NFL Playoffs

Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

People are also overlooking the fact that Belichick has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game (deadly) and on top of it just played this team recently. The D will be ready for the Broncos offense, you can be sure of that. Yea, he had 2 weeks last year and lost to the Jets but that's the only similarity between these 2 games.

This is a gut check game for Brady and all the other Pats veterans and Coach Belichick...they have lost the last 3 home playoff games and now they are at home and all they hear is Tebow, Tebow, Tebow...Brady is nearing the end of his career and he knows his time is running out. He has all the weapons he needs, his line is finally healthy (Mankins/Vollmer finally back) and Hernandez is fully healthy unlike last years playoff game. Who is gonna stop their Tight Ends? DJ Williams is a run stopper not a cover guy. The Pats will own the middle of the field and I believe the run game will have success also..Ridley is a very talented back and Belly will finally unleash him this game IMO...if he gets going this will be a stomp. Throw in Play Actions, TE Screens, Denver's D will have no answer.

Denver has had an amazing season, and I like that kid Tebow but it's coming to a end tomorrow and it won't be pretty.

Pats will be out for blood in this contest and Denver will unfortunately have to bend over and take it.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

New England -13.5

I wasn't really interested in this game initially as I didn't want any part of Denver and laying two majors in a playoff game just isn't that appealing especially with a team with a less than stellar defense. However curiosity got the best of me and I gave this game a look and I think Denver is going to need a lot of magic this week to keep this one close. They were in a great spot last week against a highly overrated and banged up Steelers team. This week though they are off a very emotional and draining game playing on the road on a short week against a rested team. They are also getting probably the most talk of any two touchdown underdog in NFL history. The Patriots are once again not the #1 story in a NE/DEN game.

When you peel back the layers of this Broncos team you see a team that quite frankly isn't very good. They are -4.5 points per game in scoring differential, -36 yards per game, and a negative net yards per play team. On top of that they are 8-9 ATS this year. They finished 8-8 for a reason and they needed several miracles just to achieve that record. I think the offense played well above their heads last week and it is tough to see that unit doing so two weeks in a row. With Tebow as a QB this team had scored more than 20 points just three times prior to last week and in the next game they put up 17, 14, and 13. Even if you give them 17 this week can they hold the Patriots to less than 31?

The Broncos defense has received a lot of credit over the 2nd half of the season but if you break down the numbers they've actually been pretty bad against any team with even a reasonable offense. Since Tebow became the QB 5 of Denver's 12 games have come against offenses ranked 22nd or worse. Against anyone with an offense ranked in the Top 20 during that span the Broncos gave up the following point totals: 45, 23, 13, 24, 40, 41, 32 for an average of 31.1 points per game and the team they held to 13 was the Chargers back when they were playing with guys they just signed off the street on the offensive line. In those 7 games the Broncos gave up an average of 404 yards per game. The only game they gave up less than 350 was against the Chargers and in 4 of the 7 they surrendered at least 400 yards. Last week they gave up 400 yards at home against a team whose QB was playing on one leg and had a 2nd string RB. When these two teams met a few weeks ago the Pats put up 41 points and 451 yards of offense and that was on the road. New England also had 4 touchdown drives of at least 80 yards in that game. Perhaps most concerning is Denver has not been able to stop the run against these teams. During the 7 games they are giving up 140.6 yards per game rushing at 4.75 per clip.

As far as the spot goes I don't see any way it favors Denver. Short week off a very emotional game and now on the road is not an advantage. Tim Tebow as a QB is not an advantage. A bad defense going against Tom Brady in a night game and against a team that has been embarrassed in their previous two home playoff games is in no way an advantage. I have never heard of the two guys Denver will be starting at safety and going against these TE's is not an advantage. Losing Eric Decker is not an advantage. Belichick lives off taking away his opponents best player, I strongly believe he will shut down Thomas and make Eddie Royal and Matt Willis beat him. If Denver gets down they will probably have to abandon the run. There's always a threat of a backdoor but this Denver offense is not threatening and we've seen the Pats keep their foot on the gas numerous times throughout the years. New England also has a nice group of RB's and if they try to run out the clock they may gain some nice yards and keep the ball against a Broncos run defense that has not been good.

Smells like 38-7.

