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NFL week 1

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Posted: #1
Teams that won between more than zero and less than 9 games than their week 1 opponent from the previous season have been 135-195 ATS in week one games the past 20+ years.

The only game not qualifying this year is the Raiders/Saints game as they both finished last year with 7-9 records.

Breaking this down by day, the team with a better record the previous year:

1)  Thursday   7-3-2
2)  Sunday day  112-156-8
3)  Sunday night  7-14
4)  Monday night 8-21

Under this scenario we would eliminate the Thursday Broncos/Panthers game.

Remaining teams to consider:

a)   Patriots
b)   Lions
c)   Chargers
d)   Cowboys
e)   Browns 
f)    Bucs
g)   Jags
h)   Jets
i)    Ravens
j  )  Dolphins
k)   Bears 
l)    Titans
m)  49ers
n)  Redskins

Home division favorites of four points or less are 30-15 week 1.   We'll eliminate the Bucs from consideration as this favors the Falcons.

Dallas under Garrett have been pathetic as home favorites....we'll eliminate the Cowboys. 

I have a long-term angle that favors the Seahawks that I won't divulge, so I'll eliminate the Dolphins.

Those teams that finished with a worse regular season record the previous season  than their week 1 opponents who are home underdogs were only 60-53 ATS, but 43-68 UNDER. 

Teams that finished with a worse season record the previous year (by less than 9 games) than their present week 1 opponent that are NOT home dogs have been 135-82 ATS, 62.2%.  

So, I'll eliminate home dogs as possible plays, except for taking the UNDER on some of them. 

So far these are my plays:

1)  Lions +5
2)  Browns +6-
3)  Chargers +6-
4)  Jets +2
5)  Bengals UNDER 41-
6)  Vikings UNDER 42
7)  Packers UNDER 47

The remaining games I'll wait for a public consensus to see who the public is on....if they are on any of the teams listed >50% I will not play them.  So far on another site, early indications are that the public likes the Bears, which would get me off playing them.  

I use covers public consensus as my official filter.

As I've discussed on the college football forum, in my research taking underdogs in football that the public favors has been a long-term losing proposition, so I filter them out.

What I've described in the paragraphs above is a technical way of handicapping that I favor.  You may resonate with this, or believe it is total hogwash.   If you disagree with my handicapping don't take it as a personal attack on your own handicapping technique.   I am not selling my ideas as gospel, it is the way I handicap, so to put it another way,  I am not trying to convince you that my way is the "best" way.  There are different ways to handicap and handicappers can be successful using differing methods.  

The guy who won two consecutive supercontests David Frohardt-Lane recently used technical analysis to win.  

The guys last year that combined to win didn't.

Burger King sells burgers and they make money doing so.....Taco Bells shuns the bun and the burger....they make money.   Dairy Queen does too.   Which entity is best?

They all work.

Good fortune to everyone this year.








 
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Posted: #2
Nice stuff
 
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Posted: #3
Good stuff, Indigo. I like the technical approach, as long as people also care about the other aspects of the game and don't bet blindly.
 
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Posted: #4
Well, I will be betting blindly on these games.

We've discussed before that the dissemination of information in  fundamental analysis is in the perception of the person handicapping, as is technical information.

You are successful as a fundamental handicapper, which is fine....but if it came down to fundamentals and knowledge of the game, why aren't ex-coaches, ex-quarterbacks and ex-centers filthy rich bettors?

One can be successful in differing approaches and whether we use technical analysis, fundamental analysis or a combination, it  is up to the individual and there is no one recipe for success.  

The guy who won the supercontest twice Frohardt-Lane never played the game and didn't look at game film.  He crunched numbers...he was "betting blind" as you put it.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Well, I will be betting blindly on these games.

We've discussed before that the dissemination of information in  fundamental analysis is in the perception of the person handicapping, as is technical information.

You are successful as a fundamental handicapper, which is fine....but if it came down to fundamentals and knowledge of the game, why aren't ex-coaches, ex-quarterbacks and ex-centers filthy rich bettors?

One can be successful in differing approaches and whether we use technical analysis, fundamental analysis or a combination, it  is up to the individual and there is no one recipe for success.  

