Scalabrine Rule: National embarrassment angle: Broncos @ Beats, the crap bowl!

BB- don’t wager 2 brand on the Broncos bro.

Put $2000 on the Niners +600 to win the SB. 

I’m trying to exorcise some gambling demons from a year ago, buddy. Last time I gambled I turned 500$ into 5000$ in a few weeks and then put the entire amount on the NO Pelicans.

That’s right, the putrid Pelicans. They had hit rock bottom, or so I thought. They had lost several winnable games in a row, the last one on their home floor against the shorthanded Lakers, with the fans booing them. They had players only meeting after the game it was so bad. The coaches job was on the line. CJ went on a podcast that week and aired out all the dirty laundry and said the team was ready to turn things around and everyone was on the same page. 

The game was against the Rockets in Houston. The Pelicans were 3-4 point favorites and I had them on the ML. The Pelicans had a 12 point lead with 7 minutes to go in the game and they ended up gagging it away, losing the game on a 28 foot three pointer by Jabari Smith with the defender in his face. I couldn’t believe it. The Pelicans players couldn’t believe it. ESPN gave them a 97% chance of winning in the 4th when up by 12. They only relinquished the lead they had had since the middle of the 3rd quarter after that shot. 114-112 the final. 

Was I wrong? Had the team not hit rock bottom as I thought? Or was I just one game off? A bad beat? 

The next night they played the Rockers in Houston again and just to rub salt in the wound they won by 10 and covered the 3 point spread. They would then go on to win and cover the next 4 games. 119-84, 115-96, 131-110, 124-90. Those games weren’t even close. So I was off by one game! They were rock bottom, and because of that they wanted to win so bad that they somehow got nervous in the end of the game and chocked. 

Hopefully, the Broncos can avoid that fate. If not, at least one of us will have money to take them against the Jets. 

@ActionMagnet

 I'll Take Chiefs+600 SB....

Bears are straight garbage. How can anyone even reason with this team. QB has no IQ. Coaching staff calls putrid plays. Claypool is lazy. Defense can't stop a noise bleed. I would tank and move on from Fields and get Caleb Williams. Bears in shambles.

When in doubt always take the better coach and QB.

From an ex-NFL player turned writer regarding Sean Payton:

“There would always be consequences, in other words, for not performing up to the standard. And for a guy like me, who was appreciative of his roster spot and wanted to keep it, there was nothing I wouldn’t do to avoid disappointing my coach. We all felt this way, which is why we rarely got blown out.

When things are at their best in the NFL, there are real paternal feelings from players toward their coach. I will not let this man down. I will not embarrass the father. I will fight. I will fight for him because he believes in me, otherwise I wouldn’t be on this field. 

How strong are these paternal feelings at Denver Broncos headquarters right now, I wonder. Do the guys believe Sean Payton believes in them? Does Sean Payton believe in them? If he does, he has a hard time showing it. I cover the Broncos here in Denver, and not once have I heard Sean Payton praise his team. Never once has he said, “I believe in this group” or “I like the guys we have in this room.” These may read as clichés to you, but I’m telling you they’re meaningful to players.

There’s been none of that, just a lot of ho-humming and let’s wait and see. He plays more as a mercurial recluse than a father figure. Maybe it’s time for Sean Payton to turn off the film and start connecting with his players. After an ass-whooping like that, it ain’t about the scheme, it’s about the dream. Do you believe in it or not? Because you have seven days to get ready for the next test.”

Nice play Scal...

@begginerboy

I am sorry BB, but the data does not support Scalabrine's asssertion.

The query is very simple:  p:margin < -30.5 and AF

ATS:  10-14-0 (-1.67, 41.7%)

Away favorites off a loss of 31 points or more are 10-14-1 ATS.  Making the margin < -40.5 returns just one game which is even more meaningless.

One point in DEN's favor:  Matt Eberflus is a dismal 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS as an NFL head coach.

I'll pass.  Good luck.

