No write up goes unturned.

I just did a really good write up and the forum will not let me post it I can see we're still stuck in the stone ages.

I'll spare everyone the write up.

Gimme the Raiders +10 -130   

Ten points in a division game feels like everyone forgot these two teams play each other twice every year and hate each other. The Broncos are the hot team right now with that six game win streak and yeah they're undefeated at home but when you dig into how they've been winning these games it's not exactly dominant stuff. They needed fourth quarter comebacks against the Eagles, Giants and Texans. That's not a team that blows people out, that's a team that finds ways to win close games.

And here's what nobody is talking about. Pat Surtain is out for Denver and he's been the best corner in football this year. First game without him they let Nico Collins do whatever he wanted in the second half. Now they're going up against Brock Bowers who just caught 12 passes last week and the Broncos have struggled all season covering tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. That's basically the Raiders entire passing game right there with Bowers and Ashton Jeanty catching balls.

The Raiders defense is actually pretty solid, they're 13th in DVOA which surprises people because this team is 2 and 6. Their problem is they can't score but they've kept games respectable on the road even when they're getting blown out on the scoreboard. They held up decent against Baltimore, stayed in it against Kansas City until the fourth quarter fell apart. This isn't some terrible defense that's gonna let Bo Nix throw for 400 yards.

Thursday night games are always weird too. Short week, everybody's banged up, the team that's supposed to dominate usually doesn't. It's been a known thing for years that dogs and unders hit way more often on Thursday nights because the favorite can't get separation. Broncos are 0 and 2 against the spread this year when they're favored by more than a touchdown. They don't cover big numbers.

The other piece is Denver really wants to run the football with JK Dobbins and grind clock. That's Sean Payton's whole thing right now, keep the defense fresh and don't let Bo Nix get hit. Raiders are actually tied for 6th in the league in yards per carry allowed so if Denver is gonna win this one it's probably gonna be 27 to 17 or something like that, not 35 to 10.

I'm not saying the Raiders win this game straight up. They probably don't. But they've covered three of their last four on the road and Denver hasn't been dominant enough at home to make me think they suddenly blow out a division rival on short rest. This number opened at 10 and hasn't really moved which tells me the sharps aren't rushing to lay the points either.

Give me the ten points with a Raiders team that has enough weapons to keep this close and a defense good enough to make Denver work for everything. Final score something like Broncos 23 Raiders 16.

Geno going to be running for his life tonight 

Raiders fan here.  Don't burn money on the faiders, this team is terrible and i wouldn't trust them with your money. 

Backing Geno Smith scares the hell out of me.

Nice write up JG! Bo Nix needs to get off his high horse!