I didn't do anything with it. Thought about going Baltimore - the points, but the more the week went on, I shied away from really liking Baltimore(Monday I thought they were gonna destroy). Then I thought of taking Balt ML(which was the smart play in the scheme of things), but I hated pissing away all the value, and would have been pissed if Houston pulled off the upset.
Gotta wonder what would have been if Schaub doesn't go down......
What's really biting my ass is OVER 35, the game is 17-13 at half, and there was only 3 points in the last 35 minutes of the game. Goddamn!
MT, good luck in the Pack game, my friend! I took GB -7 small. I think GB covers, but I'm watching game with family and friends who are all hardcore Giant fans, so if it is a close game late, I'm going with the flow and rooting with the fam. Playing a half unit so the money is pretty much meaningless.
Fuck that over really hurt me. The difference between a 8-9 unit week and a 2 unit week!
Oh ok.I woulda done the same and just ridden it as well I mean the Texans dictated that game just couldn't convert in the red zone and made some bad bad turnovers.
I layed off the Packers -7.5 thank goodness. I truly believe without bias (I leaned NO -3.5 yesterday) that if the Giants hang on their run will end next week.
Gross bad beat on the Texans Over. Keep grindin man.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
I didn't do anything with it. Thought about going Baltimore - the points, but the more the week went on, I shied away from really liking Baltimore(Monday I thought they were gonna destroy). Then I thought of taking Balt ML(which was the smart play in the scheme of things), but I hated pissing away all the value, and would have been pissed if Houston pulled off the upset.
Gotta wonder what would have been if Schaub doesn't go down......
What's really biting my ass is OVER 35, the game is 17-13 at half, and there was only 3 points in the last 35 minutes of the game. Goddamn!
MT, good luck in the Pack game, my friend! I took GB -7 small. I think GB covers, but I'm watching game with family and friends who are all hardcore Giant fans, so if it is a close game late, I'm going with the flow and rooting with the fam. Playing a half unit so the money is pretty much meaningless.
Fuck that over really hurt me. The difference between a 8-9 unit week and a 2 unit week!
Oh ok.I woulda done the same and just ridden it as well I mean the Texans dictated that game just couldn't convert in the red zone and made some bad bad turnovers.
I layed off the Packers -7.5 thank goodness. I truly believe without bias (I leaned NO -3.5 yesterday) that if the Giants hang on their run will end next week.
Gross bad beat on the Texans Over. Keep grindin man.
I got off the Giants. Something just doesn't feel right with this team. Head vs Gut for me again. Last week the head said Giants are the play but the gut said Falcons. It was obvious at halftime which part was right. This time it's the same, head says Giants have the ingredients to win outright but gut says Packers in a blowout. I will wait til halftime.
You like anything for 2nd Half I think Giants don't blow this.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I got off the Giants. Something just doesn't feel right with this team. Head vs Gut for me again. Last week the head said Giants are the play but the gut said Falcons. It was obvious at halftime which part was right. This time it's the same, head says Giants have the ingredients to win outright but gut says Packers in a blowout. I will wait til halftime.
You like anything for 2nd Half I think Giants don't blow this.
Even without that hail mary there were 23 points in the 1st half despite turnovers, dropped passes, and a missed FG.
We've got two elite QB's, two elite groups of receivers, two horrible secondaries, and two pass rushes that are struggling. Green Bay will speed it up and make a run their offense is too good to be held down and keep dropping passes and fumbling. Giants should score again as the Pack can't stop a nose bleed. I think both teams get into the 30's.
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NY Giants/Green Bay OVER 27 (2nd half)
Even without that hail mary there were 23 points in the 1st half despite turnovers, dropped passes, and a missed FG.
We've got two elite QB's, two elite groups of receivers, two horrible secondaries, and two pass rushes that are struggling. Green Bay will speed it up and make a run their offense is too good to be held down and keep dropping passes and fumbling. Giants should score again as the Pack can't stop a nose bleed. I think both teams get into the 30's.
You like anything for 2nd Half I think Giants don't blow this.
Lots of points but I'm not sure how either team gets a stop. The Packers will speed it up which should limit the Giants pass rush. Packers get the ball first, this game is a long way from over. Green Bay's defense is an abortion though.
GL buddy.
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Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
You like anything for 2nd Half I think Giants don't blow this.
Lots of points but I'm not sure how either team gets a stop. The Packers will speed it up which should limit the Giants pass rush. Packers get the ball first, this game is a long way from over. Green Bay's defense is an abortion though.
Everyone and their mother had the packers teased. The giants bettors all went on the ats, these big mls never get pounded because the nature of gamblers play only day to day.
nice call
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Quote Originally Posted by Flutiemaniac341:
The books are laughing
Everyone and their mother had the packers teased. The giants bettors all went on the ats, these big mls never get pounded because the nature of gamblers play only day to day.
Glyde man what were you doing taking the Pack and then watching the game with Giants fans? Gotta sink or swim together with the boys my man.
No joke, by mid third quarter I was jumping up and down high fiving my pops, brother, and my buddy everytime the Giants made a play.
Tell you what. Have you ever seen Rodgers rattled like he was in the 2nd half of this game? 4 years of watching him and never seen him like this. He had crazy eyes, a weird body language, and even in his rookie year where he lost some heartbreaking shootouts I never saw him look like that.
NFC champ game is gonna be fucking awesome.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
2-1-2 week.
Glyde man what were you doing taking the Pack and then watching the game with Giants fans? Gotta sink or swim together with the boys my man.
No joke, by mid third quarter I was jumping up and down high fiving my pops, brother, and my buddy everytime the Giants made a play.
Tell you what. Have you ever seen Rodgers rattled like he was in the 2nd half of this game? 4 years of watching him and never seen him like this. He had crazy eyes, a weird body language, and even in his rookie year where he lost some heartbreaking shootouts I never saw him look like that.
