NFL Week 6 Ponderings

After a 2-4-1 September, October has been good to me so far. I've gone 4-1 the last two weeks so I'm at plus money for the year....... barely (+0.4 units). On to Week Six! Here are the current lines with the home teams in CAPS.

Thursday, Oct. 15th

Seahawks -2' BRONCOS - I don't see much to like about either team. Seattle MAY have a QB issue. Sam Darnold led the NFC with 14 interceptions a year ago (before going on his postseason run), and he's already thrown five this season in the three games he's played. And they have no running game, with Kenneth Walker now in KC and their top two backs injured. They're 3-2, but if not for a couple of bad turnovers could easily be 5-0. Sean Payton took over play calling duties for Denver from OC Davis Webb last week, but the Broncos only gained 224 total yards against the Chargers and were lucky to escape with a win. MAYBE Darnold can take advantage of a secondary that's missing CB Pat Surtain and S Talanoa Hufanga but I'm not betting on it.

Sunday, Oct.18

Jaguars -2' Texans - Another London game. Yuck. I barely survived in my survivor pool when Jacksonville bailed me out with a miracle win, but this game shouldn't have been close. The Jaguars had 176 more total yards than the Eagles but kept stubbing their toe in the red zone. They stayed in London for their second straight game there, which SHOULD give them the advantage over Houston, which is making that arduous trip across the pond after being on the road last week at Tennessee. While it's a major scheduling advantage for the Jags, the Texans are the far more desperate team. At 1-4 they're already in must win territory. Not sure they'll get it done though.

More later.

Yeah that Jags/Texans line is suspicious to me.

I enjoy your ponderings and bol. 

Bears -1' FALCONS - Looks like Chicago's Caleb Williams and Atlanta's Michael Penix are both good to go for this game, but just how good to go are they really? How mobile will Williams be with that tender hammy? Mobility is such a big part of his game that it has to be taken into account. The Bears were blown out at Green Bay last week and both backup QBs were terrible, so it almost feels like Williams is coming back out of necessity. As for Penix, his injured ribs are on the right side, and he throws left-handed so MAYBE he won't be so limited. Not having him for the overtime period against the Ravens was the difference in the game with Tua Tagovailoa throwing a game ending interception. With the Bears missing three Pro Bowl starters on defense I'm liking the Falcons here.

Ravens -4' BROWNS - Baltimore rallied behind backup QB Tyler Huntley to beat the Falcons in OT last Sunday in Atlanta. Lamar Jackson has yet to practice this week, but whether he plays or not Huntley has proven to be a more than capable backup. The Ravens LOOK like the right side here, but with them off a win as a road dog and now coming into this one as road chalk I wouldn't be shocked to see Cleveland pull the upset. The Browns are 7-1 ATS as a home dog since last season with four outright wins!

COLTS -7 Titans - Tennessee sucks. Cam Ward hasn't shown any improvement in his second year as a starter (77.2 passer rating). The travel weary Colts return home, and maybe RB Jonathan Taylor breaks loose for his first 100 yard game of the year. I kinda like Indy here, but with Daniel Jones having an even worse passer rating than Ward (73.6) I'm not in love with it. 

PATRIOTS -7' Jets - Not sure if RB Breece Hall will be back for the Flyboys, but backup Braelon Allen filled in nicely last week with 116 yards rushing (4.8 YPR) in a win over the Browns. Drake Maye looks like he's returned to form for New England, and it feels like the Patriots oughta cover this number, but after last week's action NFL favorites of more than seven points are now 3-10 ATS so far this season. 

Saints -1' GIANTS - Feels like the wrong team is favored in this one. After two impressive efforts on the road New Orleans has lost their last three, all at home. Tyler Shough seems to be going through a sophomore slump and the Saints haven't been able to muster much of a run game. As for the G-men, Jameis Winston has emerged as a team leader and had his best game last week at Washington in a 17-17 tie. Speaking of that game, Cam Skattebo had a costly fumble in scoring position that cost his team a win. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a breakout game here.

