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Reginald's NFL Plays

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

14-6 NFL YTD   broncos+7 u/41 lions+4.5 ravens+4.5 bengals+6.5   speculations with no math backing and not wagered yet: sea                 -4.5 u/45 buccaneers  u/48   browns +3.5   tail or fade... gl

 

ADDING:

Hou+3

NYG+5.5 *I've slightly more $ on this one

Seahawks u/44

---

Late game lean:

Browns now at +4 *It was at +3.5, so I might wait to see if line goes up more*

 

14-6 NFL YTD with today pending. Let's see if my math wins today.

 
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Posted: #27

18-10 NFL YTD

4-4 today...

But I got the Ws on the bigger wagers of Lions and Giants. Reading the forums during games are hilarious. There's 2 more quarters to play after half time. Teams do make adjustments (Giants).

Pending:

Managed to get the Browns+5 tonight and even flirted with the ML.

GL all!

 
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Posted: #28

18-11 NFL YTD (62%)

 

I've the Redskins covering 5.5 points about 57% of the time. I have them winning in this spot around 31%. This means the play is...

 

Redskins+5.5 @-110

 

Tail or fade...GL

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

18-11 NFL YTD (62%)   I've the Redskins covering 5.5 points about 57% of the time. I have them winning in this spot around 31%. This means the play is...   Redskins+5.5 @-110   Tail or fade...GL

 

That is what I was thinking - Dog or NO bet .... I took the NO bet

 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by stressfreelife:

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

18-11 NFL YTD (62%)   I've the Redskins covering 5.5 points about 57% of the time. I have them winning in this spot around 31%. This means the play is...   Redskins+5.5 @-110   Tail or fade...GL
  That is what I was thinking - Dog or NO bet .... I took the NO bet

 

I understand, stressfreelife, and GL on your season!

I've been developing a predictive model and testing it out. When my math has the Redskins covering 57% of the time, it means I've the right odds to bet this until it goes from -110 to -132 (56.9% implied probability). Sure, there are variables in the model that might not be properly defined, but this can be refined through time. Sometimes, it comes down to bad luck (Brees injury) and very questionable play calls (Browns on the goal line last night & some flags).

 

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

Quote Originally Posted by stressfreelife:

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

18-11 NFL YTD (62%)   I've the Redskins covering 5.5 points about 57% of the time. I have them winning in this spot around 31%. This means the play is...   Redskins+5.5 @-110   Tail or fade...GL
  That is what I was thinking - Dog or NO bet .... I took the NO bet
  I understand, stressfreelife, and GL on your season! I've been developing a predictive model and testing it out. When my math has the Redskins covering 57% of the time, it means I've the right odds to bet this until it goes from -110 to -132 (56.9% implied probability). Sure, there are variables in the model that might not be properly defined, but this can be refined through time. Sometimes, it comes down to bad luck (Brees injury) and very questionable play calls (Browns on the goal line last night & some flags).

 

Yah, I just felt it was a bad spot for a bet ....Still too many unknowns about  both those teams which is why I shied away.     GL rest of the season.

 
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Posted: #32

18-12 NFL YTD

 

Leaning on the Eagles+4, but I ran some math and really really like:

over 47 pts

 

Let this be a 2-3 units for me. Tail or Fade... GL!

 
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Posted: #33

This game's looking great.new_money_eyes

 

 
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Posted: #34

20-12 NFL YTD

Yes, ended up getting a piece of the Eagles.. but my position was very very large on the overs.moneybagmoneybagmoneybag

I ended up shoveling a lot more $ on the overs with an 88% probability o/47.

Just like tonight, I enjoy winning football wagers close to halftime or 3Q.

 

Let's continue to prosper.

 
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Posted: #35

20-12 NFL YTD

 

 

RAN SOME NUMBERS THIS MORNING, AND I'M ON THE FOLLOWING EARLY GAMES:

 

WASH+3.5 (MED/BIG BET SIZE)

WASH O/49 (SMALLER)

 

CLE+7 (BIGGER)

CLE U/46 (BIGGER)

 

NOTE:

 

I've read a lot of love on several forums/threads on the Bills+7 and Lions+7. I didn't like the odds on the Bills+7, based solely off historical analysis. I did not have much time to run predictive studies for this game, so I did not touch it. Furthermore, the Lions are banged up in a couple of key positions- Slay is out and Stafford has hip pain. Therefore, these variables downgraded the Lions' probability of covering 7, and I decided to stay away.

 

Tail or fade... GL!

 

 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

Slay is out and Stafford has hip pain. Therefore, these variables downgraded the Lions' probability of covering 7, and I decided to stay away.   Tail or fade... GL!

 

Exactly why I laid off the game,  but it would NOT surprise me if Detroit wins straight up -- If they can run the ball and control time of possession they will at least cover and may upset .... and they will be able to run on KC

 
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Posted: #37

21-15 NFL YTD

BEARS-1

JAGS+2.5

 
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Posted: #38

21-15 NFL YTD

I'm on the following tonight:

Cowboys-2.5

O/47.5

 

 
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Posted: #39

23-15 NFL YTD

 

 
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Posted: #40

23-17 NFL YTD

my #s support these, so i'll be on the following this sunday:

 

bills+3

bears-6.5

jets+14

cards+3

texans-4

bucs u/45.5

cowboys u/46.5

chiefs o/56.5

 

some notes:

-fading the titans, they're 11-17-2 as a fav' and 10-20-1 after a win for the past 3 yrs

-fav's are 5-1 in london games

-atlanta struggles against AFC teams: they're 5-22 ats

 

Tail or Fade... good luck.

 
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Posted: #41

MNF

U/48

49ERS -3 1H

 

GL

 
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Posted: #42

28-22 NFL YTD

Just got off work... purchased live game: Giants +16.5-118 on BetDSI

GL

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by Reginald_K32:

28-22 NFL YTD Just got off work... purchased live game: Giants +16.5-118 on BetDSI GL

 

Live Betting: Patriots-6.5 -135 at BetDSI

Just booked this large. Hope they win by 10.

 
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Posted: #44

29-23 NFL YTD

EARLY GAME: BUCCANEERS U/47.5

 
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Posted: #45

GL Reg -- I don't bet totals anymore, but looks good

 
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Posted: #46

29-24 NFL YTD

SAINTS+3 (LEANING ON SAINTS ML +130)

SEAHAWKS PK

CHIEFS O/55

49ERS+3

COWBOYS-7, COWBOYS ML (RISKING 3.4 FOR 1 WITH THE W)

EAGLES+3.5

CHARGERS-6

 
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Posted: #47

Bucs ML 2nd Half

 
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Posted: #48

Bucs are pathetic.

Purchased o/51.5 for game in live betting earlier, hopefully it hits to wash out this 2nd Half ML wager.

 
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Posted: #49

2ND HALF

EAGLES-2.5

 
 
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Posted: #50

33-27-1 NFL YTD

 

PENDING:

49ERS+3

COWBOYS-7, ML

CHARGERS-6

 

ADDED:

 

CARDS U/27.5 2H

49ERS +1.5 IN GAME

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