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SB Line Moves

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Posted: #26

The line at an Asian book (Megasportsworld) went from KC -1 1/2 to KC -2 1/2 just now. This movement is surprising to me as I was anticipating it to move in the other direction...what hath God wrought? 

This line might be their glass ceiling...I doubt if they will go to -3. Yet in Vegas, no movement at all...-1s and -1 1/2 is still holding firm.  

 

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

The line at an Asian book (Megasportsworld) went from KC -1 1/2 to KC -2 1/2 just now. This movement is surprising to me as I was anticipating it to move in the other direction...what hath God wrought? 

This line might be their glass ceiling...I doubt if they will go to -3. Yet in Vegas, no movement at all...-1s and -1 1/2 is still holding firm.  

 




That's a strong move , but I don't think it's indicative
of where this line is likely to go, especially here in LV.
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

That's a strong move , but I don't think it's indicativeof where this line is likely to go, especially here in LV.

Now it has swung back to KC -1 1/2...just was at that number for a few hours. 

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

According to VI , current betting trend is as follows :

...............SPREAD............M / L.............O / U

SF.............35 %............... 50 %............. 74 %

KC.............65 %...............50 %............. 26 %


These percentages will change up until kickoff.





Update : 1 / 31  7:54 am  LVT ( Las Vegas Time )
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

HOW about this the team who wore WHITE won 13 out of last 15 Super bowls

49ers are going with all white top n pants





I get it . Their uniforms match the color of the walls
of your room at the asylum .  

Different capping angle , but Good Luck 
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Posted: #31
FWIW , It looks like the money is starting to come in 
to close the gap on all three plays. 

GL  
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Posted: #32

Nothing is moving except the over/under which has dropped 1 point all of a sudden to 53.5. 

 
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Posted: #33

This better get moving tomorrow. Everyone needs to get that KC money in, lets get that shit up to -2 or -2.5. I want that big SF moneyline!

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Borgota:

Nothing is moving except the over/under which has dropped 1 point all of a sudden to 53.5. 




Where are you seeing 53 1/2 ?
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

HOW about this the team who wore WHITE won 13 out of last 15 Super bowls 49ers are going with all white top n pants

Gold Pants actually 

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Borgota:

Nothing is moving except the over/under which has dropped 1 point all of a sudden to 53.5. 





Right now , It seems to be moving lower overall
towards 54
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Posted: #37
Looks like the side is moving towards a " Pick " 




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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Looks like the side is moving towards a " Pick "

 

Where did you hear it moving to pk?  

 

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by mike214:

 

Where did you hear it moving to pk?  

 

an_cheers




It's starting to move in that direction. Tune in tomorrow 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by mike214:

 

Where did you hear it moving to pk?  

 

an_cheers




Atlantis Reno is a pk  right now  
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by mike214:

  Where did you hear it moving to pk?    
Atlantis Reno is a pk  right now

Ok, finally some line movement. Reno must be swamped with Frisco money...Vegas books are unchanged so far? 

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Quote Originally Posted by az49erdog:

WG, I'm hard pressed to figure out why the "public" $ is so centered on KC other than the obvious love affair with P.Mahomes and that screamin offense that the Chiefs have. That being said, Every angle from a "mathematical" standpoint and SOS numbers indicates a very high probability that SF owns a decided edge in critical categories ranging from Special Teams, Time of Possession, YAC, YPC, RZ Efficiency and almost total domination in key defensive areas. So, while nothing can really measure the "human" factor of the game or how each team will respond under pressure at this level, based on the data I've seen and probability numbers, I have to conclude that the wrong team is favored in this match-up by 2.25 points. I also see a lot of evidence that this game will fly over the total of 54/54.5. Given all this information, I locked in early @ the Mirage taking a 2 team parlay for 10 Dimes; SF + 1.5 / O 53.5 There are some interesting and fun Props that I like, but will post on my own Topic closer to game day. GL my Brother and see you at the "Pay Window" Amigo! 
Big bet, best of luck to you!

Europa, thanks for the vine Brother! Yeah, I cashed big LY on NE/U and hope to do the same this SB with SF & O. There's no denying that I'm a "Homer", have been for 40 years, but this game is one I capped purely with my head, not heart, all #s point to SF -1.25 and so I have to back the play. GL Buddy!

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by az49erdog:

WG, I'm hard pressed to figure out why the "public" $ is so centered on KC other than the obvious love affair with P.Mahomes and that screamin offense that the Chiefs have. That being said, Every angle from a "mathematical" standpoint and SOS numbers indicates a very high probability that SF owns a decided edge in critical categories ranging from Special Teams, Time of Possession, YAC, YPC, RZ Efficiency and almost total domination in key defensive areas. So, while nothing can really measure the "human" factor of the game or how each team will respond under pressure at this level, based on the data I've seen and probability numbers, I have to conclude that the wrong team is favored in this match-up by 2.25 points. I also see a lot of evidence that this game will fly over the total of 54/54.5. Given all this information, I locked in early @ the Mirage taking a 2 team parlay for 10 Dimes; SF + 1.5 / O 53.5 There are some interesting and fun Props that I like, but will post on my own Topic closer to game day. GL my Brother and see you at the "Pay Window" Amigo! 
I am not sure why Public Bettors take the stand thatthey do in any matchup , but  , It's helped me manytimes in finding value that otherwise may not exist.I see pros and cons on both sides of this one , andmost who will bet on a side will be able to find astat / stats that are likely support their position.I've got a few props in mind for this one as well .Let's get em   Once again , Blessings and Good Luck with your plays.

Gracias Amigo, may the force be with you!! cool

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by az49erdog:

I am not sure why Public Bettors take the stand thatthey do in any matchup , but  , It's helped me manytimes in finding value that otherwise may not exist.I see pros and cons on both sides of this one , andmost who will bet on a side will be able to find astat / stats that are likely support their position.I've got a few props in mind for this one as well .Let's get em   Once again , Blessings and Good Luck with your plays.

Gracias Amigo, may the force be with you!! cool





Thanks , bud , I'm still liking my Over 51 1/2 play

I've posted a few sides and props also . I'm looking
forward to this one , and I have a few sides with a
bias toward KC. Still looking at a few more props.

Let's get em 

GL      
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

According to VI , current betting trend is as follows :

...............SPREAD............M / L.............O / U

SF.............36 %............... 51 %............. 72 %

KC.............64 %...............49 %............. 28 %


These percentages will change up until kickoff.



Update ;   2 / 1

Starting to see a little action on the total .

GL  
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Posted: #46
 
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Posted: #47
FYI , Bookmaker , Pinnny , and BOL now have their
total up @ 54  u - 113 , 115
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Posted: #48

My guess would be that the total will go up when the drinking public starts taking KC/over.

 
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Posted: #49

Are we going to have to wait until an hour before game time to get real movement? I'm trying to be pre-gaming like a beast, I don't want to be holding off so I can drive to the casino. Hoping for some good movement today, hasn't been much so far.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by mak104:

My guess would be that the total will go up when the drinking public starts taking KC/over.



Amen , Bud. There will also a few visitors to our fair
city who will be broke before kickoff.   
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