NFL Week 3 Ponderings

Thursday, Sept. 24

PACKERS -5' Falcons - I only made two plays last week and both involved these two teams. Took Atlanta +3, thinking there wasn't enough of a dropoff between Falcon QBs Tua Tagovailoa/Michael Penix and Cooper Rush to justify Carolina being favored. Got my ass handed to me as the Falcons proceeded to throw five interceptions. I pushed on the Jets +3 vs. Green Bay, but it FELT like a loss. The Jets blew a 17-7 fourth quarter lead and wound up losing in OT, despite holding the Packers to a mere 100 total yards through the first three quarters. Penix and Tagovailoa are both expected to be available for this game, but neither one of these teams inspire much confidence.

Sunday, Sept. 27 - early games

BILLS -7 Chargers - The Bolts are a hot mess, losing their first two games by identical 26-14 scores to the Cardinals and Raiders, respectively. They MAY rise up here, but are facing an early start time for a west coast team. Buffalo is on another level right now, and has an extra few days prep time having played last Thursday. The Bills defense can be had; they've allowed 31 points in each of their first two games, but Josh Allen and that offense are clicking! I'd be surprised if this line doesn't go up.

Panthers -2' BROWNS - Carolina is off a blowout win as a road favorite vs. a division rival,  and is favored on the road again vs. a non conference opponent. Letdown? Cleveland stunned Tampa Bay on the road last week, led by QB Deshaun Watson who went 24 of 30 for 238 yards and two scores. Initial lean to the home "dawg" in this one. Might "pound" it. 

LIONS -6' Jets - Flyboys SHOULD be 2-0, and will try to rebound off a tough loss. Detroit's defense has allowed a total of 915 total yards in two games. 

Texans -2' COLTS -  Houston's vaunted defense has been leaking oil over the first two weeks of the season. Hard to trust them as road chalk, but Indy has given up over 500 yards to both the Ravens and Chiefs (7.25 YPP). With both teams sitting at 0-2, this is an early must win scenario.

JAGUARS -3 Patriots - New England QB Drake Maye has thrown four interceptions in two games. If he can play clean in this one I THINK they're the better team. They play solid defense and the Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson duo gives them the better rush attack. If the Pats don't wilt in the Florida humidity I like their chances.

Chiefs -11' DOLPHINS - KC looks like a team on a mission, and Miami is the worst team in the league. I'm not playing it, but a double digit home dog in the NFL always grabs my attention.

GIANTS -2' Titans - Tennessee gave it their all as a home pooch vs. Philly last week, losing in the final seconds, 24-20. The G-men lost more than a football game in L.A. Monday night with QB Jaxson Dart leaving the game with a knee injury on his first series. He may be out for the year.

Bengals -3' STEELERS - Cincy's second straight road game is a biggie, a divisional showdown with the defending division champs. The Bengals look like a playoff team, while Mike McCarthy's Steelers are trying to find their offensive footing. 

Seahawks -7 REDSKINS - Second straight road game for the Super Bowl champs, off a 31-7 rout of division rival Arizona. It's also an early start time for another west coast team, but under HC Mike Macdonald Seattle is an impressive 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS on the road. Washington lost QB Jayden Daniels to an elbow injury, but backup Marcus Mariota is capable.

Late games later.

Sunday late games 

49ERS -8' Cardinals - I thought Arizona might be pretty good this year, off of what I observed in their Week One upset of the Chargers. But a little shine came off that win after the Bolts followed that up with a loss to the Raiders. Last week at home in a 31-7 blowout loss to Seattle the Cards learned just how far they have to go to be a Super Bowl contender. Now they have to go to San Francisco to face another Super Bowl caliber team. Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

Vikings -1' BUCCANEERS - This line feels like a trap with Minnesota off back to back wins vs. division foes, including last Sunday's 9-3 rock fight in Chicago, and Tampa Bay opening 0-2 after being upset at home by Cleveland, 23-19. It looks like Kyler Murray will be behind center for the Vikes, but will that be an upgrade over Carson Wentz? This is another instance of a team from the north attempting to deal with Florida heat and humidity in September.

Ravens -3' Cowboys - This game is being played in Brazil, and will come down to which team handles the long travel better. Your guess is as good as mine. I HATE these international games with a passion!

SAINTS -3 Raiders - This game has a special significance to us folks in Boise, with Vegas RB Ashton Jeanty facing off against New Orleans HC Kellen Moore, two of the greatest players to ever suit up for Boise St. The Raiders are 2-0, but wins over the rebuilding Dolphins and struggling Chargers aren't near as impressive as what the Saints have done on the road the first two weeks of the season, as well as at the end of last season. The combination of Moore and QB Tyler Shough has been dynamite, with 'Nawlins on a 5-3 SU, 8-0 ATS run. Granted, in only one of those games were they favored (by a mere one point at Tennessee last season), but this line seems light to me. Feels like the Saints win this by AT LEAST a TD in their home opener. Who dat!

Rams -2' BRONCOS - This is the second matchup of teams from the best divisions in each conference; the NFC West vs. the AFC West. L.A. recovered nicely from their Australian disaster with a 28-6 rout of the Giants, who lost QB Jaxson Dart after the first series. Denver also rebounded from a bad loss at KC, with a 20-13 come from behind win over the Jags. Hard to pick a side in this one, but it's worth noting that the Broncos have won 15 of their last 17 at home. 

Monday, Sept. 28

Eagles -4' BEARS - Chicago opened as the favorite here, but that changed quickly after Caleb Williams' injury. To make matters worse, backup QB Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol. The Eagles are playing their second straight road game after surviving that upset bid at Tennessee. 

No official plays yet until the injury reports are updated at the end of the week. And these aren't predictions, just a list of the matchups with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS.