YTD (NFL): 8-14 ATS (BIG PLAY: 2-6)
Was out of town last week so have to start turning things around today which I will. The Big Plays are crippling me and it seems the FH plays are cashing FG so they are not off pace just the wrong play. It's a long season but tread lightly though I'm streaky so at some point this thread might become more valuable.
BALTIMORE FQ (-2.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: This is a first quarter play. Gonna go back to my Ravens for a couple of units in a sneaky play that they seem to cash at an extraordinary clip especially when playing at home. The Ravens seem to, and I mean almost every year, lose to some team they should have beaten within the first few games of the season. That happened a few games back when they allowed the Saints to come back and "surprise" them. New coach, same trend so I'm going to also back the notion that they have obliterated teams that are "inferior" the next time they had the chance. With some momentum from the win in Rio, I believe they come out strong and the defense shuts down a lowly Titans defense. We only need a FG above the Titans production early to win this play and I really like our chances.
NY JETS (+4): I'd have made this a big play, sounds crazy I know, but Ben Johnson does have the ability to crush teams at home. But he also seems to "come back to earth" after a big win which the Bears completed last Monday night against the Eagles. I think the Jets are VERY improved and is commonplace in the NFL, one week can be very different than the next. I'll wager that Case Keenum is not the second coming of Knute Rockne and that the Jets, who very well could be even better had the lowly Packers not beaten them in OT, will keep this game close, maybe even win it.
OVER 51.5 (JACKSONVILLE/CINCINNATI)...BIG PLAY!!!: The over in this head to head has come in 8 out of the past 10 times they have played. Classic game of not overthinking. In today's NFL, this is not that big of a total to get over and with both offenses more or less in tact, I don't see how points dont' show up in this game. They do tend to score more in the second half but with a short line in a matchup that the Bengals have really owned, I also love this play.
Some other trends I was looking at that I found useful: OVER is 9-1 in the past 10 matchups between LAR & PHI; ARI is 5-0 ATS in last five vs. the NYG and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 game plays in NY; and Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Going to keep it short, there are many games, many winning sides, but I personally can't press my luck and post them until I turn the corner. Hopefully in a few short hours that process would have begun. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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