Howdy gang! It's football time! Here are the current lines and a few thoughts on all the Week One action. Home teams in CAPS.
Wednesday, Sept. 9
SEAHAWKS -3 (down from -3') Patriots - New England will try to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl loser jinx, but there's no getting around the fact that this year's schedule is far tougher than the one they played a year ago. Including playoff wins the Pats won 17 games last season, which is more than the previous three seasons combined! That in itself screams regression, but they made some nice additions in the off-season, acquiring WRs A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs as well as S Kevin Byard. The jury is still out though on an offensive line that surrendered 22 QB sacks in four postseason games. Surprisingly, Seattle's 28 turnovers were the second most in the NFL last year, although they didn't turn the ball over once in their last four games and had eight takeaways. The champs return pretty much intact except for a few notable exceptions. Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker is in Kansas City now, and backup Zach Charbonnet is on the PUP list, meaning first round rookie Jadarian Price has some big shoes to fill. Also missing from a year ago are DBs Coby Bryant and Rik Woolen, and when you also factor in injuries to Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada, it appears the 'Hawks could be vulnerable on the back end of their defense, that is IF Drake Maye has time to throw. Should be a great game!
That's it for now. More later.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Howdy gang! It's football time! Here are the current lines and a few thoughts on all the Week One action. Home teams in CAPS.
Wednesday, Sept. 9
SEAHAWKS -3 (down from -3') Patriots - New England will try to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl loser jinx, but there's no getting around the fact that this year's schedule is far tougher than the one they played a year ago. Including playoff wins the Pats won 17 games last season, which is more than the previous three seasons combined! That in itself screams regression, but they made some nice additions in the off-season, acquiring WRs A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs as well as S Kevin Byard. The jury is still out though on an offensive line that surrendered 22 QB sacks in four postseason games. Surprisingly, Seattle's 28 turnovers were the second most in the NFL last year, although they didn't turn the ball over once in their last four games and had eight takeaways. The champs return pretty much intact except for a few notable exceptions. Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker is in Kansas City now, and backup Zach Charbonnet is on the PUP list, meaning first round rookie Jadarian Price has some big shoes to fill. Also missing from a year ago are DBs Coby Bryant and Rik Woolen, and when you also factor in injuries to Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada, it appears the 'Hawks could be vulnerable on the back end of their defense, that is IF Drake Maye has time to throw. Should be a great game!
One other thing to keep an eye on in tonight's game should it be close. Seattle PK Jason Myers had the fizzies in the preseason, missing on three of five field goals and two of three extra points! Buyer beware.
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One other thing to keep an eye on in tonight's game should it be close. Seattle PK Jason Myers had the fizzies in the preseason, missing on three of five field goals and two of three extra points! Buyer beware.
Rams -3' (up from -2') 49ers in Melbourne Australia - I hate these international games with a passion from a betting standpoint. The 49ers have been down under for over a week now, getting acclimated body clock wise, while the Rams are set to arrive roughly 28 hours prior to game time. San Francisco gets many of their injured players back. TE George Kittle and DE Nick Bosa are both expected to play, but just how much they'll be in the lineup remains to be seen. OLB Dre Greenlaw is also listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. The Rams are healthy, and on paper are the most talented team in the NFL with the acquisitions of all world DE Myles Garrett and CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watkins, plus the return of certain Hall of Famer Aaron Donald from retirement. Donald didn't make the trip for this game though. The winner of this game will be whichever team handles the long travel better. Your guess is as good as mine.
More to come in a couple of days.
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Thursday, Sept. 10
Rams -3' (up from -2') 49ers in Melbourne Australia - I hate these international games with a passion from a betting standpoint. The 49ers have been down under for over a week now, getting acclimated body clock wise, while the Rams are set to arrive roughly 28 hours prior to game time. San Francisco gets many of their injured players back. TE George Kittle and DE Nick Bosa are both expected to play, but just how much they'll be in the lineup remains to be seen. OLB Dre Greenlaw is also listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. The Rams are healthy, and on paper are the most talented team in the NFL with the acquisitions of all world DE Myles Garrett and CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watkins, plus the return of certain Hall of Famer Aaron Donald from retirement. Donald didn't make the trip for this game though. The winner of this game will be whichever team handles the long travel better. Your guess is as good as mine.
