Thoughts on Packers at all?
My model is Pack -6.
Hard to tell what you will get from the Bears this week with a new O Coordinator, and all of the pressure Williams is under. Sure feels like the team has given up a little bit - they have that look.
In watching the film... My personal impressions are that he is missing throws and not reading defenses - even regression from earlier in the season. Every other rookie has progressed and he is regressing - it happens when QBs lose confidence in their O Line to protect and they shorten their 1st read pocket time from 2.5 seconds to about 1.5 seconds - which causes all kinds of issues. Maybe not for a 10 year vet - but for any rookie when you get happy feet and get off your primary read too soon - defenses are going to eat you up.
So can the Bears run on the Pack? Because that would be the only thing I could point to that would tell me that Chicago could hang here.... I have them at 23rd rushing (adjusted) and the Pack 13th (adjusted) against the run. So that doesn't look great on paper. Eberflus is also not a gameplanner - I use a metric of variation in coaching plans (it simply measures how consistent a team is running the same gameplan or how much coaching changes things up week to week - based on things like run / pass / coverage / defense) and the Bears are one of the most consistent in the league - which in my book is a bad sign.
On the other side, you have the Pack with the 3rd best rushing attack in the NFL, and particularly good outside of the tackles - going against the Bears 30th ranked defense (31st outside the tackles). So the Pack should be able to run on the Bears. I expect Love to only have to throw like 20 times a game - but LaFleur is 2nd in the NFL in that coaching variation metric so he sometimes likes to get outside of what is expected or looks easy on paper.
Overall, I like the Pack to win. But in normal years, 5.5 points is a ton of points. But this year? Who knows. Points dont seem to matter. Did anyone see the DKs and FDs earnings advisement this past week? They said something to the effect of "fan favorable outcomes have impacted millions of profitability" and that the street should adjust earnings expectations down accordingly.
So I think if I wasn't tracking so poorly this season I would have a low unit play on the Pack, but it is one that gets eliminated because my threshold is higher because of my current slump.
Maybe not everyone sees it but you admitted more than enough!
GL Van!!… letsss cashemmm!!
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