The guy who won the supercontest twice Frohardt-Lane never played the game and didn't look at game film.  He crunched numbers...he was "betting blind" as you put it.


Cannot argue with that. But why wouldn't you be open to different approaches? I don't necessarily mean fundamentals, but also all other dynamics of the game. And why do you eliminate games just because they don't fit a certain system? Maybe you find another system that fits. You base your whole card on one simple system. You eliminate all home dogs, but I can give you my regression system that is 16-3 ATS since 2009 that favors the Titans as a +3 home dog. Just curious of why you would let opportunities on the table.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Teams that won between more than zero and less than 9 games than their week 1 opponent from the previous season have been 135-195 ATS in week one games the past 20+ years.

The only game not qualifying this year is the Raiders/Saints game as they both finished last year with 7-9 records.

Breaking this down by day, the team with a better record the previous year:

1)  Thursday   7-3-2
2)  Sunday day  112-156-8
3)  Sunday night  7-14
4)  Monday night 8-21

Under this scenario we would eliminate the Thursday Broncos/Panthers game.

Remaining teams to consider:

a)   Patriots
b)   Lions
c)   Chargers
d)   Cowboys
e)   Browns 
f)    Bucs
g)   Jags
h)   Jets
i)    Ravens
j  )  Dolphins
k)   Bears 
l)    Titans
m)  49ers
n)  Redskins

Home division favorites of four points or less are 30-15 week 1.   We'll eliminate the Bucs from consideration as this favors the Falcons.

Dallas under Garrett have been pathetic as home favorites....we'll eliminate the Cowboys. 

I have a long-term angle that favors the Seahawks that I won't divulge, so I'll eliminate the Dolphins.

Those teams that finished with a worse regular season record the previous season  than their week 1 opponents who are home underdogs were only 60-53 ATS, but 43-68 UNDER. 

Teams that finished with a worse season record the previous year (by less than 9 games) than their present week 1 opponent that are NOT home dogs have been 135-82 ATS, 62.2%.  

So, I'll eliminate home dogs as possible plays, except for taking the UNDER on some of them. 

So far these are my plays:

1)  Lions +5
2)  Browns +6-
3)  Chargers +6-
4)  Jets +2
5)  Bengals UNDER 41-
6)  Vikings UNDER 42
7)  Packers UNDER 47

The remaining games I'll wait for a public consensus to see who the public is on....if they are on any of the teams listed >50% I will not play them.  So far on another site, early indications are that the public likes the Bears, which would get me off playing them.  

I use covers public consensus as my official filter.

As I've discussed on the college football forum, in my research taking underdogs in football that the public favors has been a long-term losing proposition, so I filter them out.

What I've described in the paragraphs above is a technical way of handicapping that I favor.  You may resonate with this, or believe it is total hogwash.   If you disagree with my handicapping don't take it as a personal attack on your own handicapping technique.   I am not selling my ideas as gospel, it is the way I handicap, so to put it another way,  I am not trying to convince you that my way is the "best" way.  There are different ways to handicap and handicappers can be successful using differing methods.  

The guy who won two consecutive supercontests David Frohardt-Lane recently used technical analysis to win.  

The guys last year that combined to win didn't.

Burger King sells burgers and they make money doing so.....Taco Bells shuns the bun and the burger....they make money.   Dairy Queen does too.   Which entity is best?

They all work.

Good fortune to everyone this year.
This should work.  It reminds me somewhat of purple's Last Six Switcheroo which worked quite well in the playoffs - the team with the worse record in the last six games tended to cover the spread.

Good luck.  I will probably tail you in some of those games.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Well, I will be betting blindly on these games.

We've discussed before that the dissemination of information in  fundamental analysis is in the perception of the person handicapping, as is technical information.

You are successful as a fundamental handicapper, which is fine....but if it came down to fundamentals and knowledge of the game, why aren't ex-coaches, ex-quarterbacks and ex-centers filthy rich bettors?

One can be successful in differing approaches and whether we use technical analysis, fundamental analysis or a combination, it  is up to the individual and there is no one recipe for success.  

The guy who won the supercontest twice Frohardt-Lane never played the game and didn't look at game film.  He crunched numbers...he was "betting blind" as you put it.
Yes, very different approaches skillfully applied can be successful.

