Posted:
#1
season --- 7-4 ATS, won 2.05 units
Other system --- 4-2 ATS
Browns +3.5 over Wash --- .55 units to win .5 units
NFL WEEK 5 ................................2024
Posted:
#3
@theclaw
Finally CLV looks like a solid play.
Jayden Daniels has been SO hot that queries return virtually nothing. For example, querying slightly below his last 3 completion percentages returns NO other previous games.
p:CP > 80 and pp:CP > 80 and ppp:CP > 78 yields NO query results except the WAS-ARZ game. NO other QB in this database has ever been this hot.
CLV's passing DEF has reversed last year's stark differences. This year it has been better in the two road games. Of course WAS's passing OFF is much better than JAX's and LV's.
Posted:
#13
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
@theclaw Finally CLV looks like a solid play. Jayden Daniels has been SO hot that queries return virtually nothing. For example, querying slightly below his last 3 completion percentages returns NO other previous games. p:CP > 80 and pp:CP > 80 and ppp:CP > 78 yields NO query results except the WAS-ARZ game. NO other QB in this database has ever been this hot. CLV's passing DEF has reversed last year's stark differences. This year it has been better in the two road games. Of course WAS's passing OFF is much better than JAX's and LV's.
@theclaw Finally CLV looks like a solid play. Jayden Daniels has been SO hot that queries return virtually nothing. For example, querying slightly below his last 3 completion percentages returns NO other previous games. p:CP > 80 and pp:CP > 80 and ppp:CP > 78 yields NO query results except the WAS-ARZ game. NO other QB in this database has ever been this hot. CLV's passing DEF has reversed last year's stark differences. This year it has been better in the two road games. Of course WAS's passing OFF is much better than JAX's and LV's.
Yes I did see that online, best ever completion % after this many games.
Crazy, Something like the 1st time since the 40's both teams got points on every possession was the Monday night game.
Posted:
#14
Wash doesn't really fit any regression indicators but as a mediocre team they do. I think they are only going to be at best very mediocre.
Hence why I am only going half a unit.
Mediocre teams rarely could meet the level of extreme play needed for my regression indicators.
For one, their defense is just as bad as the offense has been good. The offense is not very likely to sustain this great play, the defense likely will sustain this poor play.
Posted:
#15
Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units
Dolphins being a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it.
The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better that'd make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team.
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units Dolphins being a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it. The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better that'd make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team.
Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units Dolphins being a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it. The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better that'd make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team.
only if Tua is playing b/c the Dolphins really do suck without him
“The average erect gorilla penis is 3cm (1.25 inches) long”
Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by buffer:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units Dolphins being a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it. The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better that'd make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team. only if Tua is playing b/c the Dolphins really do suck without him
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units Dolphins being a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it. The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better that'd make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team. only if Tua is playing b/c the Dolphins really do suck without him
It's regression, that's where magic happens buffer .......................
Posted:
#20
Some trends I saw online I thought were interesting......
Dogs of over 6 pts are 65% ATS past 20 years
Team plays 3 home games then goes on the road, 45% ATS. 15-32 past 5 years.
After playing the Bills since Allen , teams are 33-53 SU. Teams after playing the 9ers are worse.
Won 4 straight games by 7 pts or less 16-27 ATS 37%
IF fav by 3 or more 32% ATS .......fade KC
Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Some trends I saw online I thought were interesting...... Dogs of over 6 pts are 65% ATS past 20 years Team plays 3 home games then goes on the road, 45% ATS. 15-32 past 5 years. After playing the Bills since Allen , teams are 33-53 SU. Teams after playing the 9ers are worse. Won 4 straight games by 7 pts or less 16-27 ATS 37% IF fav by 3 or more 32% ATS .......fade KC
Some trends I saw online I thought were interesting...... Dogs of over 6 pts are 65% ATS past 20 years Team plays 3 home games then goes on the road, 45% ATS. 15-32 past 5 years. After playing the Bills since Allen , teams are 33-53 SU. Teams after playing the 9ers are worse. Won 4 straight games by 7 pts or less 16-27 ATS 37% IF fav by 3 or more 32% ATS .......fade KC
The query works for "won 4+ straight games by 7 points or less." The query:
streak > 3.5 and p:margin < 7.5 and pp:margin < 7.5 and ppp:margin < 7.5 and pppp:margin < 7.5
ATS: 16-27-0 (-1.4, 37.2%) I personally would not fade KC on just this query alone. An average ATS margin of only -1.4 points provides little confidence and little margin for error.
I am not a fundamental handicapper, but I did uncover these nuggets which might put me on NO:
There has been a lot of chatter about how good KC's DEF is this year and that it compensates for a weaker-than-usual OFF. Comparing the passing DEF stats from NFL.com, sorting the team passing DEF stats by rating puts NO #1 at 68.0 and KC #21 at 94.2. That is a huge gap.
Mahomes is missing some weapons this year and it shows. Checking out Mahomes at Pro Football Reference, I was surprised to see that he is the all-time career leader at PY/game with a whopping 293.3! He is averaging just 226.0 this season with 6 TDs and 5 INTs.
Good luck everybody.
Posted:
#23
OTOH, Jeff Sagarin has KC ranked #1 and NO #20. His ratings say that KC has faced a tougher Strength of Schedule: #11 vs. #25.
He certainly knows more about football than I do. A link to his ratings page which currently features a powerful quote from Colin Powell:
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm
Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
I wonder if TheClaw thinks NO might be due for some negative regression on their stellar passing DEF which has allowed just 1 TD while grabbing 6 INTs, but NO has still lost its last two games.
I wonder if TheClaw thinks NO might be due for some negative regression on their stellar passing DEF which has allowed just 1 TD while grabbing 6 INTs, but NO has still lost its last two games.
I don't do offense or defensive regression, I may talk about it but only when it applies along with team regression. I'm sure you could but I haven't researched that out to know what to look for. NO is off 2 SU & ATS losses I'd lean more to them ATS this week.
And remember they were one of my 3 biggest performers week 1. I think they bounce back VS KC.
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