No joke, by mid third quarter I was jumping up and down high fiving my pops, brother, and my buddy everytime the Giants made a play.
Tell you what. Have you ever seen Rodgers rattled like he was in the 2nd half of this game? 4 years of watching him and never seen him like this. He had crazy eyes, a weird body language, and even in his rookie year where he lost some heartbreaking shootouts I never saw him look like that.
NFC champ game is gonna be fucking awesome.
Yeah he was way off. Even though the receivers dropped some balls he looked rattled all game almost like the D-line was in his head, he was dancing around and taking off sometimes even when the pressure wasn't there. The only 2 TD drives GB had came when they shouldn't: That horrible no fumble call that was clearly a fumble and then the helmit personal foul phantom call. Giants defense is as good as anyone in the league when they are healthy. Canty looked hurt bad though if he's out it will be a big boost to SF.
Both games should be great. Let's just hope we don't see a Harbaugh Bowl. Jesus, the game would be horrible. First to 10 wins. Even though I just cashed a ticket on Alabama that game was awful, don't want to see that shit in the biggest game of all. In a SF/BAL Super Bowl you could do shots for every 1st down and still not get a buzz.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
No joke, by mid third quarter I was jumping up and down high fiving my pops, brother, and my buddy everytime the Giants made a play.
Tell you what. Have you ever seen Rodgers rattled like he was in the 2nd half of this game? 4 years of watching him and never seen him like this. He had crazy eyes, a weird body language, and even in his rookie year where he lost some heartbreaking shootouts I never saw him look like that.
NFC champ game is gonna be fucking awesome.
Yeah he was way off. Even though the receivers dropped some balls he looked rattled all game almost like the D-line was in his head, he was dancing around and taking off sometimes even when the pressure wasn't there. The only 2 TD drives GB had came when they shouldn't: That horrible no fumble call that was clearly a fumble and then the helmit personal foul phantom call. Giants defense is as good as anyone in the league when they are healthy. Canty looked hurt bad though if he's out it will be a big boost to SF.
Both games should be great. Let's just hope we don't see a Harbaugh Bowl. Jesus, the game would be horrible. First to 10 wins. Even though I just cashed a ticket on Alabama that game was awful, don't want to see that shit in the biggest game of all. In a SF/BAL Super Bowl you could do shots for every 1st down and still not get a buzz.
Yea man, the refs were horribly against the Giants. Not saying it was a "fix," or anything silly like that, but I saw 4-5 calls that I couldn't believe.
The two you named were huge. There was also a phantom hold that killed a Giants drive and two really bad spots with one of them a yard short of what should have been a 1st down on a 3rd down play.
Agree that both games should be great. Agree that a Harbaugh Bowl will suuuuuck. I think Pats vs either NFC team will be a fantastic Super Bowl. One a rematch of the classic 2007 SB(with bad blood from a recent regular season game as well). One a classic offense vs defense game. Would love to see who would win that battle if the Niners attack Brady like they did Brees. Pressure, Willis all over Gronk, and lots of man to man on the outside.
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Yea man, the refs were horribly against the Giants. Not saying it was a "fix," or anything silly like that, but I saw 4-5 calls that I couldn't believe.
The two you named were huge. There was also a phantom hold that killed a Giants drive and two really bad spots with one of them a yard short of what should have been a 1st down on a 3rd down play.
Agree that both games should be great. Agree that a Harbaugh Bowl will suuuuuck. I think Pats vs either NFC team will be a fantastic Super Bowl. One a rematch of the classic 2007 SB(with bad blood from a recent regular season game as well). One a classic offense vs defense game. Would love to see who would win that battle if the Niners attack Brady like they did Brees. Pressure, Willis all over Gronk, and lots of man to man on the outside.
Oh ok.I woulda done the same and just ridden it as well I mean the Texans dictated that game just couldn't convert in the red zone and made some bad bad turnovers.
I layed off the Packers -7.5 thank goodness. I truly believe without bias (I leaned NO -3.5 yesterday) that if the Giants hang on their run will end next week.
Gross bad beat on the Texans Over. Keep grindin man.
Niners played a helluva game, ay? That was a classic. I know a lot of Saints backers are saying it was a fluke win and even with 5 turnovers NO almost won, but I thought that when SF played their game, they played incredible D. Looks like they softened up after going up 17-0, reverted back once NO clawed back, and then softened up again late in the game. Every other drive their defense was mighty.
Any early thoughts on the SF-NYG game?
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Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
Oh ok.I woulda done the same and just ridden it as well I mean the Texans dictated that game just couldn't convert in the red zone and made some bad bad turnovers.
I layed off the Packers -7.5 thank goodness. I truly believe without bias (I leaned NO -3.5 yesterday) that if the Giants hang on their run will end next week.
Gross bad beat on the Texans Over. Keep grindin man.
Niners played a helluva game, ay? That was a classic. I know a lot of Saints backers are saying it was a fluke win and even with 5 turnovers NO almost won, but I thought that when SF played their game, they played incredible D. Looks like they softened up after going up 17-0, reverted back once NO clawed back, and then softened up again late in the game. Every other drive their defense was mighty.
Niners played a helluva game, ay? That was a classic. I know a lot of Saints backers are saying it was a fluke win and even with 5 turnovers NO almost won, but I thought that when SF played their game, they played incredible D. Looks like they softened up after going up 17-0, reverted back once NO clawed back, and then softened up again late in the game. Every other drive their defense was mighty.
Any early thoughts on the SF-NYG game?
Ya that was an unbelievable game. People could say the 5 turnovers were fluky but outside of the kick return one the Niners forced em all, the two picks and the hit to knock out Thomas and cause the fumble set the tone for the game and led to many Saints being nervous on crossing routes and screens dropping balls.
The Niners-Giants game is tough, the Giants really impressed me today and made GB look terrible. I think the Niners can win but I gotta look into it way more, it's not one of those plays where I can just fire away on SF -2.5.
