Odds of a successful Hail Mary pass for touchdown?

Question

Aaron Rodgers proved yesterday that lightning can indeed strike twice as he completed his second big hail Mary pass for a td this season and before the one yesterday completed that 50 yarder to set it up. I would be curious what the success rate on that pass is. I bet its higher than we assume. So for the last 100 hail Mary passes thrown in the nfl, what do you think? Can we estimate that 10 worked? 15? 20? 30? 35?

You may not have the data, but what do u estimate the percentage of time this has worked? His td pass screwed up my little Arizona -6.5 this weekend ... after that field goal to put Arizona up 7 seemed like a gift from above. But rather than whine about it, I'd like to know how much of a threat that pass really is. Maybe then I won't feel so robbed :-))

footballsmart · Answer

Aaron Rodgers proved yesterday that lightning can indeed strike twice as he completed his second big hail Mary pass for a td this season and before the one yesterday completed that 50 yarder to set it up. I would be curious what the success rate on that pass is. I bet its higher than we assume. So for the last 100 hail Mary passes thrown in the nfl, what do you think? Can we estimate that 10 worked? 15? 20? 30? 35?

You may not have the data, but what do u estimate the percentage of time this has worked? His td pass screwed up my little Arizona -6.5 this weekend ... after that field goal to put Arizona up 7 seemed like a gift from above. But rather than whine about it, I'd like to know how much of a threat that pass really is. Maybe then I won't feel so robbed :-))

Sareesataka · Answer

Interesting question. Out of every 10 hail marys I see, there's maybe 1 successful completion, so my best guess would be 10%, all things being equal. I say that because not every hail mary is thrown under identical conditions. Factors like wind, weather, venue, turf, the QB himself, etc can affect a successful completion.

Still seeing that 1 hail mary by Wilson of the Seahawks against the Packers in 2012. Killed my bet.

jrgumpert · Answer

I was talking to my salesman on the phone discussing probabilities just before it happened. I had -6 -150 and the push cost me 15-20K in parlay pushes.

Anyway, before the throw I said to him, for anyone else it's 100-1 but for this guy Rodgers probably only 20-1

I was on the winning side of that last one,guess I can't cry too hard.

FritoLay · Answer

I would say one hail mary is like 3-5% so going with that assumption you sir got

FritoLay · Answer

This year there was only 3 completed so very rare indeed especially 2 by same guy the other was in wasted by Jamison Winston in sh!t time...correct me if Im wrong

mgmprofits · Answer

With A Rod the success rate is at least 50%If games weren&#x27;t rigged, I think Green Bay would of played that way the entire game!

lordbettington · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Hoyer also did one for the Texans against the colts before halftime of the first colts/Texans game this year.

theclaw · Answer

I would quess it&#x27;s well under 10%. &#x9;People have a tendency to remember the spectacular but forget the moments that have no reason to remember.Who remembers all Rodgers failed hail mary&#x27;s ? Why would you ?But you&#x27;ll always remember the year he had 2, he may never have another 1 for years but who remembers that ?A good chance some web site will look into hail mary&#x27;s and report on them .

footballsmart · Answer

I can&#x27;t see it being a real skill except perhaps arm strength and the sense to throw it up very high so that the angle down provides maximum catch ability like a basketball rebound. To me, who catches,it might be more about the receivers, luck, and poor positioning by the defenders.

footballsmart · Answer

He may not have another one for years, but I think he just earned the nickname HM Rodgers! I can tell you this. His success with that pass is going to make every finish from now on that more exciting. Teams,are going to practice defending against them more now, and practice them more, and some smart website will soon have the success rate over the past 40 years of HM passes. If I had to guess, I would now say about 7 percent success rate.

thorpe · Answer

2 or 3 %, but it depends of the teams involved.

The odds are much better if your QB can

1) scramble a little to buy time

2) throw it the correct distance

3) throw it as high as possible

Rodgers does all three extremely well...

BigJoe83 · Answer

What amazes me even more is that both were clean catches right in the receivers arms. Usually successful hail mary passes hit 2 or 3 pairs of hands and then fall in the lap of someone.

footballsmart · Answer

True

mr_bollox · Answer

There&#x27;s rules for QB and then there&#x27;s Rodgers, he&#x27;s clearly one of the most naturally gifted signal callers there&#x27;s ever been, what about the pass from the pack end zone to the 40 yard line to set up the hail mary, once is a fluke, twice becomes a trend, he&#x27;s got an amazing arm

footballsmart · Answer

Indeed ... but as good as he is, making it actually happen also involves a nice bit of luck.

incognegro · Answer

j

LETGOPACK1234 · Answer

Rolling to his left on all 3 throws too...both throws to midfield from the endzone and the 2nd Mary...How many QBs can throw the ball that far, that accurate, rolling to the left???

Odds of a successful Hail Mary pass for touchdown?

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