YTD (NFL): 4-9 ATS (BIG PLAY: 1-4)
Not sure anyone was more snakebitten than myself in week 1. Had a huge under with NO/Det that went from 7 FH points to 60 in the game and also featured an OT where they scored freely. Needless to say the Pass interferences 25-40 yds down the field helped the teams tremendously. No point in crying over spilt milk I started soccer slowly and have turned that ship around so I intend to that here starting this week.
CLEVELAND (+8.5): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS over their last 10 games dating back to last season. That includes seven games as a favorite and thats where they sit today. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and most of the games the Browns have been playing on the road have been going over. It's the NFL so it's easy to fade teams after they get pummeled but it's the NFL and you know how that often goes.
PHILADELPHIA (-7): Tennessee has lost 13 of 14 home games and I really don't like this spot for them. Moreover, since Nick Sirianni took over in 2021, Philadelphia is 30-13 on the road, a near 70 percent win rate which is the best in the NFL over that span. That doesn't mean they will cover this spread but given how awful the Titans have looked not just last week, but for the past few games going back to last year, I think this is a really strong spot for the Eagles.
NEW ORLEANS (+8.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: Maybe the first time I have gone against my team, the Ravens, in a big play but this just doesnt' line up great for Lamar Jackson and co. Consider that Lamar Jackson is just 7-13-1 ATS for his career when favored by seven or more points. He went 0-3 ATS in such spots last November when in this situation. Additionally, the Saints have covered seven straight games and have been, on average, 6.9 points better than the spread during this run. The Ravens are minus their two starting WR's, and their one top guy in Zay Flowers. They will turn to Derrick Henry early and often and while that doesn't guarantee the Saints score, I think they have enough to keep this game interesting.
OVER 44.5 GREEN BAY/NYJ...BIG PLAY!!!: The over has been hitting like wild fire in the games where the Jets have been playing at home. The same can be said in the games that the Packers are on the road. In fact, the over cashed in New York’s last four games as a home underdog in 2025 and has cashed in 6 straight road games for the Packers as the favorite.
I would skate lightly until I hit my groove again but it's only been one week. The afternoon games provide a bit less enthusiasm so I won't have 3 bigger unit plays but I will be back barring an AM meltdown. As always, tail or fade, good luck to al...
GL Amigo
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