The Niners will do what GB couldn't do and that's pressure the QB. The Niners got 3 sacks and many pressures on what I feel is one of the very best O-Lines in the NFL in the Saints. The Giants have a great O-Line, but Eli won't be comfy. Also the Niners have a solid secondary and had many drives where they shut down the Saints phletora of wide receivers in similar build to the Giants. The Niners did give up a couple disgustnig big plays at the end of the game, but I think in their 2nd playoff game they will much more sharp in avoiding those also having played the Giants once they'll be accustomed to Cruz and Co. The Niners completely shut down the run so NYG will be in long passing downs so Manning won't score at will.
On the other side Smith got pressured last week due to blitzes from the Saints. The Giants don't need corners and LB's to blitz with their front 4, so Smith will be under durress. Vernon Davis should draw a ton of attention as the Giants LB's aren't great in pass coverage. Crabtree will need to put forth a big game as Coughlin will focus on Vernon to avoid what happened to the Saints, also the Niners need Gore to run well like he did last week to create short yardage for Smith and alleviate that pass rush.
I lean Niners -2.5 and Under but I'm gonna wait on it. The Giants have been here before but the Niners are also fearless. Even if the line changes I gotta think about this one more as I'm not concerned too much if the line changes 1 or 2 points.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Niners played a helluva game, ay? That was a classic. I know a lot of Saints backers are saying it was a fluke win and even with 5 turnovers NO almost won, but I thought that when SF played their game, they played incredible D. Looks like they softened up after going up 17-0, reverted back once NO clawed back, and then softened up again late in the game. Every other drive their defense was mighty.
Any early thoughts on the SF-NYG game?
Ya that was an unbelievable game. People could say the 5 turnovers were fluky but outside of the kick return one the Niners forced em all, the two picks and the hit to knock out Thomas and cause the fumble set the tone for the game and led to many Saints being nervous on crossing routes and screens dropping balls.
The Niners-Giants game is tough, the Giants really impressed me today and made GB look terrible. I think the Niners can win but I gotta look into it way more, it's not one of those plays where I can just fire away on SF -2.5.
The Niners will do what GB couldn't do and that's pressure the QB. The Niners got 3 sacks and many pressures on what I feel is one of the very best O-Lines in the NFL in the Saints. The Giants have a great O-Line, but Eli won't be comfy. Also the Niners have a solid secondary and had many drives where they shut down the Saints phletora of wide receivers in similar build to the Giants. The Niners did give up a couple disgustnig big plays at the end of the game, but I think in their 2nd playoff game they will much more sharp in avoiding those also having played the Giants once they'll be accustomed to Cruz and Co. The Niners completely shut down the run so NYG will be in long passing downs so Manning won't score at will.
On the other side Smith got pressured last week due to blitzes from the Saints. The Giants don't need corners and LB's to blitz with their front 4, so Smith will be under durress. Vernon Davis should draw a ton of attention as the Giants LB's aren't great in pass coverage. Crabtree will need to put forth a big game as Coughlin will focus on Vernon to avoid what happened to the Saints, also the Niners need Gore to run well like he did last week to create short yardage for Smith and alleviate that pass rush.
I lean Niners -2.5 and Under but I'm gonna wait on it. The Giants have been here before but the Niners are also fearless. Even if the line changes I gotta think about this one more as I'm not concerned too much if the line changes 1 or 2 points.
Been real busy this week. Have some time for writeups:
Baltimore +7.5
Sticking with this one as I think it is a severe overreaction. A wise man told me long ago that you should throw out what you saw the previous week because teams are never as good or as bad as they played in their last game and here we have a situation where Baltimore could not have looked worse in winning while New England could not have looked better = hyper line inflation. A fact that is magnified because this is the playoffs where many, many more people are watching and betting the games. There is a reason why only 4 times in 30 tries has a team covered in the playoffs after winning by 35+ points and that is because A. Teams are never as good as they look the week before and B. Lines are more volatile in the playoffs. I think anyone laying the points with New England should ask themselves if this time last week they would have laid 7 in this spot. I doubt many would. The Pats could certainly blow them out but anyone betting New England in this game is betting an inflated point spread and that is a long term losing proposition.
I bet New England last week because Denver sucks. It was a terrible spot for the Broncos and a nice spot for the Patriots defense to make a statement......because they could! Denver was not equppied to come back from a deficit. It was an embarrassment watching Tebow scramble around when the Broncos got done. This was the same Broncos offense that had scored 17 points combined before the Pittsburgh game against the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo. The Pittsburgh game was an outlier, a good spot for Denver. I threw it out when I considered betting New England last week. This time around it is the same story, it was a bad spot for Denver last week and the performance by the Pats defense was I believe an outlier. I will throw it out. New England's defense still stinks. Their numbers are historically bad, they give up 6 yards per play which is unthinkably bad, and perhaps more importantly they cannot get off the field. If the Patriots won the Super Bowl they will have done so with the worst TOP in NFL history for a Super Bowl champ. I see many saying that is because they score quickly. I disagree, it because they are 28th in the NFL in 3rd down defense. I don't believe this unit has turned it around. They have got some players back like the Giants have but there are two differences. Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes are not leaders, or integral parts of a team like Tuck, Osi, Boley and those guys are for the Giants. And apart from the Denver game which I put zero stock into, the defense was not any better when they played vs when they were out. They gave up 21 PPG when they were in vs 21.6 PPG when they were out.
I think people are getting way too caught up in this "how are they going to defend the TE's and Welker" and all these other guys. How were the Giants going to defend that offense in the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Defense always wins this time of year. We have seen time and time again that teams that can get pressure with strong fronts and have decent coverage units can give Brady fits. He kills the blitz but struggles against these types of teams. Baltimore has the pieces to be able to do that. They have a very good secondary this year and their front has been good as well. If you look at the teams Brady has played this year with that type of defense, he has struggled. New England lost to Pittsburgh and the Giants and they needed a last second TD to beat Dallas. They never scored more than 20 points in any of those games. Even late in the year when Miami's secondary came together and they were playing excellent defense Brady was not up to his usual level. In those 4 games I just mentioned Brady had all 3 of his worst QB ratings of the year and all 4 of his worst YPA games of the year with New England averaging 21 PPG.
