NFL Playoffs

My total "side bet" is divided up into New England -3 +110 (50%), New England -2.5 -112 (25%) and Tom Brady MVP +130 (25%).


The juice has changed on some of these so I'll just post the actual props:

Wes Welker OVER 6.5 receptions and OVER 78.5 receiving yards.

Aaron Hernandez OVER 5.5 receptions and OVER 68.5 receiving yards.

My thinking on both of these is that New England will be running the no huddle quite a bit and hitting the short passes and slants. Both these guys are very quick and shifty out of their breaks and I don't think the Giants have anyone who can cover either of them. Hernandez has been used a lot lately and while Welker has been somewhat quiet it is important to remember he has been primarily covered by Champ Bailey and LaDarius Webb in the two playoff games and those guys are studs.


Rob Gronkowski OVER 9.5 yards on his 1st reception.

I think the Pats will try to get Gronk involved very early down the field to prove that he can actually get down the field and be a factor. Kind of a statement bet here, you know the Pats will try to make a statement that Gronk will at least appear to be able to play well. I think they will do this to try and open up the field later on. The ankle will also be at it's best early in the game after he takes the shots before kickoff.


Mario Manningham OVER 3 receptions

Belichick will try to take Cruz or Nicks out of the game. I haven't figured out which one and I don't think anyone knows. But Manningham should see single coverage all game and should get his fair share of looks with the focus on Cruz and Nicks.


Eli Manning OVER 38.5 pass attempts

Since the start of October the Giants have played in 12 games that they did not win by 10 points or more and in 10 of them Eli has gone over this number in attempts. New England has only lost 16 games by more than 10 points in the Belichick and Brady era and none this year so it is unlikely they lose by double digits in this one.


NY Giants Team Total UNDER 27

I explained this one earlier.


New England -7.5 +205

I think NE wins by double digits.


National Anthem OVER 94 seconds

I know this is kind of a crazy bet but I was listening to the radio the other day and they were talking about Clarkson's new record out now and how she is doing a nationwide tour. With all this going on there is no better time to sell yourself in front of what will most likely be the biggest audience in TV history. I know all her other performances have been 93 or 94 seconds but I have a feeling he milks this one and gets people talking a little bit.


That's all for me. GL.

^^^^^^Should obviously say: she milks this one and gets people talking a little bit.


Did a little digging on the Giants pass rush and how much of an alleged advantage they have over the Pats no name rush. The Giants sack percentage this year is 7.51%. New England is 6.58%. Less than a 1% difference. Which means the Giants get 1 more sack on over 100 more dropbacks, hardly a huge difference.

But the Giants D-line has got healthy and better in the playoffs? Stats say otherwise. The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is exactly the same as during the regular season. The % of time they hit the QB on a dropback is also exactly the same in the playoffs and regular season.

The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is 7.5% and their hit percentage is 14%. In the playoffs New England's sack percentage is 11.4% and their hit percentage is 21.4%. Perception vs reality here? The Giants have all the big talkers and sexy players up front, is that making them look better than the Pats group of no-namers?

How do you propose that Belichick will take both Cruz and Nicks out of the game?  I think Manningham could catch the ball three or more times but to say the Pats will be able to take the Giants top two Wr out of the game is suspect.

As a Giants fan, I am also afraid of the hurry-up offense. I would be very surprised if the Pats didn't go like Oregon! These guys are not in shape and there will be very little pass rush if the Pats go hurry-up. Not  just no-huddle, but hurry-up. Shhh! Don't tell them!

I never said that. I said he will try to take Cruz or Nicks out of the game or at least minimize one of them. Why? Because that is the Belichick way. He has always attacked the opposing teams best playmaker hard and let someone else beat them. Whichever one of these guys he has deemed the most important player he will attack aggressively, that is something he has always done. Just look at the Ravens game where Ray Rice was their most important weapon and he was a non factor. 67 yards on 21 carries and he caught 1 pass after catching 70+ in the regular season. I can't see Belichick going after Manningham but I'd bet my left nut he goes after either Cruz or Nicks, I just don't know which one. It may not be entirely successful but the Pats will most definitely try.

 

Another game most of the so called smart guys on Pats, most of the not so smart on G-men.  Nots so smart win.