A couple of observations from these first two games:
I had concerns about Seattle's secondary going into Week One after they lost Coby Bryant and Rik Woolen during the off-season, and with injuries to Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada, but with Pats new WR A.J. Brown leaving the game early with an injured ankle it kinda evened out the playing field. Drake Maye was picked off three times in the fourth quarter throwing into tight coverage. And while it could be said he lost that game for New England, it could also be said that Drew Lock won it for Seattle with a passer rating of 113.3, filling in for injured starter Sam Darnold.
As for the game down under, I don't care what the coaches say. The traveling strategy for both teams DID make a difference! The Niners looked fresh and efficient while the Rams looked like they were playing in quicksand and were dominated in every phase of the game. Myles Garrett was a complete no-show in that game, and it sounds like his knee could be an ongoing issue going forward.
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A couple of observations from these first two games:
I had concerns about Seattle's secondary going into Week One after they lost Coby Bryant and Rik Woolen during the off-season, and with injuries to Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada, but with Pats new WR A.J. Brown leaving the game early with an injured ankle it kinda evened out the playing field. Drake Maye was picked off three times in the fourth quarter throwing into tight coverage. And while it could be said he lost that game for New England, it could also be said that Drew Lock won it for Seattle with a passer rating of 113.3, filling in for injured starter Sam Darnold.
As for the game down under, I don't care what the coaches say. The traveling strategy for both teams DID make a difference! The Niners looked fresh and efficient while the Rams looked like they were playing in quicksand and were dominated in every phase of the game. Myles Garrett was a complete no-show in that game, and it sounds like his knee could be an ongoing issue going forward.
STEELERS -6 (up from -3) Falcons - Atlanta's QB situation was a mess to begin with, but now with Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa BOTH out for this game, Cooper Rush will start. They'd be better off if team president and former QB Matt Ryan would suit up. Defensively, free agent losses, injuries and a suspension have wrecked the front seven. Could be a long year for first year HC Kevin Stefanski. As for Pittsburgh, Mike McCarthy takes over for long time HC Mike Tomlin, and is reunited with QB Aaron Rodgers for one last hurrah.
BENGALS -3' Buccaneers - The Bucs lost WR Mike Evans and CB Jamel Dean to free agency and LB Lavonte David to retirement. All are significant losses leaving a leadership void. Cincy is hoping to get a healthy year out of QB Joe Burrow. So far so good, but since Burrow joined the team in 2020 they've stumbled out of the blocks going 3-9 SU and 1-7 ATS as a pick or favorite in the first two games of the season.
Bills -1' TEXANS - Sean McDermott led Buffalo to seven straight double digit win seasons and five consecutive AFC East crowns, but his failure to reach the Super Bowl got him fired. OC Joe Brady takes over, which promises continuity for the Josh Allen led offense. But Jim Leonhard is a first time DC who's switching the defense to a base 3-4. It may take some time for players to adjust to the new scheme. Meanwhile, Houston has the best defense in football with pro bowlers at all three levels. On offense they brought in ex Lion RB David Montgomery to spark the run game and are counting on a bounce back year from QB C.J. Stroud. The big question is have they done enough to improve their offensive line? I think the wrong team may be favored here.
Ravens -3' COLTS - John Harbaugh was the winningest coach in Baltimore's franchise history, but injuries and failed expectations last season cost him his job. New HC Jesse Minter and a new coaching staff have huge shoes to fill. If the preseason is any indication the Ravens' defense could rebound in a big way from an off year. They allowed just 13 total points in three games, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what to make of the Colts. It seems like they lost more than they gained in free agency, and we won't know if QB Daniel Jones is fully recovered from a torn Achilles until he steps on the field.
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Ok, here we go.
