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#1
YTD: 30-20 ATS
Kansas City +3.5
Despite covering last week I think we can still buy low on the Chiefs. This line is saying that Pittsburgh would only be -3 over Cincy on a neutral field based on KC's common oppnents the last couple of weeks and I think that is at least a couple points off.
One reason this line is inflated is because of Cincy spanking the Giants from start to finish last week. My problem with that is does that one game erase the fact that the Bengals had lost 4 straight beforehand and had played pretty awful football for the better part of a month? Not to this bettor. The Bengals in my eyes are a bad team and bad teams just aren't good enough to play consistently at a high level from one week to the next. The fact that Cincy beat up a Giants team (that was reeling I might add) in their best game of the season just suggests to me that they won't play up to that level again because bad teams rarely do in these spots. Sure they have Dalton and Green but Cincy doesn't do anything else really well. Their rushing offense is one of the worst in football, their rush D is 23rd in efficiency, and despite a lot
of sacks their passing defense gives up a terrible 67.5% completion percentage (31st in the NFL) and also 7.4 yards per pass which is 20th. This game also sees Marvin
Lewis laying more than a FG on the road. Is this team good enough to be laying road wood to anyone?
The Chiefs are still playing hard. Even though the losses are piling up you can look back at their past games and there really isn't many where you can say they've thrown in the towel and laid down. Their issue has obviously been the turnovers. Last week they finally didn't lose the turnover battle and look what happened they nearly won as DD dogs though Ben did get hurt. There is still talent on this team and I think their defense can have success against a one dimensional Bengals offense. I also think KC can have success in the run game with Charles and Hillis against a weak Bengals front. This is a very winnable game for KC to finally get off the snide and even with a conservative guy like Crennel I wouldn't be surprised to see them empty the bag of tricks to finally give the home fans something to cheer about.
Arizona +10
Continuing the theme of buying low this week I hit the Cards. Long gone is their 4-0 start and now fresh in everyone's mind is the fact this team looks dreaful on offense
and has lost 5 straight games and haven't covered since September. Now they can sneak in fresh and rested off the bye under the radar with that solid defense and perhaps catch the Falcons napping. This is a ton of points to give to a team that still has a very solid defense (though Campbell is iffy) and despite the numbers has an offense that looked to be coming around a bit in their last game before the bye. With Skelton still back there and 2 weeks to get ready they may find a rhythm here.
Atlanta is simply not good enough to lay double digits. Although there are playmakers galore in the pass game the reality is the rest of this team is weak. The run game has disappeared and the defense may be even worse than previous years sitting 30th in yards per rush, 26th in yards per pass to go along with 24th in 3rd down D and 23rd
in redzone D. Arizona has by far the better defense and they are the team catching double digits.
The stats are what they are but perhaps the biggest factor here for the Falcons is emotionally. They are coming off a really tough loss against their biggest rival. Now they play a team that has lost 5 straight while looking terrible. This is a tough game to get up for at this stage of the year. Making matters worse is the Falcons havea reason to look past the Cardinals considering they play big division games @ Tampa and against the Saints in the 11 days following this one. Atlanta doesn't blow teams out consistently either. 5 of their 8 wins have come by 7 points or less and the one really impressive win they have (over Denver) came thanks to three Manning picks and came in a game they would have lost had it gone 5 more minutes. I think this game is a lot closer than most believe.
Pittsburgh +3.5
Big Ben is a heck of a QB but one man does not make the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is one of the best organizations in sports because they've got leadership at every level and always have a backup plan. Ben has missed several games the last few years under Tomlin and the Steelers have always survived. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SUsince 2008 without Big Ben with both SU losses coming to the Ravens by 3 points (1 in OT on the road). Leftwich may seem like a bum but IMO he's an ideal backup. He's a veteran player with loads of experience who is not going to be intimidated by the situation that he's walking into. Give him a full week of reps with players he's been around for years and I think he'll do a fine job of managing the game and making plays when needed.
Let's keep in mind that despite beating the Raiders by a million last game the Ravens still have holes. Their run defense has been exposed at times this year and with
the Steelers finding a run game with multiple backs I expect them to pound the rock in this one. The Ravens pass defense has actually been their biggest weakness ranking 19th in yards per pass as they have had trouble covering since Webb went down (starting CB Jimmy Smith also already ruled OUT for this game) and their pass rush has been real bad at getting to opposing QB's ranking 25th in sack percentage.
September 24th, 2000. That was the last time the Steelers were catching more than a FG at home in the regular season when they covered as 7 point pups against TEN. Crazy.
Even I couldn't believe it was that long. Counting that Titans game Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS as home dogs (the rest all 3 or less) over that same span. Again, Big Ben is a hell of a player and Pittsburgh has no chance to win the Super Bowl without him but Pittsburgh is one team where the starting QB is not worth 7 points because the rest of the entire organization is so solid that they can survive for a period of time. I expect all these guys to play their asses off here at home on national TV against their rivals who swept them last season.
One last thing that should be noted is the Ravens have been very inconsistent on the road and rarely do they win by over a FG on the highway against anybody decent. This year their lone road win by 4 points or more came against a team that currently sports a 2-7 record. Last year their road wins
by 4 or more came against a 2-14 team, a 4-12 team and a Bengals team that beat no one good all year. In 2010 it was wins over a 5-11 team, a 6-10 team, and a 2-14 team.
In 2009 they did have an impressive 5 point road win over a 13-3 Chargers team (in September) but their other wins on the road by 4 or more came over two 5-11 teams.
Pittsburgh even without Big Ben is better than all of those teams and they are better than Baltimore and have a great chance to win SU at a big price.