Pats 

I like where you're going there, I will throw a few bucks on that myself. It's not like the Pats haven't played inexperienced players in big games before. They had Troy Brown back there one year when they won the Super Bowl and in the Super Bowl against Philly they started two rookie corners.

thanks for the insights re sack percentages.

just a question to consider:

since the giants played an extra playoff game (3 - includes wild card game), they obviously had more plays than the pats (at two playoff games).  is it not more likely that the giant percentage of sacks/hits would be less over a greater number of plays than the pats percentage over less number of plays?

this, i think, is akin to higher batting averages over 100 at bats, then batting averages falling when having a greater number of bats at 300 or more . . .

just a  thought.

great stuff! I had this feeling for 2 weeks and you just validated it and justified it-I have done well all postseason playing against the consensus-and I got more intrigued with Belichick's attitude...the Giants definitely feel more pressure and that does matter in this game-we're all human. Pats D doesn't give up major points either the last 8 weeks-just yards-Red Zone is what counts.

I have a chance to win a Playoff Pool for making ahead of the curve bets like Denver vs. Pitt,Giants vs GB, SF vs NO and this game fits right in-way too many people on NYG-thanks for the help!

 

NE-2.5 all day

One more thing-the BEST point, Giants backers is you beat this team at the very end, barely in a game where they had 4 Turnovers-NE had too many last week-you have to assume they will not turn it over today as they have emphasized and that should get them over the hump...

ok then i read it wrong but how do you propose he takes them out of the game?  Does he double Cruz?  Does he cover Nicks?  I was wondering how you thought he might do it.  I know you aren't the Pats coach and.  Pick your poison right?  I wasn't disagreeing I just think Bill won't be able to close out either of these wideouts.  I think like I said before Manningham has a good shot at catching 3 or more passes but i could easily see guys like Welker and Cruz catching ten plus passes.  Good luck man.

What up, Andy?

Last night I was in my local mall parking lot waiting for my stepdaughter and her friends(figured I chill in lot with radio bumping and do last minute research on my phone rather than drive home, hang out a half hour, and then drive back).

Anyway I'm cocking around in my car passing time, I found this thread, started from the beginning, and read the entire thing.  Fucking awesome!  Fantastic info from day 1 of the playoffs!  Wish I could have contributed more, but work blocks Covers again, and I've been so busy lately after work and the weekends.  Next year I vow to bring it like past years.  Your threads are KEY to my weekly NFL capping and I want to go back to GIVING as much as I TAKE from them.

Anyway, I'm rolling with the G Men.  I know a lot of people are a bit worried at the line, and there's so much Giant love it is scary, but I thought the line was spot on.  You have to consider early prop bets, so -3 was spot on.  Personally, I think PK was the true line, or even Giants -1 or 2, but Pats -3 is where it should be. 

Hit the Giants for a unit at +3.5 when it opened.  Added another couple units at +3 throughout the last couple weeks.  Someone who is a master of totals(Sharp) leans under so I tailed him with a Giants +10 UNDER 63 teaser.  Also just threw in Giants -10.5 in the alternate line(around +550 or so, I believe). 

I'm not big on props, but did a few.  A few are mine, and a few I'm tailing Sharp as he was on the same page as me.

Rolle over 6 tackles.  Philips over 4.5 tackles.  NE has that short passing attack and I believe the safetys are both gonna heap up tackles. 

Over 3.5 FGs.  Hoping they can hit a few of those early in the game when both teams are a bit conserative and feeling each other out.

Under in receptions and yards for Gronk(5.5 and 77).  In all my years of watching sports, I've never seen anyone come back from that kind of injury so fast(with the exception of Big Ben but he is a different breed and was extremely hobbled).  Taking a shot he gives it a go,  but winds up ineffective. 

First TD scored went with Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Travis Beckum.

Total KO returns UNDER 6.5.  Love this one(tailing Sharp here).  This is something I never would have thought of, but his writeup made perfect sense(dome, two strong legs, etc). 

If Gronk is a non factor like I think he is gonna be, I think the Giants focus on Hernandez leaving Welker to roam around underneath so OVER 7 receptions and OVER 80.5 yards.

Over 12 yards for Beckum.  He has become a target for Eli the last few games.  I think I quick hit over the middle wins this prop.

Good luck to all and I hope everyone finds a way to finish the season on a strong note!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent job capping Kelly Clarkson, by the way.

I threw 50 bucks on it to tail you.