NFL Playoffs

There's still plenty of time to go but I'm quite certain my money will be on the Patriots. 1-53 I do feel the Giants are probably the more complete and well-rounded team. And New York also has the better body of work there is absolutely no argument there, however just because they are probably more complete on paper doesn't necessarily mean they will win.

When (and it isn't often) the Patriots lose they usually do so when they reach the point where no one thinks they are going to lose. It is still early but there is a lot of Giants talk out there. Many people believe this team should be favored, their front 4 will punish Brady, and Eli will shit on this secondary throwing to these receivers. I think the Giants will be the sexy pick here although it is still early. One thing I've learned over the years is that when the Pats are the 2nd story and many people pick them to struggle or lose that is usually when they are at their absolute best. I mean just looking at this year where New England was the 2nd story going into a game and/or many people were on the other side picking them to lose: They blew the shit out of Denver twice. After their defense looked shaky against Tyler Palko and the Eagles were off a big win against the Giants many thought NE would go down (myself included) but instead nope, they get down early but calmly beat the shit out of Philly on the road. Then there was the 2nd Jets game on the road on SNF where they were coming in off two straight losses and this was supposed to be the game where "the dynasty falls" and the Jets take over the division, but again it doesn't work out that way and New England whips them by 3 TD's (a beating the Jets never recovered from). It is usually after these types of games where people wonder what the hell they were doing betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in spots like this.

As I mentioned I do think top to bottom the Giants probably have more talent. If New England won the Super Bowl they will have done so with the worst defense ever. There are many longterm Super Bowl trends that say the Giants are the play here and New England should lose easily. The problem though is that this Patriots team has bucked trends and conventional wisdom ever since Belichick and Brady teamed up. As far as I'm concerned no team in professional sports is as good at overcoming the odds as these guys. In past years in spots where almost every other team would come up short I find myself pulling back on fading New England because it is in those spots where they usually come up the biggest. There are many long term trends out there that this team has fucked up or ruined. I mean some great ones where you just have to put an asterisk next to it because the team that bucked it was the Pats. They are the exception to almost every NFL rule (and they've proven it over the years). So as far as the trend of "defense winning championships" is concerned, maybe this is just another long term trend that New England bucks.

As far as the actual game goes let's first discuss the line. While I do not think the line inflation is as great as the NE/BAL game it is still amusing how quickly people overreact. Flash back to one week ago and where would this line be? Almost down to 2.5? No way! This time last week Brady was coming off a 6 TD game and the defense was dominate. Yes, the Giants were also off a mighty impressive performance but people's opinions regarding New England would have been nowhere near what they are now. The Giants didn't look great last week but they played OK. The Patriots on the other hand looked absolutely horrible. They looked worse in winning than the Ravens did against the Texans. Most everyone thinks they absolutely got away with one against Baltimore. What was that crazy stat they showed on ESPN, that teams that won the turnover battle by 2 or more, had more yards, TOP, and 1st downs had been 115-1 before last week? Well now they are 115-2 (another trend New England bucked). The fact is I really don't think New England plays that bad again. That was their "bad game" last week, they played their worst and are still standing which is a scary thought. Just like they weren't going to play as well against Baltimore as they did against Denver, I do not see them playing nearly as bad because no team is as good or as bad as they looked the week before. The Pats should have lost last week and they are just too good and too well-coached to play like shit again. Tom Brady played his worst game in two years last week and they still won. He admitted immediately after the game that he "sucked". Does anyone think he is going to "suck" two games in a row with two weeks to prepare?

Many people many think this is a tough matchup for the NE offense because of the Giants front 4. However the Pats have been going to a ton of no huddle and hurry-up lately and I think that will be huge here. By doing this it will limit the Giants pass rush quite a bit. I hear a lot of people saying the Pats don't have a guy to stretch the field and I say great! Stretching the field and throwing deep takes time and that plays into the strength of the Giants pass rush. Throwing those short and intermediate routes takes little time and although not sexy it moves the chains. I do not fully trust the Giants back 7. I have been on them lately because the pass rush has covered up their weaknesses back there but if New England can limit the rush but throwing quick and short this back 7 could be exposed. The safeties are especially weak in coverage, the one guy they had to worry about last week was Vernon Davis and how many times was he running free? The health of Gronk is obviously going to be huge but the TE's for NE should be able to do a lot of damage. I also like Welker, Branch etc. These guys usually struggle against big, physical corners (like the Ravens have) but I think they can attack these Giants corners quite a bit. Welker should have a huge game. It should also be concerning that the Giants rush defense has been god awful the last two weeks.

