NFL Week 12: Sunday Plays

One of the biggest mistakes some handicappers make is letting emotion get in the way of their handicapping proccess.  My past losses betting against the Patriots have to be treated as "sunk costs".  No matter what I do in the future with this team, those losses I can not get back.  Instead of jumping ship from a short term losing angle (like betting against the Patriots), the proper handicapping process is to reaccess the team that you have been continuing to lose on, and if warranted, increase the valuation of the particular team.  I have done that.  I value the Patriots higher than I did a month ago, however, in my opinion, their market price has been increasing at a higher rate than their true value, implying that they still look like a -EV team GOING FOWARD. 

Books have been getting killed by them this year and expect one sided wagering on them.  What does this lead to?  They come up with a spread they think it is worth, and simply inflate it a few points in expectation for the one sided wagering - creating value on the opponent.

Patriots backers are making a killing on them.  Their increased money and "sure bet mentality" makes them not price sensistive at all.  They will bid up the price no matter the number, inflating their line some more.

 A lot of people who think the Patriots are undervalued have lost a lot of money on such a notion.  Like you suggest, they have now jumped ship.  So instead of value bettors somewhat off setting the one sided action- they are on the sidelines.  Therefore, the market pendulum never goes back down, allowing the bubble to continue to increase.

As an ongoing concern, I will continue to bet against the Patriots as long as I deem them a -EV opportunity.

Fundamentally speaking, I think the Jags are fairly priced.  So unless there are intangibles favoring their chances of winning, I can not reccommend them as a play.  They are coming off two big games against AFC contenders, beating the Titans and Chargers.  Next week they go into Indy for an opportunity to make a last push for the division title.  In the past, they have been known to play down to the level of their competition, especially in a "trap-like" predicament.  The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.  They should be motivated to keep this game close, and may try harder to not allow the Jags to run away with it.  '

I have no lean on the side, but still like the Over.

Quote Originally Posted by HowWinWolf:

Buffet,

        Listen bro, I had alot of respect for you until I saw your Eagles writeup which you took word for word from another site that I lurk on. Since I'm not a basher, I won't exploit where it came from but I think it was pretty weak and if that's what it takes to earn respect so be it and I wish you all the luck in the world. Or maybe I just have it wrong and that's the way you want it. If so I apoligize.

What site are you referring to?

Quote Originally Posted by HowWinWolf:

Buffet,

        Listen bro, I had alot of respect for you until I saw your Eagles writeup which you took word for word from another site that I lurk on. Since I'm not a basher, I won't exploit where it came from but I think it was pretty weak and if that's what it takes to earn respect so be it and I wish you all the luck in the world. Or maybe I just have it wrong and that's the way you want it. If so I apoligize.

What site are you referring to?