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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    +++ NFL WK 14: Sides (68.75%) | Teasers (100.00%) | Parlays (33.33%) +++

    12 Next Last»
    Nycgags
    SHOCK74
    RaiderNation925
    suuma
    berserker_76
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 5319
    Posts: 50
    12 Next Last»
     
    Nycgags
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 3:02 AM ET #1

    NFL since Wk 7
    --------------------------
    Sides 11-5-1 (68.75%) 
    Teasers 5-0 (100.00%) 
    Parlays 2-4 (33.33%) 
    --------------------------
    Overall: +28.6u

    Taking advantage of early lines

    2 Team Teasers - 6 Points

    ATL (PK) @ LAR
    OV 39
    risking 3u to win 2.31u

    SDC (+7) @ CAR
    OV 42
    risking 3u to win 2.31u
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    NFL since Wk 7
    --------------------------
    Sides 11-5-1 (68.75%) 
    Teasers 5-0 (100.00%) 
    Parlays 2-4 (33.33%) 
    --------------------------
    Overall: +28.6u

    Taking advantage of early lines

    2 Team Teasers - 6 Points

    ATL (PK) @ LAR
    OV 39
    risking 3u to win 2.31u

    SDC (+7) @ CAR
    OV 42
    risking 3u to win 2.31u
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 9:51 AM ET #2

    Adding 

    3 Team Teaser - 6.5 Points

    OAK @ KCC (+3½)
    OAK OV 40½
    CIN (+½) @ CLE

    risking 2u to win 2.8u
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    Adding 

    3 Team Teaser - 6.5 Points

    OAK @ KCC (+3½)
    OAK OV 40½
    CIN (+½) @ CLE

    risking 2u to win 2.8u
     
    SHOCK74
    SHOCK74
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:24 PM ET #3

    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5
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    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5
     
    SHOCK74
    SHOCK74
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:24 PM ET #4

    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5
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    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5
     
    SHOCK74
    SHOCK74
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:26 PM ET #5

    Treaser sorry
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    Treaser sorry
     
    RaiderNation925
    RaiderNation925
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:27 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by SHOCK74:

    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5



    Learn to read, stop betting or both!! 
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    Quote Originally Posted by SHOCK74:

    Where you get sandiego +7 it's +1.5



    Learn to read, stop betting or both!! 
     
    Nycgags
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:47 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by SHOCK74:

    Treaser sorry

    +7 sounds sweet for SDC, eh?
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    Quote Originally Posted by SHOCK74:

    Treaser sorry

    +7 sounds sweet for SDC, eh?
     
    Nycgags
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:49 PM ET #8

    Chargers only lost by 8 once all season, and lost by 7 2x the rest were <7 or they won, not bad out of 12 games.
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    Chargers only lost by 8 once all season, and lost by 7 2x the rest were <7 or they won, not bad out of 12 games.
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:51 PM ET #9

    Carolina has only beaten 2 teams by more than 7 points, 
    SF by 19 
    and
    ARI by 10 
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    Carolina has only beaten 2 teams by more than 7 points, 
    SF by 19 
    and
    ARI by 10 
     
    Nycgags
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 2:00 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by asmth14:

    The riskiest of all your bets is KC +3 1/2...


    Raiders could easily beat them by 4 in a revenge game if they can contain Smith / Kelce / Ware

    I actually feel that is the safest pick out of all of them!

    Jeremy Maclin (groin) will be a full participant at Tuesday's practice.
    It puts Maclin on track to suit up Thursday night against Oakland. He'll be returning from a four-game absence. With Travis Kelce emerging as Alex Smith's go-to target and rookie Tyreek Hill also showing promise, Maclin won't be more than a WR4 this week and going forward. Dec 6 - 12:57 PM
    Source: BJ Kissel on Twitter

    Kelce had his third straight 100-yard receiving game. His upside could be even higher this week against a good matchup that could be high-scoring when Oakland comes to town Thursday.
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    Quote Originally Posted by asmth14:

    The riskiest of all your bets is KC +3 1/2...


    Raiders could easily beat them by 4 in a revenge game if they can contain Smith / Kelce / Ware

    I actually feel that is the safest pick out of all of them!

