NFL Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Saints

Fuck the intro/first game of the season talk, lets get this fuckin money.

I can see already, the squares are comin out in hoardes for NO.
Let me say this first, trends suggest NO will win. The Super Bowl champ has played, at home, the first Thurs night game of the year, every year since 2004, and on MNF before that.
Lets take a look:

2009: TEN @ PIT,  PIT wins 13-10 (TEN +3.5)
2008: WASH @ NYG  NYG wins 16-7  (WSH +4.5)
2007: NO @ IND    IND wins 41-10
2006: MIA @ PIT   PIT wins 28-17
2005: OAK @ NE    NE wins 30-20
2004: IND @ NE    NE wins 27-24

Going back a few more years, but not THURS night games, past SB Winners in Week one.
2003: (MNF) TB @ PHI  TB wins 17-0
2002: PIT @ NE        NE wins 30-14
2001: CHI @ BAL       BL wins 17-6
2000: DEN @ STL       STL wins 41-36

So far, in the last ten years, the SB winner is 10-0, SU.

If you observe closely, the only two inter-conference games were in 2007 and 2000, when IND whipped NO 41-10 and STL won 41-36. AFC teams have been more dominate lately (hence the IND/NO score) as was NFC teams in late ninties early 2000.

The more familiar the opponent, the more likely the game will be close. The key game though is IND @ NE from 2004. The scenario is eeiry-ily similar to Thursday's game. Revenge game for the Colts, NE SB champs NE won by 3! I expect similar results with MIN @ NO as well.

Going back even further:

1999: MIA @ DEN    MIA wins 38-21 (Elway just retired, DEN had rookie in Greise)
1998: NE  @ DEN    DEN wins 27-21
1997: CHI @ GB     GB wins 38-24
1996: DAL @ CHI    CHI wins 22-6
1995: DAL @ NYG    DAL wins 35-0
1994: RAI @ SF     SF wins 44-14
1993: DAL @ WASH   WASH wins 35-16
1992: SF @ NYG     SF wins 31-14 (Tuna had just left the NYG team)
1991: SF @ NYG     NYG wins 16-14

7-2 SU the nine years before that.

Am I looking too much into the trends? NO

Minnesota will cover the points, they just won't win the game (so NO ML looks good). For starters, both teams are reletively unchanged. Last year, it took 6 fumbles (3 lost) and 2 INTs
just for the Saints to go OT and win off another INT! I think Minnesota will cover the points here, easily if not win outright. Look at the game between these teams from 2008, I think the Saints were basically the same, with  the exception of Gregg Williams on the coaching front. I think Gregg Williams is valable, but unless the Saints get turnovers, they may very well lose the game. I watched a lot of NO games last year, and the key to their season was turnovers. If you look back, many of the games they won were off turnovers (MIA comes to mind first, IND in SB, INT on MIN in NFC Champ). I think if Minnesota can limit the turnovers, (we know Favre will turn it over at least once), run the ball well,
and keep the defense fresh, Minnesota will have no problem with the cover.

Ill wait for the suckers to push the line past 6. Im hoping for 7, but one sharp play will put it back at 5, so I will pull the trigger when I sense the line will not move anymore.

The pick:

MIN +5

ALSO:

Under 47 (not playing this)
NO ML -240

Two-Team Teaser:
MIN +11 or 12 and Under 53

GL Fellas

Suckers are already moving the line to seven (+6 (115) @ Bodog). Blood Bath comin tomorrow for the squares that love chalk.

bol TT hate being opposite.

Quote Originally Posted by moosehunter:

ML for the Vikes for me....

That dangerous, given the trend for SB champs in the first game of the season. Tred lightly on Vikings ML.

Minnesota backers have a rude awakening coming... this is not the same team that fell just short to make it to the Superbowl.  Farve is a year older, and obviously is NOT into game shape yet.  They have WR problems all over, nobody knows who will be catching the balls.  The offensive line is down considerably to the line that started the 2009 campaign.

Superbowl champs at home, and they may be better this year.  Don't overthink this one

Saints -6 +110 on matchbook :)

Well, lets not get ahead of ourselves, Favre does not move the line that easy. But I do agree, Favre defies logic. Look at Drew Brees stats from last year, and look at Favre, any similarities?

WHAT wide reciever problems. Guy, one man is missing, Rice, who is not even THAT good. Come on.