Pitt and why

Went 5-2 in posted plays for week 1.   Let's look at some numbers:

     Pitt    11   2   27    13   17    30

3  Balt    20   7    9      25    18   21

 

Balt opens up as a 3 pt fav. currently around 2.5.    Balt. is ranked 20th in off rushing rank, 7 in off. passing, 9 in def. rushing, 25 in def. passing.   Also, balt. has a sagarin rank of 18 and sched. strength of 21.    Comparing both teams we find Pitt is better in 4 categories while balt is only better in 2 (Def. rushing and sched. strength).

What does all of this mean - basically when you have an away team that is better in these 4 categories and a home team tat is better in these two categories and an opening line of 3 for the home team - history has shown the away team gets the cover and often the su victory - thus I go with pitt. 

Good luck all.

 

Buddha needs to sit under Bodhi tree and contemplate futility of using early season stats as enlightenment.

Baltimore will smoke these imposters.

I have to agree with Lancer,Baltimore cannot afford to fall 2 games back of both Pitts and Cincy and for that reason alone they cover the 2.5 and win this one by a field goal. 

lancer - you bring up a good point about the stats and how relevant they are at this point.....which is why you must try to ensure it's apples to apples by comparing the second week of football to previous seasons second weeks of football - vice using week 15.    This way it is apples to apples and makes the data more relevant.  In any analysis you should also consider the opening line number thus based on the current stats and line....pitt getting the cover is what supports my rationale.....please expound on why balt is your choice?

waiting for your response under the bhodi tree.   

Baltimore played Cincinnati and Pittsburgh played Cleveland. The stats are not credible yet.

Line didn't open at 3. Time to do a new computer run through

May you find enlightenment with the Gambling Gods

Your analysis would be solid a few weeks into the season.  At this point why would you put any stock in team rankings on yardage, offense, defence, or whatever?  Baltimore played a good team, and Pittsburgh played a lousy team, and their per game stats are not even worth comparing at this point.  It takes at least three games before those stats start to have some meaning.

Those stats and rankings mean little at this point. Not enough of a sample size to create valuable statistics. Only week 2. 

@TheBuddah , do you have any thoughts about weighting importance certain stats of off rush rank or def pass rank etc ?

Well the Steelers gave up over 380 yards of offense over 180 on the ground to a subpar Cleveland offense at home. They gave up a whopping 6.1 yards per carry and this to a relatively unknown set of running backs.

Now they go on the road and face Baltimore who played a good game (took the lead briefly in the 4th) against the Bengals in a losing effort. The Ravens only gave up 79 on the ground.

 Will Baltimore be able to gash that Pitts run defense? I say sure, why not? A suspect run D, a leaky secondary, and almost zero pass rush do not bode well for tonight's game IMO.

Yeah, Pitts won the game against Cleveland but under the microscope it was an ugly victory. Buddha, best of luck to you but I sense that the Pitts D is all smoke and mirrors. Sitting under the Bodhi tree might be where I belong after the game so...

Lmfao so I guess this means the Packers and Aaron Rodgers suck because they struggled on offense in Week 1.

Lancer - thanks for the response.

Vegasvandal - checkout donbest.com - that's where the lines originate from.

Best bets - back at ya.

Paulie/8ofcups - all we have to go on right now is one week of action - I recognize it's not a lot of sample data - thus doing a comparison of week 2's in the past against the current data for week two - makes the data more relevant along with capturing trends from the past....there are trends/patterns I used from last year for week 1....so the system I use have proven to work.....is it fail safe of course not.....are the picks I share based on high probability of success...yes....I don't post picks without substantial data to support them.    I try to post the WHY vice just because....some want to know the why others don't care.....me personally i'm a why guy.

shrimp....best of luck - the point of this form...agree disagree....we all love risk.

Magicman.....it depends on the scenario.....for example...in the Denver game this week.....based on the data and the pattern....denver should easily cover the spread......if in that game..kc had a defense total (adding def. rush rank and def. pass rank together and it was a low number 15 and below - i'd go with the away team.....however the total is 45 for kc....i'm going with Denver.)  There are nuances you will find if you start tracking this stuff.   I got 7.. 8 years of data......some trends are dominant....such as the one's in the Denver game.

just trying to make the right choice.....good luck all.

 

 

Antonio Brown 2 Td,s and over 100 yesyes

100 yes plus and 2 Td,s. Balt 0-2 baby!!

ugh