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RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!

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Posted: #201
Good luck with this one Pats backers




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There is already more cash on the Patriots spread than every other spread this season except the Saints WK 13 vs the Cowboys.

 
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Posted: #202
It’s your money Pats backers

 
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Posted: #203
Ahahah Gronk, freaking meat head
 
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Posted: #204
Perception is everything. Brady 1 TD and 3 Picks in the title game is what I take from that game. Dude threw a pick in the end zone, throw one high for Edelman and threw a game ending pick that was only negated by the 1 time all game that D Ford was lined up offsides, the luck is beyond words can ever explain . I’m already on Rams alternate lines as high as -10. 
 
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Posted: #205
You got some balls going alt lines there bud.

I’ll take my +1.5 and run with it
 
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Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

You got some balls going alt lines there bud.

I’ll take my +1.5 and run with it

There are times in this ugly business where you put aside capping and trust your gut feeling. There’s a scene in My Cousin Vinny when Pesci is explaining to his clients how he will win the case, Pesci stated that -
“ when you look at the bricks at the right angle, you’ll see that the whole case is an illusion, a magic trick” .. That’s how I see these Pats. They’ve won games strictly on coaching and schemes vs inferior and mindless coaching from the opposition. RAMS have the coaching and far superior talent. New England’s house of cards come crashing down on sunday.
 
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Posted: #207
Scal- surprised you didn’t wait for 2.5 or 3? jumped on 1.5
 
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Posted: #208
Nice My Cousin Vinny reference. Apropos...two youts 

Why didn’t I wait? I never ever ever thought squares would be stupid enough to drive this to anywhere near 3. So I took a 2.5 pt swing from -1 to +1.5 in a mere 4 hours.

Never underestimate the power of the square (and the sharps and many posters here attesting to their Pats bet).

I will say it again: if the Pats game is at 3:30 and the last game the fans see is the Rams game instead of the Brady drive this line is a pickum.

So you are basically handing the Rams 2.5 points because of a TV schedule if you take them right now. Which is insane in a Super Bowl where the Pats ALWAYS win on the last play IF they win at all!
 
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Posted: #209
Very interesting and great point on what the public saw last, which was Brady’s winning drive, thus immediately wagering on the Golden Boy. All Pats SB do indeed come down to the last drive but with 1.5,  you’re banking on a 1 point Pats win in order to cover. Chances of a 1 point win, while not impossible, is pretty slim. Do you believe Rams could win this game outright?
 
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Posted: #210

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I have to press this question:Would you give the Rams 6 points if this game was in NE?If the answer is no (no solid capper would say yes), then this is a bad line for the Pats. It’s that simple if you don’t want to dig in the weeds here!

 

SCAL, it would be 3 points. The super bowl is played on neutral field. The game is valued at a pick'em or -1 depending on whichever line you got. At Gillette, this would be be pats -3. 

 

I personally think Rams are the more talented team but Brady's legacy is on the line here. The only issue is if the Rams are pissed about the no call bs and feel like they need to prove themselves to the world that they deserve to be there and deserve to win. Im thinking Rams lead the majority of the game..and Brady again wins it in the last drive. I also don't think after the missed call, the league can have the Rams winning it. 

 
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Posted: #211

rums moneybag

 
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Posted: #212
Quote Originally Posted by PoeticJustice:

 

SCAL, it would be 3 points. The super bowl is played on neutral field. The game is valued at a pick'em or -1 depending on whichever line you got. At Gillette, this would be be pats -3. 

 

I personally think Rams are the more talented team but Brady's legacy is on the line here. The only issue is if the Rams are pissed about the no call bs and feel like they need to prove themselves to the world that they deserve to be there and deserve to win. Im thinking Rams lead the majority of the game..and Brady again wins it in the last drive. I also don't think after the missed call, the league can have the Rams winning it. 


Poetic the current line is 2.5 with reduced juice, virtually everywhere, 3 on Bovada, 3 at several places in vegas which would translate to a -5.5 line at best at Gillette and -6 at worst.

Action yes I have the Rams winning.
 
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Posted: #213

Wanna lay points with the Pats?


Ok, swallow this spoonful of Super Bowl slow-start castor capping oil...


Patriots Points Scored in 1st Quarter 

(in Super Bowls w/Brady & Belichick)

SB 36 - Rams: 0

SB 38 - Panthers: 0

SB 39 - Eagles: 0

SB 42 - Giants: 0

SB 46 - Giants: 0

SB 49 - Seahawks: 0

SB 51 - Falcons: 0

SB 52 - Eagles: 3

 
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Posted: #214

Wanna lay points with the Pats?


Ok, swallow this spoonful of Super Bowl slow-start castor capping oil...


Patriots Points Scored in 1st Quarter 

(in Super Bowls w/Brady & Belichick)

SB 36 - Rams: 0

SB 38 - Panthers: 0

SB 39 - Eagles: 0

SB 42 - Giants: 0

SB 46 - Giants: 0

SB 49 - Seahawks: 0

SB 51 - Falcons: 0

SB 52 - Eagles: 3

 
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Posted: #215
Because of precisely that Belichick will be looking to have a quick start this time around. They already showed us strong signs that this is something they're aware of and working hard to fix by coming out of the gates very fast & strong against the Chargers dominating that 1st half from the first drive. And then going up on the scoreboard 14-0 vs KC, nearly 21-0 if they hadn't thrown the interception at the goal line which was a dumb play call that won't happen again.