    Jeremy Maclin (groin) will be a full participant at Tuesday's practice.
    It puts Maclin on track to suit up Thursday night against Oakland. He'll be returning from a four-game absence. With Travis Kelce emerging as Alex Smith's go-to target and rookie Tyreek Hill also showing promise, Maclin won't be more than a WR4 this week and going forward. Dec 6 - 12:57 PM
    Source: BJ Kissel on Twitter

    Kelce had his third straight 100-yard receiving game. His upside could be even higher this week against a good matchup that could be high-scoring when Oakland comes to town Thursday.
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 10:27 AM ET #11

    Snow and +15 mph winds (wind more of a factor than the snow)  Bengals have not played in conditions this bad all season, Browns have and the score has remained low.

    Adding 2 Team Teaser - 6 Points

    CIN (PK) @ CLE
    UN 49

    risking 3u to win 2.3u
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    Snow and +15 mph winds (wind more of a factor than the snow)  Bengals have not played in conditions this bad all season, Browns have and the score has remained low.

    Adding 2 Team Teaser - 6 Points

    CIN (PK) @ CLE
    UN 49

    risking 3u to win 2.3u
     
    Nycgags
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 2:23 AM ET #12

    *** Wednesday Update *** OL Oakland Raiders (OAK) G Kelechi Osemele partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play Thursday.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Darius Latham (OAK) partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play this week.

    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Stacy McGee (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DE Shilique Calhoun (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    *** Wednesday Update *** OLB Cory James (OAK) partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** S Karl Joseph (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *** Wednesday Update *** WR Jeremy Maclin (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Dontari Poe (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday but is questionable to play this week.
    ** Wednesday Update *** DE Kendall Reyes (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday but is questionable to play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** OLB Tamba Hali (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** CB Phillip Gaines (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.

    Full steam ahead! 
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    *** Wednesday Update *** OL Oakland Raiders (OAK) G Kelechi Osemele partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play Thursday.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Darius Latham (OAK) partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play this week.

    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Stacy McGee (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DE Shilique Calhoun (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    *** Wednesday Update *** OLB Cory James (OAK) partially participated in Wednesday's practice and is questionable to play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** S Karl Joseph (OAK) is out for this week's game.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *** Wednesday Update *** WR Jeremy Maclin (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** DT Dontari Poe (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday but is questionable to play this week.
    ** Wednesday Update *** DE Kendall Reyes (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday but is questionable to play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** OLB Tamba Hali (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.
    *** Wednesday Update *** CB Phillip Gaines (KC) practiced fully on Wednesday and is not on the team's injury report. He will play this week.

    Full steam ahead! 
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 3:31 AM ET #13

    KCC face great rushing matchup vs. OAK rush defense

    Back in Week Six, K.C. defeated Oakland 26-10 - at that time Jamaal Charles was still in action (9/33/1 rushing, with 2/14/0 receiving) but Spencer Ware was the main back even then with 24/131/1 rushing and two targets for 2/32/0 receiving. Charcandrick West handled 3/19/0 rushing in a bit role, and Dontari Poe had a one-yard TD run (1/1/1).

    Ware is now the lead back for the Chiefs with Charles on IR - last week, he hit Atlanta for two scores, with 14/29/1 rushing and four targets for 3/23/1 receiving. Albert Wilson added a TD rush on a fake punt (1/55/1) and all told, the Chiefs manufactured 22/123/2 rushing at Atlanta.

    The Raiders' rush D is averaging 124.8 yards allowed per game (29th in the NFL) with 15 rushing scores given out over 12 games - last week, Buffalo whacked this defense with 30/212/3 rushing. Two weeks ago the Raiders' rush defense allowed 25/129/3 to the Panthers - uh oh, Oakland fans. From Week 10 to Week 13 of regular season (the last four weeks, but includes 10 teams on byes during that time span - each team has at least three games played in the last four weeks), Oakland averages 26 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (second-most in the NFL).

    Advantage, Kansas City.

    Raiders face tough rushing matchup at KCC rush defense

    Back in Week Six, K.C. defeated Oakland 26-10 - DeAndre Washington led the team in rushing with 10/49/0 (with one target for zero receptions) while Jalen Richard (4/7/0 with three targets for 2/5/0) and Derek Carr (3/8/0 rushing) chipped in during the absence of Latavius Murray. The Raiders didn't get much going in this phase of the game back in Week Six.