Or as I like to put it, there is more than one way to skin a cat or molest a caterpillar.
 
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Posted: #8
I am open to other approaches....if someone showed me another numerical angle that I regard as valid I am always interested.

And I check out your thread often to see what you have to say about certain match ups, in my case I tend to value that less than my methods, but in no way do I think that my way  SHOULD be THE way, I respect what you do and more importantly I respect your success rate.

However, you give off this impression.  YOU being in quotes.

"I am a serious handicapper.  I look at game film, and I can see what match ups are advantageous for a certain team....I am a master at it because I put many hours doing it.  Because I look at game film more than anyone else (and you don't) I am a superior handicapper and  it is a pity that you don't have the knowledge that I do and unfortunately you won't get the results that I do."

I think that is blatantly false premise.

One year I won quite in excess of six figures betting football and won a picking contest hitting in excess of 67%....I was overseas at the time in an era before every game was on the internet,  and weeks went by without me seeing a particular team play.

I have  friends that played college football, they are terrible handicappers.  I played college basketball, and by far my worst handicapping sport is NBA basketball and if I want to bet that game, I tune into others that are successful, who maybe never played it.    It doesn't always correlate that fundamental knowledge is the secret sauce.
 
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Posted: #9
I don't know man, seems a little like data mining to me but good luck 
 
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Posted: #10
Anyway, good fortune to everyone on the forum.

I have a few goals that I'd like to reach this year in betting the NFL and NCAA.....if I reach them I will be satisfied.

If someone else hits  70% and I hit 60%  or someone makes three times more money than me, it makes not one iota of difference to me.

This is not a competition among bettors to see who the dominant dog is........who the smartest or the richest is, it is about making money. For me, when it becomes a display of ego, that I have to be greater than someone else, it gets in the way of being successful, and why should another bettor care how someone makes their picks?  You either resonate with how someone picks or you don't.

Whether a bettor throws darts at a dartboard, uses a crystal ball or they ask their dog to make their betting decisions and it works for them, then more power to them.   One reads every year about how a monkey has an 80% success rate. 

I'll update more on the week first week of the NFL season.
 
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Posted: #11
Completely agree, Indigo. We are all here to make money and show a ROI at the end of the season, that satisfies us.

By the way, this isn't me in bold quotes. Or I got this wrong.
 
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Posted: #12
I have also learned the hard way that fundamental handicapping is completely useless at times, especially if you don't care about the lines you are getting. Did so much research this offseason and I am going back to my roots.

And by the way, I am leaning all four sides as well for week one!


 
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Posted: #13
Good luck this season Suuma, I'll be checking your threads every week.
 
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Posted: #14
Two (or three) future plays I am contemplating are:

1)  Vikings OVER 9.5

Not many are thinking that the Vikings good season last year will be sustainable, and many think Bridgewater is a dink and dunk quarterback.  He did a lot with nothing last year........he was running for his life on about half of his dropbacks as the offensive line was a sieve in pass protection.  He can be a poor man's Russell Wilson if given the opportunity.  

The line was upgraded and pass protection should at least be average this year......it will be more of a true test of his quarterbacking ability.  Norv Turner, though heavy on Pederson has coached super bowl winning offenses.  Mike Zimmer is a winner, a top 5 coach in the NFL and his defense will be elite this year.  The schedule sets up nicely for the whole division with their out of conference schedule....it would not surprise me one bit if the NFC North division had the highest overall winning percentage in the NFL this year.



Jets OVER 8 at plus money, or Jets to win AFC championship at >= 20/1.  

The bookmaker is not in the habit of giving away money, but for the life of me, I don't understand why these lines are where they are.  

The Jets defense will be elite this year.  They've added Forte to their running back stable.  They've got an average offense and a savvy, respected, young head coach.  So, it is blatantly obvious reason that the linemaker  along with the general public view Fitzpatrick or possible other Jet qbs as  huge liabilities. 

There's been worse qbs that have won super bowls.....there's much more love for the Giants that had a terrible defense last year than the Jets.  Defenses still win championships and they'll have the best defense in the division and probably one of  the top 2 or 3 in the conference along with Denver and possibly Houston.

