Posted:
#1
No sugarcoating the fact I was absolutely terrible this year. I thought it was going to be a big year, went 10-4 in preseason and 6-3 on win totals but my god was I bad in the regular season, not just my first losing NFL season posting on this website but I was HAMMERED. I'll have to go add it up but guess I was at least 20 games under on posted plays. I should probably be staying away but it's the playoffs so what the hell. As I said down the stretch: I encourage fading. I'm free money!
Denver +9 (-115)
I think we have a classic case of “Play on” vs “Play Against” elements here. Most pundits and casual fans will look at this game after seeing the past couple of weeks and will wonder how the hell do the Broncos have a chance. I think those people are missing the other side of the equation and the fact that the Steelers stink.
I realize the Steelers have all the numbers and experience but I am not impressed with this team one bit. They were money burners this season as they were overrated from Week 1. On the road they were absolutely terrible going 2-6 ATS and winning one road game all year but more than 7 points and that was by 12 against a Zona team that started 1-6. Pittsburgh has averaged 15.6 points on the road this year and scored more than 13 points just three times in eight road games. Ben has also been terrible on the road going for 7.46 YPA, 7 TD, 10 INT with a 77.6 QB rating, he’s also been dumped 25 times on the road. When you compare those numbers to Tebow at 6.40 YPA, 12 TD, 6 INT and a 72.9 QB rating you can see in this particular setting there isn’t a huge difference. I don’t make too much of Mendenhall being out but it probably will have an effect playing an unproven backup. Pittsburgh’s o-line is once again very shaky and in one of the loudest stadiums in the league I think they could be a liability especially with a banged up Roethlisberger who is basically playing on one leg. This should help mitigate Pittsburgh’s vertical passing game which is the only thing they do well offensively.
The numbers will show that Pittsburgh still has a top notch defense but I beg to differ. If you dig deeper you will see this unit is nowhere near as good as they have traditionally been especially upfront. Pittsburgh gave up 4.0 yards per rush this year which is unheard of for them. They were 19th in 3rd down defense, 28th in negative pass plays, and 19th in the defensive hog index after finishing 1st last season. They also fell from 1st to 17th in sacks. You can argue injuries played a part but they will play a part here too. Woodley has played about 15 snaps in the past 7 weeks and is nowhere near 100% with a bad hammy. The thin air and low oxygen
will not be good for him here. Clark is also out and it will be a big loss, he has played 99% of the defensive snaps this year and when Polamalu is crowding the line I expect Denver to take some shots. I also think Denver can wear down this defensive front and the thin air may actually play a role. Most of these guys up front are in their 30’s and if the Broncos pound away they could run out of gas.
Situationally it is a nice spot for Denver. No one thinks they have a chance. This team was very good as a dog. The last two weeks they were favored and the pressure was on but this is a completely different situation. This is very similar to the Saints/Seahawks game last year where a very overrated favorite came in and was expected to trounce a bad team. However the Saints were exposed and the Seahawks played carefree and with nothing to lose. Brian Dawkins reportedly gave this team a rousing speech on Monday. I saw the presser today and Tebow was exuding energy. John Elway on how the Broncos played tight the last two weeks with so much on the
line: “That’s human nature, especially when you’re young, to become more cautious.” Not anywhere close to the same situation this time. Elway on Tebow: “He’s obviously upset with last week. He’s already got an edge to him, so he’s ready to go. I like seeing the edge. Oh, yeah. I actually love it. I have full confidence he’ll bounce back and have a good week.” This is the NFL where anybody can beat anybody. Just when a team looks like they have no chance they usually come motivated and play with nothing to lose and get overlooked by the favorite. This Pittsburgh team is garbage. If they survive this week they will get slaughtered by the Ravens or Patriots next week.
I like the card a fair bit. Will post other plays when I find time to throw down some thoughts.
GL.
Denver +9 (-115)
I think we have a classic case of “Play on” vs “Play Against” elements here. Most pundits and casual fans will look at this game after seeing the past couple of weeks and will wonder how the hell do the Broncos have a chance. I think those people are missing the other side of the equation and the fact that the Steelers stink.
I realize the Steelers have all the numbers and experience but I am not impressed with this team one bit. They were money burners this season as they were overrated from Week 1. On the road they were absolutely terrible going 2-6 ATS and winning one road game all year but more than 7 points and that was by 12 against a Zona team that started 1-6. Pittsburgh has averaged 15.6 points on the road this year and scored more than 13 points just three times in eight road games. Ben has also been terrible on the road going for 7.46 YPA, 7 TD, 10 INT with a 77.6 QB rating, he’s also been dumped 25 times on the road. When you compare those numbers to Tebow at 6.40 YPA, 12 TD, 6 INT and a 72.9 QB rating you can see in this particular setting there isn’t a huge difference. I don’t make too much of Mendenhall being out but it probably will have an effect playing an unproven backup. Pittsburgh’s o-line is once again very shaky and in one of the loudest stadiums in the league I think they could be a liability especially with a banged up Roethlisberger who is basically playing on one leg. This should help mitigate Pittsburgh’s vertical passing game which is the only thing they do well offensively.
The numbers will show that Pittsburgh still has a top notch defense but I beg to differ. If you dig deeper you will see this unit is nowhere near as good as they have traditionally been especially upfront. Pittsburgh gave up 4.0 yards per rush this year which is unheard of for them. They were 19th in 3rd down defense, 28th in negative pass plays, and 19th in the defensive hog index after finishing 1st last season. They also fell from 1st to 17th in sacks. You can argue injuries played a part but they will play a part here too. Woodley has played about 15 snaps in the past 7 weeks and is nowhere near 100% with a bad hammy. The thin air and low oxygen
will not be good for him here. Clark is also out and it will be a big loss, he has played 99% of the defensive snaps this year and when Polamalu is crowding the line I expect Denver to take some shots. I also think Denver can wear down this defensive front and the thin air may actually play a role. Most of these guys up front are in their 30’s and if the Broncos pound away they could run out of gas.
Situationally it is a nice spot for Denver. No one thinks they have a chance. This team was very good as a dog. The last two weeks they were favored and the pressure was on but this is a completely different situation. This is very similar to the Saints/Seahawks game last year where a very overrated favorite came in and was expected to trounce a bad team. However the Saints were exposed and the Seahawks played carefree and with nothing to lose. Brian Dawkins reportedly gave this team a rousing speech on Monday. I saw the presser today and Tebow was exuding energy. John Elway on how the Broncos played tight the last two weeks with so much on the
line: “That’s human nature, especially when you’re young, to become more cautious.” Not anywhere close to the same situation this time. Elway on Tebow: “He’s obviously upset with last week. He’s already got an edge to him, so he’s ready to go. I like seeing the edge. Oh, yeah. I actually love it. I have full confidence he’ll bounce back and have a good week.” This is the NFL where anybody can beat anybody. Just when a team looks like they have no chance they usually come motivated and play with nothing to lose and get overlooked by the favorite. This Pittsburgh team is garbage. If they survive this week they will get slaughtered by the Ravens or Patriots next week.
I like the card a fair bit. Will post other plays when I find time to throw down some thoughts.
GL.
0
Many ppl who are on Denver took Pitt vs SF a few weeks ago so they're upset. Final score 28-7
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