Kansas City +3.5
Despite covering last week I think we can still buy low on the Chiefs. This line is saying that Pittsburgh would only be -3 over Cincy on a neutral field based on KC's common oppnents the last couple of weeks and I think that is at least a couple points off.
One reason this line is inflated is because of Cincy spanking the Giants from start to finish last week. My problem with that is does that one game erase the fact that the Bengals had lost 4 straight beforehand and had played pretty awful football for the better part of a month? Not to this bettor. The Bengals in my eyes are a bad team and bad teams just aren't good enough to play consistently at a high level from one week to the next. The fact that Cincy beat up a Giants team (that was reeling I might add) in their best game of the season just suggests to me that they won't play up to that level again because bad teams rarely do in these spots. Sure they have Dalton and Green but Cincy doesn't do anything else really well. Their rushing offense is one of the worst in football, their rush D is 23rd in efficiency, and despite a lot
of sacks their passing defense gives up a terrible 67.5% completion percentage (31st in the NFL) and also 7.4 yards per pass which is 20th. This game also sees Marvin
Lewis laying more than a FG on the road. Is this team good enough to be laying road wood to anyone?
The Chiefs are still playing hard. Even though the losses are piling up you can look back at their past games and there really isn't many where you can say they've thrown in the towel and laid down. Their issue has obviously been the turnovers. Last week they finally didn't lose the turnover battle and look what happened they nearly won as DD dogs though Ben did get hurt. There is still talent on this team and I think their defense can have success against a one dimensional Bengals offense. I also think KC can have success in the run game with Charles and Hillis against a weak Bengals front. This is a very winnable game for KC to finally get off the snide and even with a conservative guy like Crennel I wouldn't be surprised to see them empty the bag of tricks to finally give the home fans something to cheer about.
Arizona +10
Continuing the theme of buying low this week I hit the Cards. Long gone is their 4-0 start and now fresh in everyone's mind is the fact this team looks dreaful on offense
and has lost 5 straight games and haven't covered since September. Now they can sneak in fresh and rested off the bye under the radar with that solid defense and perhaps catch the Falcons napping. This is a ton of points to give to a team that still has a very solid defense (though Campbell is iffy) and despite the numbers has an offense that looked to be coming around a bit in their last game before the bye. With Skelton still back there and 2 weeks to get ready they may find a rhythm here.
Atlanta is simply not good enough to lay double digits. Although there are playmakers galore in the pass game the reality is the rest of this team is weak. The run game has disappeared and the defense may be even worse than previous years sitting 30th in yards per rush, 26th in yards per pass to go along with 24th in 3rd down D and 23rd
in redzone D. Arizona has by far the better defense and they are the team catching double digits.
The stats are what they are but perhaps the biggest factor here for the Falcons is emotionally. They are coming off a really tough loss against their biggest rival. Now they play a team that has lost 5 straight while looking terrible. This is a tough game to get up for at this stage of the year. Making matters worse is the Falcons havea reason to look past the Cardinals considering they play big division games @ Tampa and against the Saints in the 11 days following this one. Atlanta doesn't blow teams out consistently either. 5 of their 8 wins have come by 7 points or less and the one really impressive win they have (over Denver) came thanks to three Manning picks and came in a game they would have lost had it gone 5 more minutes. I think this game is a lot closer than most believe.
Pittsburgh +3.5
Big Ben is a heck of a QB but one man does not make the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is one of the best organizations in sports because they've got leadership at every level and always have a backup plan. Ben has missed several games the last few years under Tomlin and the Steelers have always survived. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SUsince 2008 without Big Ben with both SU losses coming to the Ravens by 3 points (1 in OT on the road). Leftwich may seem like a bum but IMO he's an ideal backup. He's a veteran player with loads of experience who is not going to be intimidated by the situation that he's walking into. Give him a full week of reps with players he's been around for years and I think he'll do a fine job of managing the game and making plays when needed.
Let's keep in mind that despite beating the Raiders by a million last game the Ravens still have holes. Their run defense has been exposed at times this year and with
the Steelers finding a run game with multiple backs I expect them to pound the rock in this one. The Ravens pass defense has actually been their biggest weakness ranking 19th in yards per pass as they have had trouble covering since Webb went down (starting CB Jimmy Smith also already ruled OUT for this game) and their pass rush has been real bad at getting to opposing QB's ranking 25th in sack percentage.
September 24th, 2000. That was the last time the Steelers were catching more than a FG at home in the regular season when they covered as 7 point pups against TEN. Crazy.
Even I couldn't believe it was that long. Counting that Titans game Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS as home dogs (the rest all 3 or less) over that same span. Again, Big Ben is a hell of a player and Pittsburgh has no chance to win the Super Bowl without him but Pittsburgh is one team where the starting QB is not worth 7 points because the rest of the entire organization is so solid that they can survive for a period of time. I expect all these guys to play their asses off here at home on national TV against their rivals who swept them last season.
One last thing that should be noted is the Ravens have been very inconsistent on the road and rarely do they win by over a FG on the highway against anybody decent. This year their lone road win by 4 points or more came against a team that currently sports a 2-7 record. Last year their road wins
by 4 or more came against a 2-14 team, a 4-12 team and a Bengals team that beat no one good all year. In 2010 it was wins over a 5-11 team, a 6-10 team, and a 2-14 team.
In 2009 they did have an impressive 5 point road win over a 13-3 Chargers team (in September) but their other wins on the road by 4 or more came over two 5-11 teams.
Pittsburgh even without Big Ben is better than all of those teams and they are better than Baltimore and have a great chance to win SU at a big price.
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. If those teams have a bad day it will be a rough Sunday knowing I pissed away money on shit.
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