Running out of time now but will have some thoughts on the Giants O vs Pats D and the early game these two teams played earlier when I get a chance.

Andy, great post -- the Giants "back 7" is a problem for the Giants.  The Pats started the season in the No Huddle offense and they will end it in No Huddle. They started this trend this year and Brady is dangerous in it.  Short passes and draw plays are the Pats strength - it will continue. No team has an answer for the Pats Tight Ends.  I expect some designed plays for Branch and Ochocinco also -- they are lost in the Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker numbers.  The Pats game plan is to score plenty early and dictate opponents play calling.  With this 55 total .....Vegas is anticipating Brady and to score.  Clearly Belichek needs to address Bradshaw and Victor Cruz.  Ray Rice had a weak first half last week (better success in the 2nd half)....I suspect Bradshaw will meet the same...70 yards or so.  I concur that the Giants have more talent in all 53 players but, I am not going against the Patriots in this one.  I have a stong lean on the UNDER also.  Great to see your posts and insights - all year. - McGee

on it as well Andarmac.  And no one is talking about the Pats o-line which is dominating people. 

Did Suggs even have an impact last week?  Brady had an off game, but didn't seem it was from pressure.  He had time. 

Keep talking about how bad the Gmen can take care of the secondary, but not how the Gmen are a 1-trick pony and BB always takes that weapon away (Cruz).  BB is going to dare the Gmen to run the ball to win the game---which they can't do against the Pats d-line.

btw, glad I stayed awya from the Niners last week---just bet the under large instead. 

Coach Bill will try his darned best to neutralize the giants pass rush. Expect draws,screens,gadget plays,etc.. 

Nice writeups andarmac99. I enjoyed reading them. I'm leaning now strongly in New England's direction. Though the Patrots were badly outplayed in Pittsburgh, they were still in it to the end. They kept fighting and scratching and who says that character can't be coached?

Andy, as far as the game, I have went over this a few time, I know some of the sports book people here in Vegas.  Why or how could the odds makers mess this line up, opened at -4 was imm bet to -3.5 in the biggest most bet game of the year?  That being said, I think they would of got a lot of equal action on both sides if the line opened at 2.5.  You would think that the Pats are the right side based off the line opening.  Most squares are gonna run and bet the giants at +3.5..The line comes to 2.5 and all the sharps will bet on the Pats.  The squares dont' usually bet large amounts of money, the sharps usually do.  This being said, I think the odds makers manipulated the line so that they get the sharp, aka bigger money, on the pats, and will win big money if the Giants cover.  My 2 cents, gl

If the Saints don't fumble 4 times,  Niners wouldn't have this problem. 

Oops, I forgot.  Saints fumbles were caused because of the "tough" Niner defense.  Niner fumbles are caused by mental mistakes

With all due respect, there's been plenty of times when people thought NE would lose AND THEY DID. Heck, last year for instance.  People thought Balt was the better play.  And Balt won. 

At this point, I don't think it makes a difference if NE were a 20 pt favorite or a dog.  It's the Super Bowl, and neither team has been there in 4 years.  Both teams should be hungry to win it all. 

For the record, I'm on NYG, but only for a bit.  I do think NE is overrated, but that they have the better offense.  But NYG has the better D. 

GL w/ which ever side you take. 

gl but opposite here. its the 3rd time we have seen a team get hot going into playoffs and run the table since 08. i believe the square thinking is that people r going to think that tom and bill and the pats cant be beaten by the same team twice in 1 year. or they cant lose to the giants again in the superbowl or its revenge. thats what im hearing here in vegas from alot of people and these people r usually wrong. going to be a great game but im going with the hotter defense the more complete team and the fact that eli is on a mission and he wants to prove he is on bradys level. wouldnt be surprised at all to see the pats win but im on the giants

why r u ripping off seaweed?

Is Seaweed a good gambler or bad gambler? I saw him trolling on another forum.

LOL Just like saying that if the Packers didnt turn the ball over 4 times and the Giants didnt recover their own fumble 3 times they wouldnt be here!!But it allhappend and these are the  2 teams left

Composite, turnovers are part of football, if Minny didn't turn the ball over 5 x the Saints don't win a championship, same scenario there and then they go out and beat the Colts. 

Been extremely busy the last little while and haven't had a chance to post. I could break this game down more as far as the matchup goes (and will some) but honestly I think I said all the important stuff as far as I'm concerned in the earlier two posts. Every time I turn on the TV one of the blowhards is asking "how the hell are the Patriots favored"? The main reasons for this question being asked are that the Giants have beaten better teams, Pats should have lost last week, Giants beat em earlier in the year and 4 years ago, and NE's defense is dogshit.

It seems like this Patriots team and their 15-3 record, Hall of Fame coach and QB are almost being overlooked. This is the situational aspect that has almost entirely flipped from 4 years ago and basically the only relevant comparison between Super Bowls 42 and 46. Back then no one thought the Giants could win, the Patriots had the weight of universe on them and they cracked. This time a lot of people not only believe the Giants are the better team with the better QB (nonsense) but they believe they can and will win and they also believe they should be favored. 4 years ago the Pats were a little cocky going in (we all remember Brady laughing off the suggestion they would only score 17 points). From what I've seen this week I think the Giants are the ones coming in just a wee bit overconfident. From Canty saying plan the parade to Rolle saying they are expecting to win to JPP basically saying they are in Brady's head I just can't help but think these guys are in for a rude awakening. Unlike 4 years ago it seems like the Pats are the team with something to prove this time around. They have kept their mouths shut all week and just gone about their business. Also they have hardly any pressure compared to 4 years ago. There have been reports all week about how loose Belichick is, he is smiling and cracking jokes. I expect that attitude to rub off on the team. 4 years ago they were tight, this year they should be loose.

All of these little slights and jabs light the Pats fire. We've seen it time and time again. Brady and Belichick are perfectionists and when they are being overlooked they always play angry and are at their best.

And as far as the whole "Why are the Pats favored" thing is concerned people are just overreacting to the last week or two. The oddsmakers aren't going to drastically alter their power rankings based on a couple of games. The number has already been inflated towards the Giants side off the Pats ugly game last week. No way in hell this line is -2.5/3 before the Baltimore game. We already saw hyper line inflation for NE/BAL I just don't think the oddsmakers are going to adjust as much again especially when the game isn't an extreme where one team comes in looking unbeatable and the other like shit. There's no traps or baiting or any of this other hocus pocus people love to tout on here. If anyone really believes the books are going to take a stand on the Super Bowl then you are batshit crazy. They are going to rake it in huge with their juiced up props so why risk losing on the side? This line will attract close to 50/50 money. I have half my bet in on NE -3 +110. Held off just in case the 2.5 pops up at moderate juice. I can't see it coming in at 2.5 regular juice as it would set up the ultimate middle. I'm debating whether to throw down the other half of my side bet on the -3 or Tom Brady for MVP because unless there is a monster game from a receiver, or a DB gets a couple big INT's Brady will win the MVP if the Pats win.

gl Andy...like the play and your thoughts on MVP as well....

I realize I probably just repeated what I said over a week ago in that last post so let's look at the other two factors:

Giants O vs Pats D. I think this is where most people believe the Giants have a distinct edge. They do have a QB who is playing very well as well as a great trio of receivers while NE's defense has been ugly all season. I think I even said in fading them against Baltimore they were a paper tiger. But while they do seemingly play with fire every week sooner or later you do have to give them some credit for bending but not breaking and making plays when it counts by holding teams out of the endzone. I felt the same way about the Saints in 2009. I didn't really trust those guys until the Super Bowl when I realized playing with fire and creating timely turnovers is who they are. I wrote this in 09 about the Saints: Tough to forecast turnovers but that is what this defense has done all season and it's what they have to do to get stops. Manning threw 17 picks this year so it's not like it's out of the question to get a pick or two if they can't come up with a fumble. Ironically the Pats play the same style of defense (I believe NO ranked 25th that year) and they are playing a Manning that has throw 17 picks up to this point. It took the Saints a while to force the key play in that 2009 Super Bowl but when the Colts were driving in the 4th BAM! next thing you know Tracy Porter is running the other way with a game-clinching 73 yard TD.

I feel the same way here. The Giants may put up some yards but the Pats D will come up with a big play or two when they have to because that is what they have done all season. And Manning isn't immune to throwing a pick either as we've seen throughout his career. On two separate occasions against SF he threw horrible balls that would have been easy picks but both times two SF defenders ran into each other trying to catch the ball.

The Giants Team Total for this game is 27. Through 18 games this year the Patriots have given up more than 27 points once. And in that game in Week 3 where they gave up 34, 7 of those points came directly off a pick 6 that bounced off a helmet (not the fault of the defense) and Brady also threw another pick in his own territory which lead to another score.

The Week 9 game. I have referenced this game a few times regarding the Giants defense because it was one of the few times this year they had their full defense on the field. And while they did hold the Pats to 20 points if you break down the game their effort isn't as impressive as the 20 points might indicate. New England piled up 438 yards in that game (to the Giants 361), and they also averaged more yards per play. However they made some mistakes as they committed 4 turnovers and missed a 27 yard FG. Despite all that they still had the lead with 10 seconds to go. The feared Giants pass rush also had only 2 sacks and just 3 QB hits on 51 dropbacks which is not very good. Now the Giants were without Bradshaw and Nicks in that game which was big. Not so much Bradshaw as the Giants ran for 111 yards anyway but Nicks will be a boost. Outside of the last two drives the Giants offense was brutal in that game. They punted every time they had the ball in the first half and before the last two drives their average drive went 22 yards! The Giants also got a TD off a Patriots turnover at their own 10 yard line. The bottomline here is the Pats were probably the better team in the first game despite the end result and if they can take care of the ball this time they should be in good shape though Nicks playing and the Giants pulling it out late need to be given a fair amount of weight. One reason I think they can do that is because Brady was so bad last week. He said himself that he sucked and I expect him to come up pretty big here and take care of the football.

Revenge. Probably a bad word because I don't believe in revenge in this game. The Pats aren't going to win because they lost the earlier game. But here's where it matters: Adjustments. It is very tough to beat this team twice in a row in the same year because they are perfectionists and Belichick is the master at making adjustments. When you think he is going to do one thing he will do something entirely different. He is very good at figuring teams out. Since Brady and Belichick teamed up they are 10-2 in the rematch after losing to the same team earlier in the year. I can't say the Giants are as good on the fly or at making adjustments. They have been known to shoot themselves in the foot on occasion and other times they look stubborn. Take the SF game for example, one of the reasons Eli was taking a beating was because the Giants receivers were running intermediate routes. And the Giants kept doing that over and over. Those plays needed time to set up and as a result the pass rush got there. They never adjusted and threw short or bubble screens. Eli also seemed to lock in on Nicks and Cruz and almost chucked two picks as a result.

I'm sensing something along the lines of 30-20 Pats.

Will have some props in the next day or two. The only ones I've bet so far is Giants TT Under 27 and the Welker and Hernandez OVER props.

One other interesting little bit about this game is that this is kind of a legacy game for Brady and Belichick. As I've said these guys are perfectionists and know the history of the game well. These guys want to be considered the best ever and if they lose two Super Bowls to the same team with a goofy looking QB I just don't see anyway they could ever be the best. They will no doubt be way up there but they won't be the best. A loss here will tarnish their records.

I agree with most of your thoughts here. The way to take away this D-line is to run the no huddle and I believe that what NE will do. Throw in some runs to keep them off balance and set up play action and it could be a long day for a secondary that I don't think is very good. Saw today where the Giants only got sacks on 2.8% of the plays they played against 2 TE sets and that's what NE does the majority of the time, could be a reason the rush wasn't very good in the Week 9 game.

GL.

Just 1 sack and 4 QB hits allowed on 71 dropbacks in the playoffs against two teams that both finished in the Top 10 in sack percentage.

I actually do agree with you there. However I think the matchups favor the Pats and the Pats also have the intangibles on their side as far as coaching and the situational aspect.

The fan in me is rooting for the Giants just because I believe that champions should be complete teams and not flashy teams that play with fire defensively like the Pats do.

Gl.

Another good point. The Pats are so fundamentally sound that they rarely if ever find themselves out of a game. They lost the Buffalo game on a late FG because of 4 turnovers (1 a fluke pick 6). They had 4 turnovers in the Giants loss and still had the lead with 10 seconds to go. Against Pittsburgh they were totally dominated but still found themselves with the ball late down only 6 points.

They are too well-coached, fundamentally sound, and disciplined to ever shoot themselves in the foot or make major mental errors to put themselves out of a game. Most other teams in those 3 losses would have been blown out with 4 turnovers etc, but NE had a chance to win them all.

What hernandez and welker prop did you take?