YTD (NFL): 85-77-6 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 18-16-1 ATS)
PLAYOFF (NFL): 0-2 ATS
Has NOT been a good run of late, my worst in the NFL in years, just think I'm sometimes over reaching when things are a bit more simple. But then again, when is the NFL ever simple.
Gonna SMASH today's plays and whatever happens, happens. But with the Ravens playing and Lamar something like 17-5 in primetime games, which is the BEST for a QB since the 1970 merger, I have no idea how you can back another side. Sure, Josh Allen is great but the Buffalo defense is NOT and the Ravens will get up and down the field especially with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson being able to eat chunks of yards against a bad Bills run defense.
Also of note, just as in the CFP playoffs and MLB a couple years ago, the teams that have had added rest, such as the Lions experienced yesterday, the defense might take some time to get up to speed again. You don't have those liberties against a Ravens team when you will be running around chasing Lamar and rest of the gang. You might say Kansas City had no issues, and you would be right, but they are CONDITIONED to be in this spot and reach the Championship Round just about every year.
The Ravens defense has been spectacular of late but there is no reason to think the Bills won's score. It's just the Ravens will score more. The icy and cold conditions won't hamper Baltimore and I think we will see a very open game. At the end of the day, I do think the game will be close as the Ravens are not great vs the TE and the Bills have two guys in Knox and Kincaid that I think can move the sticks. But Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and especially try and avenge the loss from the Championship round last year and the first week of this year by beating KC, in Kansas City. Ravens will score, and in the end get the win on the road.
BALTIMORE (-1)...HUGE PLAY!!!
BALTIMORE TT FH OVER 10.5 (-155)...BIG PLAY!!!: I realize this is quite high of a price to pay but I don't think there is close to any way the Ravens do not get at LEAST 13. With Justin Tucker being back to himself and a game that I think will be stretched I'm going to back this given the Ravens AVERAGE the second most FH points in the NFL and have been putting up close to 18 points in the FH over the past 3 games. On the road? The Ravens average about 15 FH points. So I think this is a hammer as well with the only risk being the vig.
I'm going to start with this play and layer in the first game, between the Rams and Eagles, in a few, just want to finish up analyzing it. Might add a total play for the Ravens game as well just want to post and get this out for whomever wants to read and/or follow. As always, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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