I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence. The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.
Week 16 Card
2** Seattle PK (-105)
Chicago -5
Cleveland +14 (-120)
Philadelphia +4.5
That's it for now. Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall Record: 42-23-2 (64.6%, +27.35 units)
Sides: 35-18-2 (66.0%, +25.25 units)
Totals: 7-5 (58.3%, +2.5 units)
I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence. The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.
Week 16 Card
2** Seattle PK (-105)
Chicago -5
Cleveland +14 (-120)
Philadelphia +4.5
That's it for now. Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night.
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that. However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have. Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.
As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays. I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such). This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.
Good luck this week. Projections will be up in a minute.
Quote Originally Posted by tuco:
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that. However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have. Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.
As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays. I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such). This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.
Good luck this week. Projections will be up in a minute.
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Quote Originally Posted by InVegas:
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Much appreciated. Thanks
Quote Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
I think the Eagles are a good play this week - Possibly Andy Reids final home game, McCoy back, playing spoiler, skin's oline has injury issues for the first time this season.
I think the Eagles are a good play this week - Possibly Andy Reids final home game, McCoy back, playing spoiler, skin's oline has injury issues for the first time this season.
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