The thing about buying the Jets to win the AFC, is that if they get to the play-offs, it sets up all kinds of hedging possibilities....and it wasn't too long ago that the Jets got to the AFC championship game with Mark Sanchez quarterbacking them.  Those Jets' defenses were not as good as this year's edition.

New England is set to decline this year, Buffalo is already injured and Miami has a new head coach....it sets up nicely for the Jets this year.
 
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Posted: #15
The Jets are home dogs vs. Cincy, wouldn't this eliminate them, too? I happen to like them week 1, but if I'm understanding your approach correctly, you would take them out, too.
 
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Posted: #16
Erjaq,

Yes, if I followed everything to the letter the Jets would be eliminated.  
I, once in a great while deviate from what the numbers tell me and I'd love to say that because I have savant powers in handicapping that those games hit a huge percentage....the truth is, they don't.

I like the Jets this year and I am down on the Bengals and I don't think the market has caught up to the brilliant insight I have into the situation...haha.
 
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Posted: #17
gl
 
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Posted: #18
 
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Posted: #19
bol
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Erjaq,

Yes, if I followed everything to the letter the Jets would be eliminated.  
I, once in a great while deviate from what the numbers tell me and I'd love to say that because I have savant powers in handicapping that those games hit a huge percentage....the truth is, they don't.

I like the Jets this year and I am down on the Bengals and I don't think the market has caught up to the brilliant insight I have into the situation...haha.
Too early to do a true handicap of the Cinn/Jet game, But I like Cinn. on the road. 8-0 last year.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Two (or three) future plays I am contemplating are:

Jets OVER 8 at plus money, or Jets to win AFC championship at >= 20/1.  

The bookmaker is not in the habit of giving away money, but for the life of me, I don't understand why these lines are where they are.  

The Jets defense will be elite this year.  They've added Forte to their running back stable.  They've got an average offense and a savvy, respected, young head coach.  So, it is blatantly obvious reason that the linemaker  along with the general public view Fitzpatrick or possible other Jet qbs as  huge liabilities. 

There's been worse qbs that have won super bowls.....there's much more love for the Giants that had a terrible defense last year than the Jets.  Defenses still win championships and they'll have the best defense in the division and probably one of  the top 2 or 3 in the conference along with Denver and possibly Houston.

The thing about buying the Jets to win the AFC, is that if they get to the play-offs, it sets up all kinds of hedging possibilities....and it wasn't too long ago that the Jets got to the AFC championship game with Mark Sanchez quarterbacking them.  Those Jets' defenses were not as good as this year's edition.

New England is set to decline this year, Buffalo is already injured and Miami has a new head coach....it sets up nicely for the Jets this year.

Happy to see this.  William Hill still has Jets at 30-1 for AFC.  I put $500 on this yesterday throughout Reno.  Best of luck to us!
 
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Posted: #22
Adding:

8)   Raiders +102
9)   Bears +6
10) Patriots +6

The Raiders play is based on another angle that I use. 

All other sides  are based on the historical angle listed in the beginning of this thread have hit 60%, going back to 1990. Remember that Thursday plays are filtered out (Denver), because for whatever reason, this angle has not done well on Thursdays, but has been good in all other scenarios.

Going back 27 years, this week one angle has been profitable 20 years, has lost 4 years and broken even 3 years.  It went 6-7 last year and went 6-8 in 2012.

Fade, follow or ignore..........your choice....good fortune.
 
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Posted: #23
Great stuff and best of luck this season!

Only thing I disagree with is the jets. I think Fitzpatrick and Palmer are two QBS that will regress this season after having career years. The Jets are thin in many areas and have a brutal schedule. This isnt a team accustomed to beating great teams answer that's all their getting this year. 

The Patriots will win that division by Dec 1st. They are loaded and the best coached team in the league. They are motivated and probably the have the most mental toughness. And they will have the best defense in that division. Pass rushers that specialize againstthe run. Top 5 lb and secondary corp. 
 
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Posted: #24
 
 
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Posted: #25
GL Indigo this season, hopefully your form from the other leagues you cap carry over to the NFL.. 
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