People say throw out the playoff game two years ago because these teams were different. I agree. So what about the game these two teams played last year? When the Pats did have the two TE's, they did have Welker, and Baltimore had a worse secondary and some old players at the skill positions? That was supposed to be the big game for New England to get revenge for the playoff loss, they were at home AND off a bye. Yet they needed OT to gut out a 3 point win. In that game Baltimore dominated TOP, Brady struggled, Ray Rice had just 88 yards rushing and Joe Flacco played lights out 27/35 285 YDS 2 TD and 0 INT. And these two teams really that different?
Baltimore was horrible last week. They are much better than that and they know it. Matt Birk on if they were angry after the game: "Yeah, we were. We hold ourselves to a higher standard than that and if we want to get to where we want we have to play a lot better". I thought the Ravens would show up and dominate last week but they didn't. Right before the opening kickoff Dan Dierdorf said Harbaugh said before the game that he believed the Ravens think they can win in New England. Right then and there I thought "oh fuck" they are looking ahead. And it looked like they were, it was a listless performance.
I think New England is just another paper tiger with a sexy offense that people get carried away
with, and no defense. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls they had Hall of Famers
on defense and were dynamite on that side of the ball. In 2003 and 2004 in particular they finished Top 10 in every defensive category. I don't buy this "mission" BS either. And you know why? Because I believed it last year. I believed it from the first game of preseason. A 14-2 season and some massive blowouts later had me on them against the Jets in the playoffs and they just got beat on the field by a better team. The Jets wanted it just as much, similar to the Ravens this year. This is probably Baltimore's last shot with this group do you not think they want it as bad as New England.
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Been real busy this week. Have some time for writeups:
Baltimore +7.5
Sticking with this one as I think it is a severe overreaction. A wise man told me long ago that you should throw out what you saw the previous week because teams are never as good or as bad as they played in their last game and here we have a situation where Baltimore could not have looked worse in winning while New England could not have looked better = hyper line inflation. A fact that is magnified because this is the playoffs where many, many more people are watching and betting the games. There is a reason why only 4 times in 30 tries has a team covered in the playoffs after winning by 35+ points and that is because A. Teams are never as good as they look the week before and B. Lines are more volatile in the playoffs. I think anyone laying the points with New England should ask themselves if this time last week they would have laid 7 in this spot. I doubt many would. The Pats could certainly blow them out but anyone betting New England in this game is betting an inflated point spread and that is a long term losing proposition.
I bet New England last week because Denver sucks. It was a terrible spot for the Broncos and a nice spot for the Patriots defense to make a statement......because they could! Denver was not equppied to come back from a deficit. It was an embarrassment watching Tebow scramble around when the Broncos got done. This was the same Broncos offense that had scored 17 points combined before the Pittsburgh game against the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo. The Pittsburgh game was an outlier, a good spot for Denver. I threw it out when I considered betting New England last week. This time around it is the same story, it was a bad spot for Denver last week and the performance by the Pats defense was I believe an outlier. I will throw it out. New England's defense still stinks. Their numbers are historically bad, they give up 6 yards per play which is unthinkably bad, and perhaps more importantly they cannot get off the field. If the Patriots won the Super Bowl they will have done so with the worst TOP in NFL history for a Super Bowl champ. I see many saying that is because they score quickly. I disagree, it because they are 28th in the NFL in 3rd down defense. I don't believe this unit has turned it around. They have got some players back like the Giants have but there are two differences. Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes are not leaders, or integral parts of a team like Tuck, Osi, Boley and those guys are for the Giants. And apart from the Denver game which I put zero stock into, the defense was not any better when they played vs when they were out. They gave up 21 PPG when they were in vs 21.6 PPG when they were out.
I think people are getting way too caught up in this "how are they going to defend the TE's and Welker" and all these other guys. How were the Giants going to defend that offense in the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Defense always wins this time of year. We have seen time and time again that teams that can get pressure with strong fronts and have decent coverage units can give Brady fits. He kills the blitz but struggles against these types of teams. Baltimore has the pieces to be able to do that. They have a very good secondary this year and their front has been good as well. If you look at the teams Brady has played this year with that type of defense, he has struggled. New England lost to Pittsburgh and the Giants and they needed a last second TD to beat Dallas. They never scored more than 20 points in any of those games. Even late in the year when Miami's secondary came together and they were playing excellent defense Brady was not up to his usual level. In those 4 games I just mentioned Brady had all 3 of his worst QB ratings of the year and all 4 of his worst YPA games of the year with New England averaging 21 PPG.
People say throw out the playoff game two years ago because these teams were different. I agree. So what about the game these two teams played last year? When the Pats did have the two TE's, they did have Welker, and Baltimore had a worse secondary and some old players at the skill positions? That was supposed to be the big game for New England to get revenge for the playoff loss, they were at home AND off a bye. Yet they needed OT to gut out a 3 point win. In that game Baltimore dominated TOP, Brady struggled, Ray Rice had just 88 yards rushing and Joe Flacco played lights out 27/35 285 YDS 2 TD and 0 INT. And these two teams really that different?
Baltimore was horrible last week. They are much better than that and they know it. Matt Birk on if they were angry after the game: "Yeah, we were. We hold ourselves to a higher standard than that and if we want to get to where we want we have to play a lot better". I thought the Ravens would show up and dominate last week but they didn't. Right before the opening kickoff Dan Dierdorf said Harbaugh said before the game that he believed the Ravens think they can win in New England. Right then and there I thought "oh fuck" they are looking ahead. And it looked like they were, it was a listless performance.
