Unusual week for me in that I will most likely be rooting for more favs than dogs. The theme this week is keep it simple.
Pittsburgh pk
Posted this in last week's thread. Keeping up with this week's theme the simple way of looking at this game from the Pittsburgh perspective is they will more than likely play very well this week. It should be a bounceback effort after a complete debacle against the Chargers. Many veterans have said they simply didn't have anything left in the tank and weren't ready to play after such an emotional win in Baltimore the week before. I love betting veteran teams who shit the bed the week before as they usually know how to get focused and atone for bad performances. This team has a good track record under Tomlin after a bad loss as they are 11-5 ATS after losing by more than 3 points and perhaps more significant for this game because of the price is the fact they are 14-2 SU in those games with one loss coming in OT.
The Dallas Cowboys are about as Jekyll and Hyde as they come. They are woefully inconsistent and tend to follow up good games with duds. Just when you think they are playing up to their potential they make mental error after mental error and leave you shaking your head. This team is 2-11 ATS the past two seasons after a SU win including 0-6 ATS after winning and also covering. Let's also look at the fact that Dallas really isn't that good. They have a slew of injuries on defense and their offensive line is offensive. I think most that watched the game last week would tell you Cincy lost it with a pleothra of drops on both sides of the ball more than Dallas won it. The energy situation is something to watch as well after the very emotional win last week it will be tough not to avoid a small hangover even when facing the Steelers.
I'll keep it simple and take the team that is coming to play against the most inconsistent team in the league who are going to have to dig deep to be as emotionally charged as they will need to be to beat a pissed off Steelers team.
Arizona +......???
Week in and week out there are 1 or 2 games where most people only focus on one team because they are either the greatest thing since sliced bread or the worst abomination to ever walk the planet. But those people often fail to look at the other team in that matchup. This is one of those games.
I really don't care what happened to the Cards last week. They were on the road in a very tough place to play with no offense. They turned the ball over time and time again and they probably did quit. They were on an 8 game losing streak and had no chance once they got down 14. Who wouldn't quit in that situation? The thing is that everybody now knows they quit and they embarrassed themselves. Nobody likes embarrassing themselves. I believe Arizona is going to be motivated and will show up strong for this game. As bad as the offense is Arizona still has a strong defense (when they haven't gotten fed up with the offense). The Cards haven't given up more than 24 offensive points at home in a year (14 of the 31 to STL came via two pick 6's). I also believe just based on line value this is a good bet as we are probably getting close to a full FG based on last week's 58-0 final score.
Now we get to the other team. I feel fairly confident the Cardinals are going to play hard and with pride on Sunday. I also feel fairly confident the Lions are going to lay down like dogs. There is not a single shrivel of evidence that suggests Detroit cares about this game. They have absolutely NOTHING to play for. Playoffs? Nope. Winning record? Nope. Division rivalry? Nope? Playing spoiler against a playoff team? Certainly not. Last week the Lions said they were jacked to play their rivals in the snow on national TV. They actually played pretty well but still managed to play a textbook Lions game and ended up blowing it and losing. Detroit is exactly the type of horribly-coached team stuffed with malcontents that goes on the road with nothing to play for and lays down.
Keep it simple: Arizona is a home dog with a strong defense that will be highly motivated. Detroit is a horrible team (8 ATS wins in their last 25 games) with nothing to play for that will probably mail this one in. Even if they get a lead they will probably find a way to blow it because that's what they do. I'll hold out for a 6 but I will be on the Cards regardless of the line.
Cleveland +/-....
I'll be on the Browns where it's Griffin or Cousins in this one.
Good spot to fade Washington off some really big wins (Cowboys, Giants, huge comeback to beat the Ravens in OT). It is really tough to string together games week in and week out where your energy level is sky high and here against a 5-8 OOC team I see a flatspot. Let's not pretend the Skins are some juggernaut either. Their defense is still terrible and at this price range against a team that has a really good defense I think they are in tough. From the QB point of view even if Griffin plays I can't see how he isn't greatly effected from the injury. He couldn't even walk at the end of the game last week. I loved Cousins at Michigan State but I don't love him being asked to win a road game in the NFL in his first career start.
The Browns may be playing as well as the Skins. This team is gradually improving and they have played hard all season. They've only lost 4 games ATS but have stayed under the radar and I believe they still hold value. The defense is tough and with Phil Taylor and Joe Haden back they are really tough. Taylor is a monster who is like Vince Wilfork where he ties up two blockers every play. The Browns have 14 sacks in 4 games since he's returned to the starting lineup. They clearly have the better defense and although the offense is not great they are starting to build some chemistry. Realistically Cleveland is only two plays away from being 7-6.
Not a good spot here for Washington against a good up and coming team. I like Cleveland to close out their home schedule (where they've only lost twice by more than 1 point) with a win.