    Since Week Six, Latavius Murray as come back to the forefront of the Oakland rushing attack - over the last three weeks, Murray has handled 51/160/3 rushing and 14 targets for 11/125/0 receiving, while Jalen Richard has seen 19/78/0 rushing and three targets for 3/50/1 receiving as the second-busiest running back on the roster. Jamize Olawale (2/-3/0 rushing with four targets for 4/98/1 receiving) sees an occasional pass but otherwise this is an attack dominated by Murray as of Week 14.

    The Chiefs' rush defense averages 121.9 yards allowed per game (21st in the NFL) but has only coughed up six rushing scores this year (tied for third-least in the NFL). From Week 10 to Week 13 of regular season (the last four weeks, but includes 10 teams on byes during that time span - each team has at least three games played in the last four weeks), K.C. averages 14.6 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (eighth-least in the NFL), even though Atlanta hung 30/128/2 rushing on their defensive front last week (the two rushing scores allowed was an outlier for Kansas City this year).

    This is a tough matchup for Oakland, especially since they are playing in Arrowhead Stadium this week on Thursday Night Football.
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    KCC face great rushing matchup vs. OAK rush defense

    Back in Week Six, K.C. defeated Oakland 26-10 - at that time Jamaal Charles was still in action (9/33/1 rushing, with 2/14/0 receiving) but Spencer Ware was the main back even then with 24/131/1 rushing and two targets for 2/32/0 receiving. Charcandrick West handled 3/19/0 rushing in a bit role, and Dontari Poe had a one-yard TD run (1/1/1).

    Ware is now the lead back for the Chiefs with Charles on IR - last week, he hit Atlanta for two scores, with 14/29/1 rushing and four targets for 3/23/1 receiving. Albert Wilson added a TD rush on a fake punt (1/55/1) and all told, the Chiefs manufactured 22/123/2 rushing at Atlanta.

    The Raiders' rush D is averaging 124.8 yards allowed per game (29th in the NFL) with 15 rushing scores given out over 12 games - last week, Buffalo whacked this defense with 30/212/3 rushing. Two weeks ago the Raiders' rush defense allowed 25/129/3 to the Panthers - uh oh, Oakland fans. From Week 10 to Week 13 of regular season (the last four weeks, but includes 10 teams on byes during that time span - each team has at least three games played in the last four weeks), Oakland averages 26 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (second-most in the NFL).

    Advantage, Kansas City.

    Raiders face tough rushing matchup at KCC rush defense

    Back in Week Six, K.C. defeated Oakland 26-10 - DeAndre Washington led the team in rushing with 10/49/0 (with one target for zero receptions) while Jalen Richard (4/7/0 with three targets for 2/5/0) and Derek Carr (3/8/0 rushing) chipped in during the absence of Latavius Murray. The Raiders didn't get much going in this phase of the game back in Week Six.

    Since Week Six, Latavius Murray as come back to the forefront of the Oakland rushing attack - over the last three weeks, Murray has handled 51/160/3 rushing and 14 targets for 11/125/0 receiving, while Jalen Richard has seen 19/78/0 rushing and three targets for 3/50/1 receiving as the second-busiest running back on the roster. Jamize Olawale (2/-3/0 rushing with four targets for 4/98/1 receiving) sees an occasional pass but otherwise this is an attack dominated by Murray as of Week 14.

    The Chiefs' rush defense averages 121.9 yards allowed per game (21st in the NFL) but has only coughed up six rushing scores this year (tied for third-least in the NFL). From Week 10 to Week 13 of regular season (the last four weeks, but includes 10 teams on byes during that time span - each team has at least three games played in the last four weeks), K.C. averages 14.6 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (eighth-least in the NFL), even though Atlanta hung 30/128/2 rushing on their defensive front last week (the two rushing scores allowed was an outlier for Kansas City this year).

    This is a tough matchup for Oakland, especially since they are playing in Arrowhead Stadium this week on Thursday Night Football.
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 4:11 AM ET #14

    You use fantasy points (which is hogwash) in rushing to justify a pick against a team that wins its games through the air?

    Now I have seen it all.

    Btw, I can run the ball three times a game from the 1yd-line and get 18.3 fantasy points.


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    You use fantasy points (which is hogwash) in rushing to justify a pick against a team that wins its games through the air?

    Now I have seen it all.

    Btw, I can run the ball three times a game from the 1yd-line and get 18.3 fantasy points.


     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 4:24 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

    even though Atlanta hung 30/128/2 rushing on their defensive front last week (the two rushing scores allowed was an outlier for Kansas City this year).



    2 rushing TDs are an outlier for every defense in the league, because the average is 0.84 this season.

