NFL Week 12

nothing but haters in here.  having the same issue in a thread I started.

anyway keep up the great work GG

Quote Originally Posted by Tm0n3y916:

bol GG. not to be a d1ck. but don't bet against the pack again. if u want to give away money, ill send u my paypal address

Most likely be betting against them next week as their market perception and continual success creating turnovers should regress as it's almost impossible for teams to accomplish what they are doing.  This is nothing personal against who's favorite team the Pack follows, however when purchasing stock you can't continue to buy high and sell high...It just doesn't work.  The market is overvaluing the Pack and even with a lopsided win.  I will most likely be against them next week. 

This is not definite but their success rate can not be sustainable.  I wish people would understand that its not just saying that "hey, that teams good and yes, I took them and they beat the Lions".  I am great at gambling.  I love that market sentiment.  It makes me more money in the long run because people are afraid of betting against the Packers thus making the line larger and overall my options on whatever team more viable week to week. 

It's like when Roy Hobbs is in the natural tearing it up and the bookie says to him, he's cost him a pretty penny because Roy's killing it, but the bottom line he was driving the price so high the bookie is always betting against him and ends up ahead when Roy goes in the tank...I'm already betting against the Packers not because they are so great but the market perception and reality is the numbers on the handicap NVL are not sustainable over time. 

It's like the Patriots years ago in 2007.  My biggest wager was week 17 vs the Ny Giants in which the Patriots were on the road laying 13.5.  I see the Packers having the same results.

Interesting notes for that unbelievable Patriots team that they covered from week 12-17, guess how many weeks?  Answer below...

1.  Yup that's right...Only week 14...

THIS IS WHY I WILL BET AGAINST THE PACKERS ONCE AGAIN>>>

Information only...for those who don't get the NFL STOCKMARKET..

GLTA

Oh..And TM,

Any day of the week I will purchase a play via Pay Pal..You take the Pack vs spread closing line and I'll take the opposing teams.    Good luck..

hey gordon, we view sports in a similar fashion using a market philosophy. What are your thoughts on Cleveland +7

I had em last week when they covered over Jax. However what I noticed in that game was Cleveland had a lot of missed fg's and dropped td passes. Game really wasn't as close as the score dictates.

Love to hear your thoughts

Smartbets,

I'll let you in on a secret, I've teased Cleveland more than any team in the NFL this season and have had a succesfull time doing it.  I understand teasers can be difficult and you'll have handicappers out there stressing the non value in them, however with +EV teasers taking 1 unit into 1.8 can be profitable.  Akilles, who is across the street has had a great run, and if you look at the ten games that Cleveland's played only 2 games fell outside the 10 pt range.  Cincinatti with a ten point loss in week 1, at San Fran 10 pt loss (winner) and at Houston loser. 

Cleveland should be in this game with the ability to win it outright in the end.  I know Cincinatti will try and run the ball keeping Dalton in good passing situations, (as well as McCoy). 

I don't see the Browns getting blown out.  They have been hanging around the 7 pt mark all week and I think the market is efficient at this pricing.

I'll be back...

gordon, i respect ur leans fuck the haters, i was on lions ML VERY BIG myself,only to bang a 5 teamer the next day to get my money back,too bad i followed that up with a shitty saturday,but after bangin unlv ML las nite i ride hi into today

gl

Today's Play (Small Card)

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee

Tampa Bay comes up to play an inconsistent Titans team who showed a little bit of heart trying to come back last week on the Falcons.  They used their rookie QB for the 2nd half and though he did show some spark was inconsistent on some throws (10-20) yards.  The Bucs have played the toughest schedule in the NFL.  They've looked great vs some tough teams but then have had some letdowns leading to their 4-6 record.  Thoughts of making playoffs have dwindled..and outright will be difficult. 

It looks like Blount will come back to the team that released him and look for some revenge.  Freeman threw 2 key interceptions that led to the loss.  Tampa Bay has kept things close and that's why we see the line holding steady at 3 and I don't expect it to come off this number. 

Tennessee has been one of the higher penalized teams in the league.  This is a horrible stat to have as most teams put themselves in 2nd and 3rd and longs while allowing other teams to have 2nd and 3rd and shorts.  The Bucs are a young team and this will be a key road test for them.  Both teams must win to even sniff the playoffs.  With the Bucs almost beating the Pack, they now go into a game which should be a slugfest in between the tackles.

Coach Munchak has focused all week on holding your blocks and continuing your blocks so Johnson can get to the linebackers and Strong safety.  If the Titans are going to be able to do this they will be more than successful.  The Bucs struggled and were dominated by the 49ers especially within the tackles.  It's shut up or show up time for Johnson..

The Bucs rank rank 25th in the league for average rush yards per attempt on defense.   This is not a good thing when the Titans will focus on Johnson to take pressure off of Hasselbeck or Locker (doesn't matter in my mind).  Look for Locker for some key rollouts. 

Titans have played these defenses who control the run on defense   so far:  Baltimore #5 (loss), Cincinatti # 3 (loss), Atlanta #2 (loss),  Houston #4 (loss), Pittsburgh # 6 (loss)..OUT OF THE TOP 6 RUN DEFENSES, THEY'VE PLAYED THE TOP 5 .  IF WALTER PAYTON AND JOHN RIGGINS WERE IN THE BACKFIELD THEY STILL WOULDN'T BE RANKED IN TOP 20 RUSHING THE BALL.

They've had success with everyone else even beating Baltimore at home early in the season and winning every other game. 

TAMPA BAY IS 27TH IN RUN DEFENSE.

If Munchak keeps the ground attack heavy, I see this as a lopsided win.

LARGE, LARGE PLAY TENNESSEE TITANS -3 + 105

Quote Originally Posted by wonwiththehook:

and

Won and others..

Quote Originally Posted by stopweeping:

Lol, look at all the Monday morning Qb's.. Bestkeptsecret proclaims to have had the Packers and also went 3-0 on Thanksgiving yet when I scrolled back on his page I did not see those plays posted ... Forget haters and tools like this and keep hitting your POSTED plays.

Thanks Stop,

We do what we can to try and make our bankrolls higher and win money for others.