NFL wk7

YTD: +2.57u

Got smoked last week. Upped the stakes a little and had the worst week of the season so far to compound the losses. Moving on..

SF -2.5 -115 2.5u

LV +4 -110 3u

KC +3 -115 2.5u

Phi +4.5 -110 1u

NYG +10.5 -115 0.5u

leans 

Den -4.5, cle -2.5, car -3, min -6.5, Det -3.5

Im also with sf -2.5, vikes -6.5, and kc +3

GL bro 

@brn2loslive2win

love me some Vegas this weekend as well Buddy good luck 

BOL tomorrow 

@justliketoplay

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

 Raiders I know you’re strong on ATL this week. Do you get the feeling at all that this is a similar situation to last week with ATL? From what I see the public and sharp players are both aligned on ATL this week and last. Are you seeing the same situation? Are any of the respected players you know on SF this week?

@brn2loslive2win

 I think I am skipping the ATL game -- I put a note down about just how volatile they are.

From what I hear there are some sharper guys on the over now that it is down to 49.5

Some places opened it at 4.5 and they had the sharper guys bet it down right away.

For ATL, I know a few guys that took the 4.5 right away.  A couple took the 3.  But I do not know anyone that is taking 2.5.

I think a lot more public are taking SF now just because they see the movement and think they are getting a good number now.

I saw MGM had it as their 2nd most bet by total wagers for SF -2.5 and the top dollar amount bet on SF -2.5 on their public betting splits.

As far as SF at 4.5 no one I know took them.  One or two took them at 3 and hit them again at 2.5.

Maybe I can see my way to taking SF at a good 2.5 tomorrow.  The issue is that they expect money to come in on SF in the morning, because that is what they have been seeing with SF.  So, it could go back to 3.  

But for now I am skipping.

Maybe by tomorrow I will actually see a way to take SF -2.5 with you.

thanks for the info bro 

@Raiders22

 I know some folks that jumped on ATL super early. Seems that every sports media member, guys on covers, and plenty of other folks think it’s such a bad spot for SF. I really don’t know anyone who likes SF tomorrow. Still no surprise that they’re the public side. I’d imagine them and KC are the huge public sides of the week then. 

looking forward to your plays tm. Hopefully not opposite on too many. Bol 

@brn2loslive2win

Let me say something about the way I feel about the ‘bad spot’ and ‘good spot’ thing.

I think it is a ‘bad spot’ for SF.  I agree with that.

BUT is it also a ‘good spot’ for ATL?

I think there are basically four ways to pick a side in NFL games and quite a few subsets that can be fit in amongst them:

Traditional statistics or boxscore metrics

Advanced analytics metrics

Trends and situational setups 

Line movement

Some of the subsets to me are:

Personnel and scheme matchups

Regression, variance, luck analysis 

Price, probability, and expected value

But one subset that cannot be ignored is intuition and contrarianism.

I know folks that will bet as much as I do, or even more, on just trends.  They are longterm winners.

I also know folks that do it on pure ‘intuition’ or ‘gut feel’.  They are also longterm winners and I consider them to be sharp bettors.

I think we all have a sort of innate ‘feel’ for it after a while.  However, some are flat-out better at it.

Years ago I noticed that I would have a better ‘feel’ at certain times during the season.  Usually around weeks 10-14.  It was like I was getting a good idea of the psychology, or mindset, of the teams that were still fighting for playoff spots.

The problem to me is if I think a team is in a ‘bad spot’ or ‘good spot’ I need something to substantiate that or back it up.

For example, in this game I had SF -4.55.  

So, at -2.5 there is ~+7 EV at that number.

BUT is that enough to overcome the ‘intuition’ that it is a ‘bad spot’ for them?  BECAUSE I do NOT think it is a ‘good spot’.  If so, it would reinforce my model and I would go pretty large on SF.

But that would make ATL +2.5 ~-16 EV.  That would mean I would be knowingly beeting into a negative situation if there was just my modeling to consider.  

Even ATL +4.5 would be ~-4.8 EV.

So, even though I initially ‘liked’ ATL in this ‘spot’ is it enough to go with them?  

Or do I join respected bettors like @brn2loslive2win that agree with my modeling.

Or do I just skip it because ATL seems to be too streaky and volatile to me.  Whereas, SF seems on a mission and is overcoming all sorts of things.

Certain things like the west coast to east coast early games no longer provide the edge it used to.  There are only 2-3 teams that really still have a homefield advantage and ATL is NOT one of them.

This is a tricky one.