NFL TODAY PLAYS (11/23)

YTD (NFL):  45-47-2 (BIG PLAY!!!:  14-18-2)

MUCH needed win and some good fortune hitting the BIG PLAY UNDER on TNF with But/Hou.  For the record, I type these myself and I'm human so if there is a mistake, like last time, I will come back and try to adjust it.  I know how to read which team is home and away.  In fact, those are direct areas I look at when analyzing.  I also list the teams with the away team first just as listed in American sports.  

Today is another make or break day and I have found a WEALTH of opportunities in the first half of some of these games.  Usually doesn't happen like this but situationally they are extremely sound and provide a clear advantage for one side vs. the other.  Here are these angles and plays...

CHICAGO FH (-2.5):  The Bears are amongst the tops in FH ATS at HOME where they sit 3-1 ATS while Pittsburgh is only 1-3 ATS on the road.  I understand that Aaron Rodgers OWNS the he's now not playing. And the scoring disparity is also heavily with the Bears who average 15 FH points at home vs. Pittsburgh's 11 on the road.  The Bears will be up for this game if only to focus on finally taking down Rodgers and the FH should play out the way I see it.

NEW ENGLAND FH (-4):  Another one which see the Pats a sesnsational 5-0 ATS in the FH on the road AND the Bengals only 3-2 at home.  Both teams average about the same amount of points but I think the loss of Jamaar Chase will open things up for the NE defense to bring some corner blitzes and force Flacco into early mistakes.  

KANSAS CITY FH (EVEN)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I'm probably in the minority on the board that thinks Indy will create a much closer game in the end for KC.  But Indy hasn't been awesome in the FH of games outside of maybe that Chargers game where they went berserk.  In fact, Indy is only 2-2 ATS on the road FH while the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS at home in the FH.  I believe the Chiefs will be focused and come out waiting to quiet the doubters and that's why I made this a big play.  Oh, and the fact that the Chiefs average about the same as the Colts in the FH making this a solid spot.

OVER 20.5 FH (SEA/TEN)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Just way too low and the Titans have a shot to keep this game close imo.  Probably pretty unpopular given the Seattle defense, but the Titans have been able to score close to 10 points in their FH home games and Seattle is the highest scoring team with 14 FH ROAD points scored on average.  21 gets us over the hump and I think it's low enough where that can happen given Darnold's potential errors on the road.

I have a few more games that I will be posting and then recap.  I'll have to start a second posting since the thread is already past the limits that Covers allows.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Nice write ups LA! BOL today!

How’s it feel to mush LineLords play in the first half? Still flushing losses and adding wins to that record I see. 

First of all....that KC line shot up after having placed it to 2.5.  That's a pretty sizable jump but I still like them at 2.5 maybe slightly less so than at even.  Here are the other plays I am going to back:

OVER 44.5 (NYJ/BAL)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I think some of these totals are slightly lower for the Ravens b/c Lamar was out for some games so their scoring average on hand is a bit lower.  But there are MASSIVE trends pointing to this being an over and not because Tyrod Taylor is starting against his old team.  But I think the Jets have enough pieces to get 14-17 points, even if they have to use garbage time, and that would mean the Ravens would need to go over 30, which I think there is little chance they don't.  The TT for the Ravens is 29.5 so that's a big tight for me to make a play but the Total seems about right.

UNDER 50 (IND/KC):  I think the game plays more like a playoff game than a regular late season game.  The indy defense is improved, the Chiefs will want to show people they are still relevant, and KC's defense at home has been stellar.  Maybe there is some early scoring here but both teams also tend to settle down in the 2nd halves of games.  I have some nerves here which prohibited this from being a big play but I think in the end this total is a bit high for these defenses and the strong trends that also point to this being an UNDER.

I'm not sure I want to press too much so many games seem pretty tight to me.  I love the Pats to win but the 7.5 makes the spread a bit tough.  And I think that the Min/GB game is a coin toss with the way those teams are playing.  I do like Tennessee with all the points they are getting at home but Seattle is the best team ATS and really good on the road as well.  Alas, I think this is all I will be going with:

CHICAGO FH (-2.5)

NE FH (-4)

KC FH (EVEN)...play up to 3...BIG PLAY!!!

OVER 20.5 (SEA/TEN)...BIG PLAY!!!

OVER 44.5 (NYJ/BAL)...BIG PLAY!!!

UNDER 50 (IND/KC)

Hope everyone is having a great week and wishing everyone a profitable day.  As always, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...

What on earth are you talking about?  Who is mushing what?  Post plays then comment.  Good luck to you on the day 

The KC half line was always -2.5 

just say you paid close to -200 FH…

0-5 in the first half of the 10am games. Yikes. Good luck the rest of the way bud. 

GL  on your plays @LAGameofInches