Panthers -3' EAGLES - The NFL really needs to do a better job of scheduling. Carolina is off a bye and Philadelphia is coming off that loss in London and SHOULD have a bye this week. Aside from that, the injury news went from bad to worse for the Eagles with Jalen Hurts now sidelined with a blood clot. All things being equal this line should've been Philly -6 or 7 points. And yet would anyone be surprised if the Eagles somehow win this? 

Steelers -2' BUCCANEERS - Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU, ATS and ITS (in the stats) at home and 0-2 SU, ATS and ITS on the road. They had a huge scheduling advantage last week, off a Thursday night game in Cleveland with the Colts returning from a trip to London, and made it pay off with a 34-22 win. Now it's Tampa Bay with the advantage, coming off a huge Thursday night upset at Dallas. Teams off a Thursday night game with extra rest are 9-1 SU and ATS so far this season. Bucs rookie QB Jalon Daniels played well last week and I don't see much of a dropoff between him and Baker Mayfield. Bucky Irving gives the Bucs offensive balance. This is another game where it seems the wrong team is favored.

Sunday afternoon 

RAMS -12' Cardinals - Arizona won its' only game of the season at this very same stadium against the Chargers in Week One. Deja vu? Probably not. The Rams had another special teams breakdown that cost them big time in Monday's loss to Buffalo. They allowed a 70 yard return of the opening kickoff and missed two field goals, and on top of that allowed the Bills to rush for over 200 yards. Not exactly the stuff that Super Bowl teams are made of. They're my survivor pick this week. Doesn't mean I think they'll cover this big number.

CHIEFS -7' Chargers - The Chargers actually led Denver in the fourth quarter last week, 17-10, but Jim Harbaugh decided to gamble on a fourth and one play at L.A.'s 41 yard line. The gamble failed, the Broncos tied the score and then two Justin Herbert turnovers led to a pair of field goals and another loss. Herbert was sacked five times behind a decimated offensive line that had four rookie starters. Kansas City is unbeaten and off a bye but historically struggles against this team. They're just 1-4 ATS in the last meetings in KC.

Bills -4' RAIDERS - Buffalo is on a short week after their Monday night escape in L.A. and elected to stay on the West Coast to prepare for this game. They'll have to avoid a letdown against a Las Vegas team that played their worst game of the season last week in Foxboro against the Patriots. BUT, two weeks ago the Raiders took the Chiefs down to the wire, and that's the team I expect to show up Sunday against the Bills. Slight lean to the Silver and Black.

GL this week mah man always a pleasure to read @Boisestateand8

Sunday night game

PACKERS -1 Cowboys - Dallas was embarrassed big time in their 24-16 upset loss at home vs. Tampa last Thursday as  9' point favorite. Green Bay played their best game of the season last Sunday, a 31-7 spanking of Chicago as a small underdog, with Bears QB Caleb Williams watching from the sidelines. Watch what happens here. The Cowboys fall into that 9-1 SU and ATS trend I mentioned in my Steelers-Bucs writeup. They've had three extra days to stew over that humiliating loss. The Packers still have a depleted roster and coming off that huge blowout win over their hated rival, I think the 'Boys are the right side here. Before last week's outcomes they would've been a slight favorite so there's line value to be had here. Full disclosure, I've already bet this game at +2 with a local book.

Monday night game

49ERS -7' Redskins - San Francisco has that "look" of a Super Bowl contender. They're arguably the best team in the NFL, although I haven't written the Rams off just yet. Not only are the 49ers good, but they're also catching the breaks, such as that inexplicable gift TD Seattle gave them at the end of the first half in last week's 32-29 win. Speaking of gifts, Washington's gaffe in overtime last week, when they let the clock run out while in field goal range, ranks right up there with the Seahawks' boo boo. The Niners SHOULD win this by at least ten points, but I RARELY lay more than a TD in the NFL and I'm not doing it here.