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NFL Week 9 Sunday...

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Posts: 114

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Nov. 5, 2024 - 12:21 PM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: Almost, hold fast. This season will take years off of my life. I still hold to the process. I try to make smart changes, but I haven't gotten traction the whole season. Not going anywhere. Still time to have a successful season. Very sorry to hear how much stress this is putting on you. Your record is unsurpassed by anything I've seen. And I have no doubt you will finish the season in the black. But, I've been doing this for nearly 50 years and I don't care who you are, no one is immune from a bad run. I once lost 17 NFL bets in a row. Obviously thought about quitting. Then I ran a Phil Simms like 22-3. You know better than I do--if you play long enough you're going to take hits. A bit of gambling levity. When I went 0-17, my local told me a story about a hapless guy who lost 20 straight football games. Feeling bad for him, he suggested that maybe the guy try something different, maybe hockey. The guy replied " but I don't know anything about hockey." Hang in there. You're exceptionally good at this.

Thanks Ken. Very kind.

I am not dismayed. We keep grinding.

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

nostradumbass

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 445

Posted: Nov. 5, 2024 - 5:31 PM ET #102

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you aren't on 4casters.... Cavemen looking up at the stars. I am trading faster than Jordan Belfort after an 8ball.

I tried to join 4casters but I didn't have a invite code so it put me on a waitlist. Do you have an invite code to get around the wait?

Thanks!

C-70Blues

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2024

Posts: 850

Posted: Nov. 5, 2024 - 6:38 PM ET #103

As someone relatively new to this site and your writeups, you come off as someone who CAN'T lose, like the gambling world is somehow aligned against you. You said you've been "extremely unlucky" when you should be taking ownership of the losing record you have had all season. Let me sum it up like this -

You, vanzack, are an NFL head coach. Last year your team had a winning record because your team was the best running team in the league. You led the league in yards per rush, yards per game and rushing touchdowns. You team was unstoppable.

This year, you have the exact same personnel but for some reason you team is now unable to run the football at all and you are losing games you would have won the previous season. You go up to the podium after the game and someone asks you what's wrong with the team. Your response is this - "We're doing the same thing we did last year but it's not working. We're not going to make any adjustments because our luck is bound to turn. Process> short term results. The reason we are losing is because we've been extremely unlucky."

That is pretty much how you summed up your season so far. No accountability whatsoever. And if you think the first half of the season is taking years off your life, wait until the real losing begins. It's only a matter of time before panic sets in and you start chasing because your ego can't handle all the losing. Buckle up because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.

MRxKrazz

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 11486

Posted: Nov. 5, 2024 - 7:01 PM ET #104

Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues:

As someone relatively new to this site and your writeups, you come off as someone who CAN'T lose, like the gambling world is somehow aligned against you. You said you've been "extremely unlucky" when you should be taking ownership of the losing record you have had all season. Let me sum it up like this - You, vanzack, are an NFL head coach. Last year your team had a winning record because your team was the best running team in the league. You led the league in yards per rush, yards per game and rushing touchdowns. You team was unstoppable. This year, you have the exact same personnel but for some reason you team is now unable to run the football at all and you are losing games you would have won the previous season. You go up to the podium after the game and someone asks you what's wrong with the team. Your response is this - "We're doing the same thing we did last year but it's not working. We're not going to make any adjustments because our luck is bound to turn. Process> short term results. The reason we are losing is because we've been extremely unlucky." That is pretty much how you summed up your season so far. No accountability whatsoever. And if you think the first half of the season is taking years off your life, wait until the real losing begins. It's only a matter of time before panic sets in and you start chasing because your ego can't handle all the losing. Buckle up because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

very well written.

i follow because the OP do have a long successful pattern.

I miss his insight this season, he haven’t been around much maybe due to the unsuccessful season through 9 weeks.

the few times he left his insight, he was talking about pass rush and how it’s a big make up of his bets for the week, yet he was on the panthers more than once this season, and I really do not understand it. I’m more for picking his brain, trying to understand how a successful capper come up with his picks. After 9 weeks, I truly can not find a pattern to why?

and after seeing you type this up, kind of make sense, we will see how his season ends up, although it’s really not that hard to be about 50% win rate. Especially for someone as good as him.

cool

very well written.

i follow because the OP do have a long successful pattern.