Sunday, Sept. 13 - early games part one
STEELERS -6 (up from -3) Falcons - Atlanta's QB situation was a mess to begin with, but now with Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa BOTH out for this game, Cooper Rush will start. They'd be better off if team president and former QB Matt Ryan would suit up. Defensively, free agent losses, injuries and a suspension have wrecked the front seven. Could be a long year for first year HC Kevin Stefanski. As for Pittsburgh, Mike McCarthy takes over for long time HC Mike Tomlin, and is reunited with QB Aaron Rodgers for one last hurrah.
BENGALS -3' Buccaneers - The Bucs lost WR Mike Evans and CB Jamel Dean to free agency and LB Lavonte David to retirement. All are significant losses leaving a leadership void. Cincy is hoping to get a healthy year out of QB Joe Burrow. So far so good, but since Burrow joined the team in 2020 they've stumbled out of the blocks going 3-9 SU and 1-7 ATS as a pick or favorite in the first two games of the season.
Bills -1' TEXANS - Sean McDermott led Buffalo to seven straight double digit win seasons and five consecutive AFC East crowns, but his failure to reach the Super Bowl got him fired. OC Joe Brady takes over, which promises continuity for the Josh Allen led offense. But Jim Leonhard is a first time DC who's switching the defense to a base 3-4. It may take some time for players to adjust to the new scheme. Meanwhile, Houston has the best defense in football with pro bowlers at all three levels. On offense they brought in ex Lion RB David Montgomery to spark the run game and are counting on a bounce back year from QB C.J. Stroud. The big question is have they done enough to improve their offensive line? I think the wrong team may be favored here.
Ravens -3' COLTS - John Harbaugh was the winningest coach in Baltimore's franchise history, but injuries and failed expectations last season cost him his job. New HC Jesse Minter and a new coaching staff have huge shoes to fill. If the preseason is any indication the Ravens' defense could rebound in a big way from an off year. They allowed just 13 total points in three games, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what to make of the Colts. It seems like they lost more than they gained in free agency, and we won't know if QB Daniel Jones is fully recovered from a torn Achilles until he steps on the field.
Bears -3 (up from -2') PANTHERS - Chicago led the league in turnover differential which screams regression for 2026. They were the NFL's miracle team, rallying in the fourth quarter for seven wins behind QB Caleb Williams' heroics. Defensively though they're nothing special. They didn't address a mediocre pass rush and a poor run defense and were hit hard in free agency, especially in the secondary. As for Carolina, they'll go as far as QB Bryce Young can take them. He showed flashes last year but the jury is still out on him. The defense could be stout with the additions of LBs Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips. Leaning towards the home dog in this one with the Panthers covering 11 of their last 13 in that role.
LIONS -7 Saints - If QB Tyler Shough can avoid a sophomore slump, New Orleans has a good shot to win the NFC South this year. HC Kellen Moore is one of the brightest football minds in the league. Obviously I've followed his career ever since he played here for Boise St. The Saints caught fire late last season winning four of their last five games. However, they didn't play any team nearly as good as Detroit and could have their hands full here. The Lions are gonna score. That's a given. But injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, arguably the best safety tandem in the NFL, are a concern. They're also nicked up on the offensive line. I still think Detroit wins by over a TD but I'm not betting on it.
JAGUARS -8' ( up from -7) Browns - While the Falcons' QB situation is a mess, the Browns' is a complete shit show. I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylen Green taking snaps before the season is over. I'm not a fan of betting on big favorites in the NFL though, especially in Week One. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep this competitive. The Jags didn't really do anything to improve during the off-season. They lost three starters in free agency, including stud LB Devin Lloyd, and had an underwhelming draft. Also, they won as many games last year as they did the previous two years combined, which makes them another regression candidate. Still, I can't back a dog that can't score, and only the Raiders scored fewer points than the Browns last season.
TITANS -1' (down from -3) Jets - Both of these teams could have as many as ten or 11 new starters. Jets HC Aaron Glenn made a smart move hiring Frank Reich as his OC. Glenn himself will call the defensive plays. Tennessee is starting completely over, and no team has made more front office and coaching changes than the Titans. Ex Jet HC Robert Saleh is the new man in charge. I'm not sure he has a QB. Cam Ward is a work in progress and had an underwhelming preseason. Slight lean to the Flyboys here.