I think New England is just another paper tiger with a sexy offense that people get carried away
with, and no defense. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls they had Hall of Famers
on defense and were dynamite on that side of the ball. In 2003 and 2004 in particular they finished Top 10 in every defensive category. I don't buy this "mission" BS either. And you know why? Because I believed it last year. I believed it from the first game of preseason. A 14-2 season and some massive blowouts later had me on them against the Jets in the playoffs and they just got beat on the field by a better team. The Jets wanted it just as much, similar to the Ravens this year. This is probably Baltimore's last shot with this group do you not think they want it as bad as New England.
Been real busy this week. Have some time for writeups:
Baltimore +7.5
Sticking with this one as I think it is a severe overreaction. A wise man told me long ago that you should throw out what you saw the previous week because teams are never as good or as bad as they played in their last game and here we have a situation where Baltimore could not have looked worse in winning while New England could not have looked better = hyper line inflation. A fact that is magnified because this is the playoffs where many, many more people are watching and betting the games. There is a reason why only 4 times in 30 tries has a team covered in the playoffs after winning by 35+ points and that is because A. Teams are never as good as they look the week before and B. Lines are more volatile in the playoffs. I think anyone laying the points with New England should ask themselves if this time last week they would have laid 7 in this spot. I doubt many would. The Pats could certainly blow them out but anyone betting New England in this game is betting an inflated point spread and that is a long term losing proposition.
I bet New England last week because Denver sucks. It was a terrible spot for the Broncos and a nice spot for the Patriots defense to make a statement......because they could! Denver was not equppied to come back from a deficit. It was an embarrassment watching Tebow scramble around when the Broncos got done. This was the same Broncos offense that had scored 17 points combined before the Pittsburgh game against the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo. The Pittsburgh game was an outlier, a good spot for Denver. I threw it out when I considered betting New England last week. This time around it is the same story, it was a bad spot for Denver last week and the performance by the Pats defense was I believe an outlier. I will throw it out. New England's defense still stinks. Their numbers are historically bad, they give up 6 yards per play which is unthinkably bad, and perhaps more importantly they cannot get off the field. If the Patriots won the Super Bowl they will have done so with the worst TOP in NFL history for a Super Bowl champ. I see many saying that is because they score quickly. I disagree, it because they are 28th in the NFL in 3rd down defense. I don't believe this unit has turned it around. They have got some players back like the Giants have but there are two differences. Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes are not leaders, or integral parts of a team like Tuck, Osi, Boley and those guys are for the Giants. And apart from the Denver game which I put zero stock into, the defense was not any better when they played vs when they were out. They gave up 21 PPG when they were in vs 21.6 PPG when they were out.
I think people are getting way too caught up in this "how are they going to defend the TE's and Welker" and all these other guys. How were the Giants going to defend that offense in the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Defense always wins this time of year. We have seen time and time again that teams that can get pressure with strong fronts and have decent coverage units can give Brady fits. He kills the blitz but struggles against these types of teams. Baltimore has the pieces to be able to do that. They have a very good secondary this year and their front has been good as well. If you look at the teams Brady has played this year with that type of defense, he has struggled. New England lost to Pittsburgh and the Giants and they needed a last second TD to beat Dallas. They never scored more than 20 points in any of those games. Even late in the year when Miami's secondary came together and they were playing excellent defense Brady was not up to his usual level. In those 4 games I just mentioned Brady had all 3 of his worst QB ratings of the year and all 4 of his worst YPA games of the year with New England averaging 21 PPG.
People say throw out the playoff game two years ago because these teams were different. I agree. So what about the game these two teams played last year? When the Pats did have the two TE's, they did have Welker, and Baltimore had a worse secondary and some old players at the skill positions? That was supposed to be the big game for New England to get revenge for the playoff loss, they were at home AND off a bye. Yet they needed OT to gut out a 3 point win. In that game Baltimore dominated TOP, Brady struggled, Ray Rice had just 88 yards rushing and Joe Flacco played lights out 27/35 285 YDS 2 TD and 0 INT. And these two teams really that different?
Baltimore was horrible last week. They are much better than that and they know it. Matt Birk on if they were angry after the game: "Yeah, we were. We hold ourselves to a higher standard than that and if we want to get to where we want we have to play a lot better". I thought the Ravens would show up and dominate last week but they didn't. Right before the opening kickoff Dan Dierdorf said Harbaugh said before the game that he believed the Ravens think they can win in New England. Right then and there I thought "oh fuck" they are looking ahead. And it looked like they were, it was a listless performance.
I think New England is just another paper tiger with a sexy offense that people get carried away
with, and no defense. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls they had Hall of Famers
on defense and were dynamite on that side of the ball. In 2003 and 2004 in particular they finished Top 10 in every defensive category. I don't buy this "mission" BS either. And you know why? Because I believed it last year. I believed it from the first game of preseason. A 14-2 season and some massive blowouts later had me on them against the Jets in the playoffs and they just got beat on the field by a better team. The Jets wanted it just as much, similar to the Ravens this year. This is probably Baltimore's last shot with this group do you not think they want it as bad as New England.
Thought the same thing.............the Ravens could have won by 21 if they wanted imo.........playing around at the 1 yard line instead of kicking a fg to cover.........they were definitely looking ahead, especially their defense.......did the even try blitzing 3 or 4 times in the game..........Ravens play down to their competition & get up for the big games...........
Yes, with a 3rd string qb in Houston, the Ravens knew they could win the game w/o trying very hard, even tho the Texans have one heck of a defense..............