I'll try to have writeups on the Sunday games before they kick.

GL.

Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

People are also overlooking the fact that Belichick has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game (deadly) and on top of it just played this team recently. The D will be ready for the Broncos offense, you can be sure of that. Yea, he had 2 weeks last year and lost to the Jets but that's the only similarity between these 2 games.

This is a gut check game for Brady and all the other Pats veterans and Coach Belichick...they have lost the last 3 home playoff games and now they are at home and all they hear is Tebow, Tebow, Tebow...Brady is nearing the end of his career and he knows his time is running out. He has all the weapons he needs, his line is finally healthy (Mankins/Vollmer finally back) and Hernandez is fully healthy unlike last years playoff game. Who is gonna stop their Tight Ends? DJ Williams is a run stopper not a cover guy. The Pats will own the middle of the field and I believe the run game will have success also..Ridley is a very talented back and Belly will finally unleash him this game IMO...if he gets going this will be a stomp. Throw in Play Actions, TE Screens, Denver's D will have no answer.

Denver has had an amazing season, and I like that kid Tebow but it's coming to a end tomorrow and it won't be pretty.

Pats will be out for blood in this contest and Denver will unfortunately have to bend over and take it.

Quote Originally Posted by beamjim:

Andy, appreciate your time spent on always. I am with Glyde have flipped back and forth on some of these games.

I remember why I don't like this forum come playoff time, as you have the dedicated fans come out and thump their chest about their team. If you happen to like the other side, you are now an idiot. 

With respect to the Saints/Niners game, I like NO to win, but wouldn't lay more than three with them. One factor that no one seems to talk about is playoff experience. I think this will help the Saints in a close one. I don' worry about experience so much on the defensive side of the ball with SF, as their talent should keep them in the game. If the Saints are up 3 late and Smith has one last drive to win the game, this is where I see a mistake being made and the the NO secondary, taking advantage of it.

As for the Pats game, I have been back and forth on this one. I have such a hard time laying two TD's with the Patriot D, yet one thing that does not scare me in this game is a back door cover by the Bronco's. If the Pats get up early, they won't take the foot off the pedal and will set up for a terrific second half bet. I think Denver needs a big game from McGahee, to cover this spread. If they can't run the ball, Brady will have some fun at their expense.

 

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I hit New Orleans -3 -115 again. Big play for me here. I just think these two teams are on different levels. Nice season by SF but I don't believe they are as good as most people think and NO is built to win right now. Could be dead wrong though and the tough defense may shut em down, won't be the first or the last.

GL today everyone.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Wow SF continues to find ways to win. If you told me before the game the Saints would have 5 turnovers and Alex smith would throw for 300 with 3 TD and have 2 GW drives I wouldn't have believed it. Pretty resilient bunch those 9ers. Some awful coaching on both sides though.

Did anyone else have some crazy flkashbacks to when Steve Young hit TO very late against GB for the same TD where he took a huge hit and came up in tears?

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

Andy are you on Balt minus the pts?

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Yes, I just rolled out of bed. Managed to grab a -7 (-120). I'll see if I can throw together a writeup.

Quote Originally Posted by Flutiemaniac341:

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

GL Andy.  Someone I trust gave me Over 35 in Houston game so I'm just sticking with that.  Hit both games yesterday(thanks for NE, you wound up swaying me the right way), so if this over hits I'm in good shape. 

Rooting balt in a rout for 2 reasons.  One, a couple of my buddies and you have Balt so I'm backing you guys.  Second, a great Balt showing might shade that NE-Balt game down to -4,5 next week rather than 6 or 7 and the sedond the line comes out, I'm pounding the Pats.  So obviously would like to see -4.5, rather than 7 if Balt struggles to beat Houston.

GL today.  I'll pop back in later with thoughts on GB.  Looking like I might be on them, OR just sit back and root the Giants with my family if the Balt over cashes(will be up nice from Bama, SF, NE, and a few small props I cashed in on). 

Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:

glyde what did you end up doing with your Houston to win AFC future?

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Baltimore +7.5 (-114) next week. Have all week to look at this and play with the line. Think this line will only do down.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Baltimore +7.5 (-114) next week. Have all week to look at this and play with the line. Think this line will only do down.