PLAY: Cleve @ Pitt (Write Up)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh -14:

First of all, this is a tricky game because we don’t know if Cleveland coaching staff has woken up to the realities of Colt McCoy, or not.  If they have, this game could take a massive shift in probability… if not, the writing is on the wall.  Due to the fact that many haters have steered clear of this thread (that I only started b/c  they pissed me off and I wanted to shut them up… I am going to give them a chance to jump on me here…make myself a target by predicting this game in detail…

This is a scary game, and anyone not treading lightly, or at least cautiously is insane, or inexperienced, or just plain stupid.   When you look at all the hot/cold variables in this one it is enough to make smoke start coming out of your ears.  Let’s take a look at it…

Inter-division game, whereas the home team is laying 14pts of chalk.  That alone makes me start to lean towards the dog.  The Favorite won 9 of the last 10—this might make some lean towards that trend continuing, but for me it creates a fade or walk scenario in most cases.  The favorite won the last 2 meetings by a combined total of 50 pts.  Pittsburgh has looked like the dominat team in the AFC at times this season, and like a team massively over-rated at others.  Clevelands D has been solid for the most part, and very much under the radar due to the anemic Colt McCoy offense. 

Cleveland absolutely can stay close to Pittsburgh IF they continually pound the running game for 55%+ of the offensive plays… but will they?  I lost a bet on Cleveland on Sunday thinking that their film break downs would make this need (to run the ball) an absolute necessity in order to have a chance, but they didn’t run the ball nearly often enough to stay with Baltimore (not counting Colt McCoys scrambles/rushes, Cleveland attempted passes 73% of the time).  

We cannot know what the motivation for Cleveland’s coaching staff is at this point.  Do they want to keep letting McCoy pass, pass, pass to see if he is the franchise future, or are they motivated to beat a hated rival in Pittsburgh Steelers and run the ball to keep Pitt’s high flying Arial crew off the field for most of the game?  McCoy cannot beat many, if any, teams in the NFL on his arm (I doubt he ever will be able to).  Is McCoy confident in his future as a NFL QB and wanting to make solid/safe decisions, or is he concerned that he has to start looking competent of he may be riding the bench somewhere next year, and willing to take unwise chances in attempting to make something happen? 

If Cleveland plays this game smart, it will be a low scoring game.  If their play calling is apparently still confident in McCoy’s arm; there will be turnovers and lucky plays to hit an easy OVER the 40 pts.

Pittsburgh is motivated to win.  They have a banged up O-line, a standard-banged up QB (what’s new right?), a middle of the pack running game (when was the last time we seen that?), and a top 10 passing game (Pittsburgh????) that is no stranger to turning the ball over (27^th ranked in turnover +/-, of which Ben threw 10 int’s)  Ben has a 10/4 TD/INT ratio over his last 6 games. 

When you look at Clevelands top ranked pass D, it looks pretty impressive giving up a league low 173.3 yards passing per game.  That will make most of us wonder how pitt will handle this averaging just 111 yds per game.  But let’s look closer at this….. Cleveland has faced (team/pass rankings) Balt/14^th, Cincy 19^th, Jax (last), STL 28^th, Houston 17^th, SF 29^th, seattle 25^th, Oakland 16^th,  Tennessee 18^th, Miami 23^rd (when Miami was really horrible),  indy 26^th, and Cincy 19^th the first time.   You get my point here… they have the #1 ranked pass D b/c they played NO ONE that can pass.  Pitt is ranked 9^th, and far and away the best passing team that Cleveland has faced

Cleveland is 3-7 ATS, now that scares me to go against.  The linemakers do their best to even these things out to offset Sharps hitting them too heavily.  Pitt is 4-2 ATS in their last 6.  Squares are heavy on Pitt to the tune of 66.4%, this also scares me.  O/U lines are much more balanced, but can Cleveland score over 13pts?  That is where the question lays.

OK, OK… so the Summary:

Pitt has been less than fantastic in their National TV games this season, where as they usually step up for these games.  Ben loves to look good in Thurs/Sun/Mon night games, and he hasn’t.  He knows he is going against a venerable pass D that is perceived to be the best in NFL.  Tomlin does not tend to blow opponents out (exception last week), and tends to slow the game down once he has a lead,  McCoy knows his job/future is riding on the next few games, and would want nothing better than to perform well vs the Pitt D, and I think he will be more chancy that even what he has been.  Cleveland has little motivation to play sound football and would benefit better by putting McCoy back out there to see if he can pass against a quality offense (AGAIN..how they don’t know he cannot is beyond me, but they keep trying). 

I think the real value is in the second half play, but I am going to put a small play on the game Over 40, and hedge it, or try to middle it @ halftime.  Reason being, that pitt should cover most of that on their own, OR McCoy could loosen up because NO ONE thinks he has a chance vs pitt, and actually have an unexpected good day..doubtfully, but feasible……Oh.. the promised extra predictions to see if I can give the haters some ammo …. Lol… if I am wrong on these predictions, I think I will even more easily hit the Over 40….

Cleveland 13-16

Pitt   24 – 31

Exact?  Pitt 27 – clev 16

Pitt:  Total yards 395

Cleve Total yards 260

Ben 290 passing  1 INT / 2 TDs …. Sacked 3 times

Actually Pitt's O-line is not banged up.. Only player "nicked" is Foster (guard)... but playing ... O-line play has been one of Pitt's improvement spots this year.. With Starks and the rookie tackle play a major surprise.. Both solid..  Legursky promotion to starter has also helped.. He deserved it..GL..