    The Falcons scored 2 rushing TDs, because they had 1yd to go on each score and have a good OL and good running game. Coincidentally, the Raiders have do have the latter two as well.




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    Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

    even though Atlanta hung 30/128/2 rushing on their defensive front last week (the two rushing scores allowed was an outlier for Kansas City this year).



    2 rushing TDs are an outlier for every defense in the league, because the average is 0.84 this season.

    The Falcons scored 2 rushing TDs, because they had 1yd to go on each score and have a good OL and good running game. Coincidentally, the Raiders have do have the latter two as well.




     
    berserker_76
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 6:08 AM ET #16

    BOL man
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    BOL man
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 8:46 AM ET #17

    This suuma is so desperate, it is getting comical.  How much you lay on OAK?
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    This suuma is so desperate, it is getting comical.  How much you lay on OAK?
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 9:37 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    You use fantasy points (which is hogwash) in rushing to justify a pick against a team that wins its games through the air?

    Now I have seen it all.

    Btw, I can run the ball three times a game from the 1yd-line and get 18.3 fantasy points.



    Maybe if there was a Jelly Donut in the endzone.
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    You use fantasy points (which is hogwash) in rushing to justify a pick against a team that wins its games through the air?

    Now I have seen it all.

    Btw, I can run the ball three times a game from the 1yd-line and get 18.3 fantasy points.



    Maybe if there was a Jelly Donut in the endzone.
     
    hit-and-run
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 10:57 AM ET #19

    nycgags... would you go for kcc +3?
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    nycgags... would you go for kcc +3?
     
    hit-and-run
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 10:58 AM ET #20

    nycgags... I mean would you go for KCC -3
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    nycgags... I mean would you go for KCC -3
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 11:09 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by hit-and-run:

    nycgags... I mean would you go for KCC -3

    I'm still considering it, need to weigh it against the other options this weekend, I'll post it for sure if/when I do.

    So far I like all of the information available to me to make that bet, I already have money on it in the form of a teaser, looking forward to watching the game regardless.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit-and-run:

    nycgags... I mean would you go for KCC -3

    I'm still considering it, need to weigh it against the other options this weekend, I'll post it for sure if/when I do.

    So far I like all of the information available to me to make that bet, I already have money on it in the form of a teaser, looking forward to watching the game regardless.
     
    hit-and-run
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 11:13 AM ET #22

    thanks.
    I was about to pull the trigger for KCC -3...  
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    thanks.
    I was about to pull the trigger for KCC -3...  
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 11:16 AM ET #23

    Derek Carr in 3 road games in temps below 50
    DEN '14 18/36 158 YDS 1/1
    DEN '15 12/29 135 YDS 2/0
    KC '15 21/33 194 YDS 1/1
    52% CMP 4.96 Y/A

    One other thing that came to mind. Derek Carr has relatively small hands. Alex Smith has bigger hands than him. Hand size matters in cold weather. Something to consider.
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    Derek Carr in 3 road games in temps below 50
    DEN '14 18/36 158 YDS 1/1
    DEN '15 12/29 135 YDS 2/0
    KC '15 21/33 194 YDS 1/1
    52% CMP 4.96 Y/A

    One other thing that came to mind. Derek Carr has relatively small hands. Alex Smith has bigger hands than him. Hand size matters in cold weather. Something to consider.
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 11:26 AM ET #24

    Betting trend is steadily moving in KCC's favor, take it for what's worth here's a comparison of the low/high confidence for KCC, currently it is at 54%, down from 57% 3 minutes ago.

    HOME/AWAY

    12/4 10:43PM 14% / 86%
    12/7 07:08PM 57% / 43%
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    Betting trend is steadily moving in KCC's favor, take it for what's worth here's a comparison of the low/high confidence for KCC, currently it is at 54%, down from 57% 3 minutes ago.

    HOME/AWAY

    12/4 10:43PM 14% / 86%
    12/7 07:08PM 57% / 43%
     
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 11:35 AM ET #25

    Probably just sticking with my teaser, I don't like the juice my book had 20% for -3 and in the past few minutes it has moved -3.5, just going to roll with what I have already got and enjoy the show, should be an entertaining game!

    BOL 
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    Probably just sticking with my teaser, I don't like the juice my book had 20% for -3 and in the past few minutes it has moved -3.5, just going to roll with what I have already got and enjoy the show, should be an entertaining game!

    BOL 
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