You are missing the point. Lots of teams lose by 30 or 40. These guys gave up 70! For something to be a national embarrassment, it has to be an occurrence that rarely happens, because it is so god awful, and something everyone is talking about the next day, including grandmothers who don’t even watch sports. Stick that in your query!

We are dealing with psychological angles that defy logic, math and tends. 

Scalabrine was a horrible capper.

Teams that lost by 31+ points were all absolutely embarrassed and probably excoriated on local and national sports talk radio shows.  They all suffered incensed verbal tongue lashings from their coaches, all media, friends and maybe even family.  They have NOT shown the likelihood to bounce back the next game.

Sean Payton has lost 3 games by 31+ points in his NFL coaching career, all with NO.  The team was 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS next game.

That is hard evidence, not baseless theoretical bullshxt.

I will admit DEN can certainly cover (especially against a clueless coach) because a sample size of a mere 3 games provides ZERO predictability.

Is this the same Scalabrine who complained about snow falling in November during a Wyoming game loss and how could you cap snow happening in Wyoming?

IN NOVEMBER 

I agree with this thought process, when you have a $50 million dollar man and you're a garbage team, players tend to not care as much about the finer details 

To be fair, it was early November. 

You are the supposed expert on such things, but if you want me to do your work for you, I can do that for you. 

“Since the 1999 season, five teams were blown out by 50-plus points before the Miami Dolphins devastated the Broncos 70-20 on Sunday. Those losers went 4-1 in their next games.

Reduce the blowout criteria to 48 points and we get three more epic thumpings in the 21st century. The recipients of those thumpings went 2-1 in their next games, 3-0 against the spread. That brings the recipients of historically humiliating defeats to 7-1 ATS in recent history.”

umm they all tried with giiants after 40-0 bagle they did not cover -4.5 spread @ cards won by 2 points

That’s why I took the ML. Just win, baby! 

@begginerboy

 I gave you an upvote, but I only queried for away favorites, DEN's situation.

You are just trying to help out the forum, which is appreciated. I can certainly see a Bears' angle to this game, losers of 13 in a row, playing at home and underdog to an 0-3 Broncos team that gave up 70?! That must be humiliating in its own right. So we have a battle of the humiliated. But only one of the humiliated teams has a SB-winning coach and QB, for what that is worth. Good luck with your plays, buddy. 

Both teams have regression indicators against them. Might be better to back the ATS loser next week, that will be a very low spot for one of these teams to reach.

The way I measure regression the Bears are more likely to regress.

Broncos lost 2 close games they easily could have won where the Bears where toast in their games, getting beat up  38-20 as a 1 pt favorite.

Granted Broncos did lose the more embarrassing game 70-20 and giving up over 700 yds is crazy talk.

But Bears display regression over more games, Id lean Bears in this game myself but look to back the ATS loser next game.

Just imagine if Bears win how bad Broncos will look next week? OMG will they have reach an incredible low spot.

Same could be said about the Bears, but Broncos would look worse.

Bears play in primetime on Thursday at Washington and the line is +5.5 now. Broncos are home for the Jets as -3 point favorites. 

@begginerboy

Good luck to you, buddy.  I have found nothing on this matchup with a large enough sample size to provide any confidence in predictability.

Here is a small query which favors DEN and MIN, but I don't consider it actionable:

A and week = 4 and losses = 3 and o:losses = 3  0-3 road teams have an edge against 0-3 home teams.

ATS:  9-4-0 (2.77, 69.2)  I like an average ATS margin of 3+ points and a sample size of 20+ games to spur me into action.

Thanks. 

@begginerboy

 You're welcome.

The over and under on the Bears wins this year was set before the start of the season at 6.5 games. I personally feel that this was one game the linemakers were expecting that this was a winnable game for Chicago and you would think that when two shit teams like these two in this matchup (Yes! Both shit teams) that the obvious play if your going to be playing it is to take the shit team getting the points. 

@KK1  ER doc here. Some nosebleeds are really hard to stop. Just sayin’.