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Been real busy this week. Have some time for writeups:
Baltimore +7.5
Sticking with this one as I think it is a severe overreaction. A wise man told me long ago that you should throw out what you saw the previous week because teams are never as good or as bad as they played in their last game and here we have a situation where Baltimore could not have looked worse in winning while New England could not have looked better = hyper line inflation. A fact that is magnified because this is the playoffs where many, many more people are watching and betting the games. There is a reason why only 4 times in 30 tries has a team covered in the playoffs after winning by 35+ points and that is because A. Teams are never as good as they look the week before and B. Lines are more volatile in the playoffs. I think anyone laying the points with New England should ask themselves if this time last week they would have laid 7 in this spot. I doubt many would. The Pats could certainly blow them out but anyone betting New England in this game is betting an inflated point spread and that is a long term losing proposition.
I bet New England last week because Denver sucks. It was a terrible spot for the Broncos and a nice spot for the Patriots defense to make a statement......because they could! Denver was not equppied to come back from a deficit. It was an embarrassment watching Tebow scramble around when the Broncos got done. This was the same Broncos offense that had scored 17 points combined before the Pittsburgh game against the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo. The Pittsburgh game was an outlier, a good spot for Denver. I threw it out when I considered betting New England last week. This time around it is the same story, it was a bad spot for Denver last week and the performance by the Pats defense was I believe an outlier. I will throw it out. New England's defense still stinks. Their numbers are historically bad, they give up 6 yards per play which is unthinkably bad, and perhaps more importantly they cannot get off the field. If the Patriots won the Super Bowl they will have done so with the worst TOP in NFL history for a Super Bowl champ. I see many saying that is because they score quickly. I disagree, it because they are 28th in the NFL in 3rd down defense. I don't believe this unit has turned it around. They have got some players back like the Giants have but there are two differences. Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes are not leaders, or integral parts of a team like Tuck, Osi, Boley and those guys are for the Giants. And apart from the Denver game which I put zero stock into, the defense was not any better when they played vs when they were out. They gave up 21 PPG when they were in vs 21.6 PPG when they were out.
I think people are getting way too caught up in this "how are they going to defend the TE's and Welker" and all these other guys. How were the Giants going to defend that offense in the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Defense always wins this time of year. We have seen time and time again that teams that can get pressure with strong fronts and have decent coverage units can give Brady fits. He kills the blitz but struggles against these types of teams. Baltimore has the pieces to be able to do that. They have a very good secondary this year and their front has been good as well. If you look at the teams Brady has played this year with that type of defense, he has struggled. New England lost to Pittsburgh and the Giants and they needed a last second TD to beat Dallas. They never scored more than 20 points in any of those games. Even late in the year when Miami's secondary came together and they were playing excellent defense Brady was not up to his usual level. In those 4 games I just mentioned Brady had all 3 of his worst QB ratings of the year and all 4 of his worst YPA games of the year with New England averaging 21 PPG.
People say throw out the playoff game two years ago because these teams were different. I agree. So what about the game these two teams played last year? When the Pats did have the two TE's, they did have Welker, and Baltimore had a worse secondary and some old players at the skill positions? That was supposed to be the big game for New England to get revenge for the playoff loss, they were at home AND off a bye. Yet they needed OT to gut out a 3 point win. In that game Baltimore dominated TOP, Brady struggled, Ray Rice had just 88 yards rushing and Joe Flacco played lights out 27/35 285 YDS 2 TD and 0 INT. And these two teams really that different?
Baltimore was horrible last week. They are much better than that and they know it. Matt Birk on if they were angry after the game: "Yeah, we were. We hold ourselves to a higher standard than that and if we want to get to where we want we have to play a lot better". I thought the Ravens would show up and dominate last week but they didn't. Right before the opening kickoff Dan Dierdorf said Harbaugh said before the game that he believed the Ravens think they can win in New England. Right then and there I thought "oh fuck" they are looking ahead. And it looked like they were, it was a listless performance.
I think New England is just another paper tiger with a sexy offense that people get carried away
with, and no defense. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls they had Hall of Famers
on defense and were dynamite on that side of the ball. In 2003 and 2004 in particular they finished Top 10 in every defensive category. I don't buy this "mission" BS either. And you know why? Because I believed it last year. I believed it from the first game of preseason. A 14-2 season and some massive blowouts later had me on them against the Jets in the playoffs and they just got beat on the field by a better team. The Jets wanted it just as much, similar to the Ravens this year. This is probably Baltimore's last shot with this group do you not think they want it as bad as New England.
Thought the same thing.............the Ravens could have won by 21 if they wanted imo.........playing around at the 1 yard line instead of kicking a fg to cover.........they were definitely looking ahead, especially their defense.......did the even try blitzing 3 or 4 times in the game..........Ravens play down to their competition & get up for the big games...........
Yes, with a 3rd string qb in Houston, the Ravens knew they could win the game w/o trying very hard, even tho the Texans have one heck of a defense..............
I lost money betting against San Fran last week and I'm willing to do it again. I just can't buy into this club. I don't see a complete team when I look at this group. I think most people betting on the Giants in this game are doing exactly that, betting ON the Giants. I'm betting against San Francisco, well, mostly.
The turnover run these guys are on is crazy. Hey, they do keep getting them but what happens when they play a game where they don't? Tom Jackson said it best last week after Green Bay who has relied so much on turnovers (#2 in the league behind San Fran) didn't get them in their loss to the Giants: "When the turnovers don't come you are exposed for what you truly are". Powerful stuff from a guy who knows what he's talking about and when (or if) San Fran doesn't get crazy amounts of turnovers I think they will be exposed. San Fran stunk on 3rd down again at 4-15 against the Saints. Against New Orleans they lost TOP and they were outgained. San Fran has been outgained in every game they have played against a playoff team this season and they are still negative in net yards per play. Since 1975 teams that are -4 or more in turnovers in a game are 48-1151 SU. That's a win percentage of 4% over 37 years. New Orleans was -4 last week and yet they still had the lead late in the game! San Fran was in that spot because offensively this is not a good football team.