I miss his insight this season, he haven’t been around much maybe due to the unsuccessful season through 9 weeks.

and after seeing you type this up, kind of make sense, we will see how his season ends up, although it’s really not that hard to be about 50% win rate. Especially for someone as good as him.

cool

BET2WIN4

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 3182

Posted: Nov. 15, 2024 - 8:52 PM ET #105

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Someone on Twitter asked me about if recent results are attributable to variance or something wrong with what I am doing. This is my answer - it has a lot to do with what people post in my threads here also.... Things change in the NFL. Year to year, week to week. The one change I am most vulnerable to is favorites covering without statistics to back it up. That is happening a lot this year, and even with adjustments - I cant overdo it. This is the most outlier season in the last 10 with regards to that specific situation. So either the NFL has fundamentally changed and the predictors of the last several years are somewhat worthless, or we have had 9 weeks of outlier data and or results. Impossible to tell. Only time will tell. When statistical predictors become less reliable, the market is more random by definition. I do not like risking money on randomness. So my eyes are open. Fortunately, the amount I am down so far is overcomable and not extreme - but I look more at what is causing it that is giving me stomach pains. My backtesting is showing no way for me to win in some weeks. That has never really happened. This is due to randomness. If I want to bet randomness, I will just go to a casino. If you cant have predictors, you cant have success year on year. My set of predictors have proven to be close to worthless this season. Will that continue? That is the only answer to your question. Its not so much that favs are winning (they are). That would be bad, but not terminal. What is terminal is that favs win without the backup of the predictors also. That is terminal.

sum1 on X also azed if u cn expln da no juice bt u choz 2 BLK hm insted quiet

BET2WIN4

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 3182

Posted: Nov. 15, 2024 - 8:52 PM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you aren't on 4casters.... Cavemen looking up at the stars. I am trading faster than Jordan Belfort after an 8ball.

fnny imm on dat site 0.02 cheepr thn penny NO JUICE MY quiet

ass

BET2WIN4

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 3182

Posted: Nov. 15, 2024 - 8:52 PM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues: Quote Originally Posted by wmi799: @C-70Blues You are the last person who should say this. All you do is complain when someone doesn't agree with your view I haven't called a single person on this board a degenerate. Also, did you play the prop I posted for Monday Night? I wagered a 1/2 unit, that's half of one unit, and I'm way ahead of vanzack who has been posting every week. It's more advantageous to pick your spots instead of betting half the board every week. Less is more. Now lets do the last 7 years.... I will go first. Average +65 units per season. Not one losing season. You? The "pick your spots" position is so dumb. So I am going to limit myself to a certain number of plays per week? Some arbitrary quantity in an arbitrary time period? What if this weeks 4th best pick that doesnt make the list is next weeks best pick? I win with edges and volume. When you have an edge, the more volume the better. Thats simply how it works. Keep doing your thing. It is kind of funny how 100 of your 150 lifetime posts are in my threads. Countdown to 101....

NO1 I mean NO1 cares lst 7 yrs, TLAK NOW! hiding hiding behind 7yrs an_roll_laugh

C-70Blues

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2024

Posts: 850

Posted: Dec. 22, 2024 - 10:56 AM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues: Winners talk about the present and take ownership of their losses. You blame your losses on bring unlucky. That is a recipe for disaster. I'll check back after the games are complete. Your momma was unlucky the day you were born. 102?

I called him out on accountability and he responds with a personal attack on my mother. Hardly the response from someone who is living the dream life as he states he is. You should have brushed off what I said and gone about your business but that remark did bother you and your ego.

Looking back on your posts it looks like you fell into a huge trap this year and that's thinking you're so good all you have to do is show up and you'll win. You did not have a contingency plan for the season you're having because you were too full of yourself.

Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.

C-70Blues

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2024

Posts: 850

Posted: Dec. 22, 2024 - 11:08 AM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: Almost, hold fast. This season will take years off of my life. I still hold to the process. I try to make smart changes, but I haven't gotten traction the whole season. Not going anywhere. Still time to have a successful season.

Here's the quote I mentioned earlier.

Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.

C-70Blues

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2024

Posts: 850

Posted: Dec. 22, 2024 - 12:16 PM ET #110

Not a peep from vz.

Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.

Bitters

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2024

Posts: 501

Posted: Dec. 22, 2024 - 12:33 PM ET #111

THESE GUY'S ALL WRITE UP THIS HUGE ARTICLE ON HOW THEY SEE THINGS ON GAMES AND BLA BLA BLA DON'T Y'ALL GET TIRED OF WRITING ALL THE BS THEN LOSING THE PLAY BECAUSE EVERYTIME I READ WHAT THIS CLOWN POSTS ITS BEEN A LOSER OR ABOUT BITCOIN?

WHO THE FUCK CARES ABOUT BITCOIN ON A SPORTS BETTING FORUM THIS GUY IS THE FACEBOOK OF COVERS AND ALL YA ALL THAT FOLLOW HIM ARE HIS LOSING PUPPETS. THIS CLOWN TALKS BITCOIN ON A SPORTS THREAD BECAUSE HE CAN'T PICK ANY WINNING PICKS THIS CLOWN DOES NOT HAVE MULTIPLE HOMES OR MILLIONS OF SHARES OF ANYTHING, IF HE DID PEOPLE AND PUPPETS WHY THE FUCK WOULD HE BE SPENDING ALL HIS TIME HERE WITH ALL THE MONEY AND ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING ELSE TO DO IN THIS WORLD LMFBO THIS CLOWNS AVATAR IS EVEN FAKE. THE FACEBOOK OF COVERS, BET YOU'RE ON FB AS WELL PROBABLY GAYBOOK TOO

an_roll_laugh an_woo an_happydude