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Playoff Thread

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Posted: #1

0-0

Pending: 49ers to win Super Bowl, 10 units to win 80 units

Random thoughts/Stats:

- Teams with the better regular season point differential win 72% of time the last 5 seasons

- The regular season point differential leader has been the conference super bowl representative the last 7/10 times. The 3 times  the #1 point differential leader did not were last years patriots (#1 seed who advanced because of an offsides penalty), last years Rams (advanced because of non PI call), and the 2015 Broncos (#1 seed with dominant defense)

-Only 2 teams with negative point differential have won playoff games the past 6 season (2016 Texans and 2014 Panthers...both were the higher seed).

 
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AFC Point Differential Leaders

1. Baltimore +249

2. New England +195

3. Kansas City +143

4. Tennessee +71

5. Buffalo +55

6. Houston -7

 

NFC Point Differential Leaders

1. San Francisco +169

2. New Orleans +117

3. Minnesota +104

4. Green Bay +63

5. Philadelphia +31

6. Seattle +7

 
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Posted: #3
Nice info Bigniner 
 
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Posted: #4

Passing Yards Per Attempt - Regular Season Playoff teams

AFC

1. Ryan Tannehill 9.6

2. Patrick Mahomes 8.3

3. Lamar Jackson 7.8

4. Deshaun Jackson 7.8

5. Josh Allen 6.7

6. Tom Brady 6.6

 

NFC

1. Jimmy Garoppolo 8.4

2. Kirk Cousins 8.1

3. Russell Wilson 8.0

4. Drew Brees 7.9

5. Aaron Rodgers 7.0

6. Carson Wentz 6.7

 
Legend
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Posted: #5
Just based on the +- pt differential trend that wins at a 72% clip...

A ML that implies a 72% win probability implies a ML of 
-257

 
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Posted: #6

+/- point differential Since week 10:

 

Patriots: +6

Texans: +68

 
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Posted: #7

Playoff opponents since week 10:

Ravens

Eagles

Texans

Chiefs

Bills

 

Chiefs

Texans

Saints

Texans

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Just based on the +- pt differential trend that wins at a 72% clip...A ML that implies a 72% win probability implies a ML of -257


By comparison, if you just took the higher seed the last 5 years, you hit 68%. Not statistically significant.

 
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Posted: #9

***Kwon Alexander returned to practice today for 49ers***

cool

 
Legend
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Posted: #10
JJ Watt back at practice
 
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Posted: #11
Good stuff, thanks for posting that.....................

Do you happen to have the breakdown by round ??
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Good stuff, thanks for posting that.....................Do you happen to have the breakdown by round ??

I did, I’ll get back to it later on tonight peace_5

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:


I did, I’ll get back to it later on tonight peace_5


Awesome, thanks........
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

AFC Point Differential Leaders 1. Baltimore +249 2. New England +195 3. Kansas City +143 4. Tennessee +71 5. Buffalo +55 6. Houston -7   NFC Point Differential Leaders 1. San Francisco +169 2. New Orleans +117 3. Minnesota +104 4. Green Bay +63 5. Philadelphia +31 6. Seattle +7

Baltimore’s season point differential of +249 is third most all-time behind the 1999 Rams (won super bowl) and 2007 Patriots (lost super bowl).

 
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Posted: #15

Ryan Tannehill this season

 

117.5 passer rating (4th all-time)

9.6 yards per attempt (8th all-time)

70.3 Comp pct (11th all-time)

A legitimately all-time great season. Out of nowhere.

 
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Posted: #16

80% chance of rain forecast for gametime in New England with highs in the 30’s. Game has under written all over it.

 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Ryan Tannehill this season   117.5 passer rating (4th all-time) 9.6 yards per attempt (8th all-time) 70.3 Comp pct (11th all-time) A legitimately all-time great season. Out of nowhere.

Impressive stats...here is one I like:

Brady 40 playoff starts

Tannehill 0 playoff starts

 
Legend
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Posted: #18
Since the Titans bye week, Tannehill and AJ Brown have been the highest graded players at their respective positions by PFF.
 
Legend
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

80% chance of rain forecast for gametime in New England with highs in the 30’s. Game has under written all over it.


The winner of that game will be drained, tired, and possibly sick 
 
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Posted: #20
What bookie gave you +700 on SF to win the Super Bowl?

I need that number. (or website)
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by ParlayBuster:

What bookie gave you +700 on SF to win the Super Bowl?I need that number. (or website)
+800 on December 3rd at pretty much any reputable book after they lost to the Ravens.

 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Quote Originally Posted by ParlayBuster:

What bookie gave you +700 on SF to win the Super Bowl?I need that number. (or website)
+800 on December 3rd at pretty much any reputable book after they lost to the Ravens.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/super-bowl-odds-patriots-49ers-losses-shake-latest-betting-lines?amp

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Quote Originally Posted by ParlayBuster:

What bookie gave you +700 on SF to win the Super Bowl?I need that number. (or website)
+800 on December 3rd at pretty much any reputable book after they lost to the Ravens.
[Link from unapproved source]
Link doesn’t work, but it’s not hard to google 49ers odds to win super bowl December 3 2019. You could’ve had it, too. peace_5

 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Ryan Tannehill this season   117.5 passer rating (4th all-time) 9.6 yards per attempt (8th all-time) 70.3 Comp pct (11th all-time) A legitimately all-time great season. Out of nowhere.
Impressive stats...here is one I like: Brady 40 playoff starts Tannehill 0 playoff starts

Here’s another impressive stat:

Number of quarterbacks 42 or older to win a postseason football game in the NFL: 

ZERO

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:


Baltimore’s season point differential of +249 is third most all-time behind the 1999 Rams (won super bowl) and 2007 Patriots (lost super bowl).


that point differential for Ravens is.., never expected that. +100 more than i anticipated.. 
Sip on that plus money honey!
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