I look for NE to once again come out firing quickly and they will make a strong attempt to dominate early as in the previous 2 games.

Btw I know it seems like I'm on NE because I'm debating with you a lot but I'm actually undecided . I'm really trying to dig in because you're good at this and I'm looking for weaknesses in your stance.
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Posted: #216
I think it's an incredibly evenly matched game where it's very hard to figure out who the correct side is. That's how I see this.
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Posted: #217

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Wanna lay points with the Pats?Ok, swallow this spoonful of Super Bowl slow-start castor capping oil...Patriots Points Scored in 1st Quarter  (in Super Bowls w/Brady & Belichick) SB 36 - Rams: 0 SB 38 - Panthers: 0 SB 39 - Eagles: 0 SB 42 - Giants: 0 SB 46 - Giants: 0 SB 49 - Seahawks: 0 SB 51 - Falcons: 0 SB 52 - Eagles: 3
Beautiful data. But if Im not wrong, a lot of that is explained by the fact that the Pats decide to kick when they win the toss. 

This is the reason why Im betting less than my usual pre-game on the ML. I think it is very likely that we find a much better spot in play when the Pats are trailing. 

 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Because of precisely that Belichick will be looking to have a quick start this time around. They already showed us strong signs that this is something they're aware of and working hard to fix by coming out of the gates very fast & strong against the Chargers dominating that 1st half from the first drive. And then going up on the scoreboard 14-0 vs KC, nearly 21-0 if they hadn't thrown the interception at the goal line which was a dumb play call that won't happen again.

I look for NE to once again come out firing quickly and they will make a strong attempt to dominate early as in the previous 2 games.

Btw I know it seems like I'm on NE because I'm debating with you a lot but I'm actually undecided . I'm really trying to dig in because you're good at this and I'm looking for weaknesses in your stance.

Bump, this post got buried at the bottom of the previous page. Curious what you have to say.
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Posted: #219
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Because of precisely that Belichick will be looking to have a quick start this time around. They already showed us strong signs that this is something they're aware of and working hard to fix by coming out of the gates very fast & strong against the Chargers dominating that 1st half from the first drive. And then going up on the scoreboard 14-0 vs KC, nearly 21-0 if they hadn't thrown the interception at the goal line which was a dumb play call that won't happen again.

I look for NE to once again come out firing quickly and they will make a strong attempt to dominate early as in the previous 2 games.

Btw I know it seems like I'm on NE because I'm debating with you a lot but I'm actually undecided . I'm really trying to dig in because you're good at this and I'm looking for weaknesses in your stance.

Dude come on. The evidence speaks for itself. Like a boxer they start slow in bowls.

You can’t counter, “But THIS TIME that is exactly why they’ll want to start fast.”

That’s not grounded in empirical evidence as posted.

This is a close bowl! Close games can be capped! The bottom line for me is this should be a pickum, the public is all over NE, and there is a recency bias. I’ve pulled the trigger on many bets on those three things alone without even a cap, which is in the OP and thereafter!
 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

Beautiful data. But if Im not wrong, a lot of that is explained by the fact that the Pats decide to kick when they win the toss. 

This is the reason why Im betting less than my usual pre-game on the ML. I think it is very likely that we find a much better spot in play when the Pats are trailing. 


Deferring in the first quarter doesn’t lead to THAT much ineptitude in scoring. Their problems starting out are glaring and should be worrisome for a Pats backer.
 
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Posted: #221

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

Beautiful data. But if Im not wrong, a lot of that is explained by the fact that the Pats decide to kick when they win the toss.  This is the reason why Im betting less than my usual pre-game on the ML. I think it is very likely that we find a much better spot in play when the Pats are trailing. 
Deferring in the first quarter doesn’t lead to THAT much ineptitude in scoring. Their problems starting out are glaring and should be worrisome for a Pats backer.
Thanks Scal! It does impact some because if you defer you will very likely have only 1 possession in the 1st Quarter. But I checked and they have also been slow to score in the sencond quarter. Then comes the 2nd half and it usually is lights out. 

You just reinforced my position of holding my Pats bet til later on the game, and now I love my under 28,5 1st half even more. 

Thanks and BOL Scal

 
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Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Dude come on. The evidence speaks for itself. Like a boxer they start slow in bowls.

You can’t counter, “But THIS TIME that is exactly why they’ll want to start fast.”

That’s not grounded in empirical evidence as posted.

This is a close bowl! Close games can be capped! The bottom line for me is this should be a pickum, the public is all over NE, and there is a recency bias. I’ve pulled the trigger on many bets on those three things alone without even a cap, which is in the OP and thereafter!

I mean it isn't just me saying they'll want to, it's them showing they really can in all their playoff games so far this year. It looks like there's a good chance of their Superbowl history changing now.

Fair enough on your bottom line, I totally get that. 
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Posted: #223
Something like a week ago I actually recommended your writeup in the 3rd post of my system thread. We're in agreement there, according to that the Rams are most likely to cover +2.5

 
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Posted: #224
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Something like a week ago I actually recommended your writeup in the 3rd post of my system thread. We're in agreement there, according to that the Rams are most likely to cover +2.5

 


Betonline:

Yup, still waiting on Rams bettors to come to the party (i know, i know, "move it to 3...")


78% of $ on Patriots -2.5

75% of $ on Patriots -138


 
 
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Posted: #225
Hopefully those are real % ...like the pick would definitely not trust consensus % unless paid Big $ from Vegas insiders 
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