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Early games part 2
Bears -3 (up from -2') PANTHERS - Chicago led the league in turnover differential which screams regression for 2026. They were the NFL's miracle team, rallying in the fourth quarter for seven wins behind QB Caleb Williams' heroics. Defensively though they're nothing special. They didn't address a mediocre pass rush and a poor run defense and were hit hard in free agency, especially in the secondary. As for Carolina, they'll go as far as QB Bryce Young can take them. He showed flashes last year but the jury is still out on him. The defense could be stout with the additions of LBs Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips. Leaning towards the home dog in this one with the Panthers covering 11 of their last 13 in that role.
LIONS -7 Saints - If QB Tyler Shough can avoid a sophomore slump, New Orleans has a good shot to win the NFC South this year. HC Kellen Moore is one of the brightest football minds in the league. Obviously I've followed his career ever since he played here for Boise St. The Saints caught fire late last season winning four of their last five games. However, they didn't play any team nearly as good as Detroit and could have their hands full here. The Lions are gonna score. That's a given. But injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, arguably the best safety tandem in the NFL, are a concern. They're also nicked up on the offensive line. I still think Detroit wins by over a TD but I'm not betting on it.
JAGUARS -8' ( up from -7) Browns - While the Falcons' QB situation is a mess, the Browns' is a complete shit show. I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylen Green taking snaps before the season is over. I'm not a fan of betting on big favorites in the NFL though, especially in Week One. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep this competitive. The Jags didn't really do anything to improve during the off-season. They lost three starters in free agency, including stud LB Devin Lloyd, and had an underwhelming draft. Also, they won as many games last year as they did the previous two years combined, which makes them another regression candidate. Still, I can't back a dog that can't score, and only the Raiders scored fewer points than the Browns last season.
TITANS -1' (down from -3) Jets - Both of these teams could have as many as ten or 11 new starters. Jets HC Aaron Glenn made a smart move hiring Frank Reich as his OC. Glenn himself will call the defensive plays. Tennessee is starting completely over, and no team has made more front office and coaching changes than the Titans. Ex Jet HC Robert Saleh is the new man in charge. I'm not sure he has a QB. Cam Ward is a work in progress and had an underwhelming preseason. Slight lean to the Flyboys here.
Nice write ups. Im not gonna bet the steelers game, but I dont think Tua is worth 3 pts. Hes not good. Rush is terrible, but still a 3 pt move is too much in my opinion.
Bears defense is gonna be bad. That game could be a shootout. Id bet that for highest scoring game of the week. Im adding a couple props for carolina receivers.
Im a Bills fan and I agree they should not be favored here. Houston has owned Allen defensively in the last couple matchups and I dont think the Bills defense is very good.
I bet the Ravens and I think they steamroll in Indy. May put an extra sprinkle on -7.5 and 10.5 too.
Lions are another suspect defense and I like the Kellen Moore offense. Bet Saints o20.5 TT.
I think Titans are gonna be vastly improved. I like Saleh as a head coach actually, I think he got undeserved hate in NY and its a revenge game for him. I think Tennessee gets the win there.
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Nice write ups. Im not gonna bet the steelers game, but I dont think Tua is worth 3 pts. Hes not good. Rush is terrible, but still a 3 pt move is too much in my opinion.
Bears defense is gonna be bad. That game could be a shootout. Id bet that for highest scoring game of the week. Im adding a couple props for carolina receivers.
Im a Bills fan and I agree they should not be favored here. Houston has owned Allen defensively in the last couple matchups and I dont think the Bills defense is very good.
I bet the Ravens and I think they steamroll in Indy. May put an extra sprinkle on -7.5 and 10.5 too.
Lions are another suspect defense and I like the Kellen Moore offense. Bet Saints o20.5 TT.
I think Titans are gonna be vastly improved. I like Saleh as a head coach actually, I think he got undeserved hate in NY and its a revenge game for him. I think Tennessee gets the win there.
season mah man @Boisestateand8
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