I give San Fran credit for coming back and winning last week. However I did not like what I saw from their offense. They only had 3 drives of over 50 yards and two of them came when they were trailing. They looked extraordinarily inept and complacent when they had the lead. You do have to give them credit for making plays when they were down but really it was some long throws to Vernon Davis in 1 on 1 coverage. The only way New Orleans could have lost on that last drive last week was getting beat deep. So instead of keeping everything in front of them the Saints sent the house and of course got beat deep. It was awful coaching and essentially cost Gregg Williams his job. Go back and watch the final drive before that big play to Davis. San Fran had about a minute and they were going nowhere. A couple of short passes and no urgency at all. Smith was standing there yelling at every guy on the field as he chewed through the clock. If they had lost it would have been remembered as some of the worst management ever to end a playoff game. But instead they hit the big plays and all is forgotten. The whole thing brings up an interesting dynamic this week: If San Fran looked that shaky playing with a lead, how will they react to being favored to go to the Super Bowl? This is a conservative team and I expect them to play "not to lose" and we all know how that usually works out.
I'm a believer in the Giants. I talked myself out of betting them last week which was obviously a horrible move. This team really caught my eye down the stretch and this time my head and gut are on the same page. I'm not sure I buy the whole "momentum" thing though. These teams that have got hot in recent seasons and have run to the Super Bowl all have one thing in common: Health. They have all got key players back to turn so-so regular seasons into Super Bowl runs. In 2005 the Steelers were not the same team in the playoffs because they had Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis back healthy. In 2006 the Colts were not the same team because they got their defensive captain and NFL defensive MVP Bob Sanders back. Last season the Packers did not lose another game after Aaron Rodgers came back from his 2nd concussion of the year. This year the Giants have had a ton of injuries to key players but now they are all back and healthy. I talked about this in Post #36 in this thread, here's what I said with the now updated numbers: "The fact that they are healthy is a big plus for me. They have had a ton
of injuries this year. Tuck, JPP, Osi and Micheal Boley are their most
important players and they have only finished 5 games together all
season. Giants went 5-0 in those games and 4-1 ATS. They had 19 sacks
and gave up 17, 20, 14, 2, and 20 points. Including holding the Pats to 3 points in
Foxboro through 3 quarters and holding down a good Dallas offense last
week (and now the Packers to 20 in Lambeau). A great pass rush can coverup for a bad secondary, that's what the
Giants did a few years ago. Jacobs and Bradshaw playing in the same
game is also a plus. In the 12 games those two played this year the
Giants went 9-3 SU & ATS. The Giants also scored at least 28 points
in 8 of those 12 games."
The Giants defense is playing lights out right now with all their guys back. In the 5 games all of these guys have been healthy they have not allowed more than 20 points in a game and have averaged 14.6 points allowed, which coincidentally is almost the exact same number San Fran has allowed for the season. And that was despite playing probably two of the Top 10 offenses in NFL history on the road @GB and @NE. The Giants can get pressure with their front 4. San Fran does not have a good offensive line and I think New York has a clear advantage here. The Giants can afford to have guys sit back because their defensive line is so dominate, something the Saints couldn't do which ultimately cost them big. San Francisco is 1-3 this year when giving up 5+ sacks.Offensively I think the Giants are better than San Fran. They have three really good WR and a stud QB and even though the run game may struggle you can bet they will try to pound away to set up the play action which has been deadly for the Giants. San Fran is not immune to the big play either as they have given up the 5th most 40+ yard pass plays in the league.
I'm not buying the weather element. It's not like the Giants haven't played in bad weather before. It rained most of the Dallas game if I'm not mistaken and they still whooped em. As far as the footing goes I see many saying it will affect the Giants receivers. Slipping could be an issue but why wouldn't it affect a Niners defense that is built on speed just as much? Who is more likely to slip, a guy who makes a sharp cut and knows where he's running or a guy that has to react and make a cut to catch up?
Ted Ginn is also a big loss for SF here, certainly more than if Ballard doesn't play for the Giants. Ginn is their special teams ace returner.
GL this week.
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NY Giants +.....?
I lost money betting against San Fran last week and I'm willing to do it again. I just can't buy into this club. I don't see a complete team when I look at this group. I think most people betting on the Giants in this game are doing exactly that, betting ON the Giants. I'm betting against San Francisco, well, mostly.
The turnover run these guys are on is crazy. Hey, they do keep getting them but what happens when they play a game where they don't? Tom Jackson said it best last week after Green Bay who has relied so much on turnovers (#2 in the league behind San Fran) didn't get them in their loss to the Giants: "When the turnovers don't come you are exposed for what you truly are". Powerful stuff from a guy who knows what he's talking about and when (or if) San Fran doesn't get crazy amounts of turnovers I think they will be exposed. San Fran stunk on 3rd down again at 4-15 against the Saints. Against New Orleans they lost TOP and they were outgained. San Fran has been outgained in every game they have played against a playoff team this season and they are still negative in net yards per play. Since 1975 teams that are -4 or more in turnovers in a game are 48-1151 SU. That's a win percentage of 4% over 37 years. New Orleans was -4 last week and yet they still had the lead late in the game! San Fran was in that spot because offensively this is not a good football team.
I give San Fran credit for coming back and winning last week. However I did not like what I saw from their offense. They only had 3 drives of over 50 yards and two of them came when they were trailing. They looked extraordinarily inept and complacent when they had the lead. You do have to give them credit for making plays when they were down but really it was some long throws to Vernon Davis in 1 on 1 coverage. The only way New Orleans could have lost on that last drive last week was getting beat deep. So instead of keeping everything in front of them the Saints sent the house and of course got beat deep. It was awful coaching and essentially cost Gregg Williams his job. Go back and watch the final drive before that big play to Davis. San Fran had about a minute and they were going nowhere. A couple of short passes and no urgency at all. Smith was standing there yelling at every guy on the field as he chewed through the clock. If they had lost it would have been remembered as some of the worst management ever to end a playoff game. But instead they hit the big plays and all is forgotten. The whole thing brings up an interesting dynamic this week: If San Fran looked that shaky playing with a lead, how will they react to being favored to go to the Super Bowl? This is a conservative team and I expect them to play "not to lose" and we all know how that usually works out.
I'm a believer in the Giants. I talked myself out of betting them last week which was obviously a horrible move. This team really caught my eye down the stretch and this time my head and gut are on the same page. I'm not sure I buy the whole "momentum" thing though. These teams that have got hot in recent seasons and have run to the Super Bowl all have one thing in common: Health. They have all got key players back to turn so-so regular seasons into Super Bowl runs. In 2005 the Steelers were not the same team in the playoffs because they had Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis back healthy. In 2006 the Colts were not the same team because they got their defensive captain and NFL defensive MVP Bob Sanders back. Last season the Packers did not lose another game after Aaron Rodgers came back from his 2nd concussion of the year. This year the Giants have had a ton of injuries to key players but now they are all back and healthy. I talked about this in Post #36 in this thread, here's what I said with the now updated numbers: "The fact that they are healthy is a big plus for me. They have had a ton
of injuries this year. Tuck, JPP, Osi and Micheal Boley are their most
important players and they have only finished 5 games together all
season. Giants went 5-0 in those games and 4-1 ATS. They had 19 sacks
and gave up 17, 20, 14, 2, and 20 points. Including holding the Pats to 3 points in
Foxboro through 3 quarters and holding down a good Dallas offense last
week (and now the Packers to 20 in Lambeau). A great pass rush can coverup for a bad secondary, that's what the
Giants did a few years ago. Jacobs and Bradshaw playing in the same
game is also a plus. In the 12 games those two played this year the
Giants went 9-3 SU & ATS. The Giants also scored at least 28 points
in 8 of those 12 games."
The Giants defense is playing lights out right now with all their guys back. In the 5 games all of these guys have been healthy they have not allowed more than 20 points in a game and have averaged 14.6 points allowed, which coincidentally is almost the exact same number San Fran has allowed for the season. And that was despite playing probably two of the Top 10 offenses in NFL history on the road @GB and @NE. The Giants can get pressure with their front 4. San Fran does not have a good offensive line and I think New York has a clear advantage here. The Giants can afford to have guys sit back because their defensive line is so dominate, something the Saints couldn't do which ultimately cost them big. San Francisco is 1-3 this year when giving up 5+ sacks.Offensively I think the Giants are better than San Fran. They have three really good WR and a stud QB and even though the run game may struggle you can bet they will try to pound away to set up the play action which has been deadly for the Giants. San Fran is not immune to the big play either as they have given up the 5th most 40+ yard pass plays in the league.
I'm not buying the weather element. It's not like the Giants haven't played in bad weather before. It rained most of the Dallas game if I'm not mistaken and they still whooped em. As far as the footing goes I see many saying it will affect the Giants receivers. Slipping could be an issue but why wouldn't it affect a Niners defense that is built on speed just as much? Who is more likely to slip, a guy who makes a sharp cut and knows where he's running or a guy that has to react and make a cut to catch up?
Ted Ginn is also a big loss for SF here, certainly more than if Ballard doesn't play for the Giants. Ginn is their special teams ace returner.
San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
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San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
We'll see.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
What about the Giants?
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
San Fran lost the turnover battle AT Detroit and still won...this team wins every way imaginable. Everyone keeps waiting for the Niners to be exposed. They'll still be waiting after this week too.
I feel like I'm starting to see it well for this matchup and I'll be very surprised if I am wrong on this one. You thread will be the first one I bump if I am. Good run so far in the p;ayoffs bro and good luck on Sunday even if you are against me haha.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
We'll see.
We will buddy.
I feel like I'm starting to see it well for this matchup and I'll be very surprised if I am wrong on this one. You thread will be the first one I bump if I am. Good run so far in the p;ayoffs bro and good luck on Sunday even if you are against me haha.
Keep fading Jimmy Harbaugh and the Niners. People keep forgetting that it was the Saints not the Giants who were by FAR the hottest team in the NFL going into last weeks games. The Saints were crushing teams and destroyed the Giants as well. It's amazing how people give no credit to the Niners for taking down the hottest team in the NFL. Keep sleeping on Alex Smith. Eli has had 4 hot games in a row. He will have a bad game vs SF defense. Your totally ignoring the special teams factor in this game. Niners kicker/punter combo is tops in the NFL and blow away the Giants special teams. On a nasty field those assets will pay huge dividends. Lee will flip field position all game and Akers is money unlike Tynes who sucks balls and missed another chip shot last week. Your only chance is for Eli to have a perfect game and go crazy. Giants won't run on this team. They couldn't even run on GB. Want to talk about flukey? Look no more then last weeks GB/NY game. 8 dropped passes, wide open missed throws, hail Mary TD? Really? Alex Smith at home is 18-2 ATS last 20.
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Keep fading Jimmy Harbaugh and the Niners. People keep forgetting that it was the Saints not the Giants who were by FAR the hottest team in the NFL going into last weeks games. The Saints were crushing teams and destroyed the Giants as well. It's amazing how people give no credit to the Niners for taking down the hottest team in the NFL. Keep sleeping on Alex Smith. Eli has had 4 hot games in a row. He will have a bad game vs SF defense. Your totally ignoring the special teams factor in this game. Niners kicker/punter combo is tops in the NFL and blow away the Giants special teams. On a nasty field those assets will pay huge dividends. Lee will flip field position all game and Akers is money unlike Tynes who sucks balls and missed another chip shot last week. Your only chance is for Eli to have a perfect game and go crazy. Giants won't run on this team. They couldn't even run on GB. Want to talk about flukey? Look no more then last weeks GB/NY game. 8 dropped passes, wide open missed throws, hail Mary TD? Really? Alex Smith at home is 18-2 ATS last 20.
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