NFL Playoffs

Good work andy      

Congrats I wish I had seen this post- congrats and great to see you back on track

Great job this week buddy...I had a great 3-1 week with losing Falcons. I thought that box team would step up and win a big game and I was wrong. They had the opportunity to go up 9-0 with their D playing amazing but pissed it all away and it all starts with that loser Mike Smith.

I won it all back and more with the Broncs ML though.

Tebow

Good to see you get back on track though, what do you think about the other 3 games? Already saw you on Saints...super tough game and I can make a case for either team. But I really don't know what team can stop Brees and all his weapons right now.

Good to hear you had a great weekend buddy.

I haven't looked at the other games too much yet other than the Saints but I will be on the Ravens in some capacity. I know I said anyone can beat anyone in the NFL in that Broncos writeup but I would be completely shocked if Houston won next week. Going in there against a rested Ravens team with a rookie 3rd string QB is a recipe for disaster IMO. I held my breath everytime Yates threw ball against the Bengals. The fact is he sucks big time and is going against an elite defense against a team that hasn't played a home playoff game in a long time. Ravens can shutdown the run and if they do that or get up by 10 points and Yates has to pass I think it is a huge disaster waiting to happen.

Baltimore killed them there earlier in the year and that was with Schaub starting and Baltimore losing the turnover battle by 2. I'll have to see what the Ravens and pundits are saying though. Baltimore has a tendency to take their foot off the pedal against weaker teams and if everyone is penciling them and the Pats in for the AFC championship it could be a minor problem laying over a TD but I'm struggling to see how the Texans score. Yates could turn it over a bunch and Ravens may have short fields all day. Should be a great game to tease though, Houston ain't winning.

Mac - great work buddy.  I share the same thoughts as you on the Ravens next weekend

Great points, Ravens is my strongest lean for next week, I love the fact I can get it at -7...I really don't know what's gonna happen to Yates when Balty is up by 2 scores and he has to throw....I mean the only way I don't see Balty covering is if they're up big and get super conservative like they usually do...not sure what to make of the Pats spread...I mean I think they roll...Belichick has already seen Tebow and after adjusting easily stopped their run game after getting abused in the 1st Q. But if Tebow makes the tough throws like he did today it could be a game.

Packers/Gmen could be a tough one also...I thought this Giants team was a big fraud but they have won 3 straight big games. I don't see how they stop Rodgers and GB's D should step up after getting shit on by everyone. They may give up a ton of yards but they get tons of turnovers which is a bad sign for Eli and the Giants OF.

Nice job andarmac99 !

It's best to cap the game on the field not just the public wave.

Last year I hammered the biggest public play of the year most likely by far on the Ravens -3 over the Kansas City Cheifs in Round 1 of the AFC 1st Round and it was one of the easiest cashes I have ever had in my life.

I'm not gonna be on the Saints -3.5 and probably won't be on the Niners +3.5 but just because it's public don't let that dictate your decision that much.

Fuck I hate to say it being a huge Niners fan but as badly as I want my boyz to win the more I think about this game the more and more this game reminds me of the Packers at Bears last year.

Brees isn't going to go up and down the field at will.  In fact he'll be slowed down and have to punt on many drives.  However, Brees will probably put up around 24 points.  I see the Niners doing okay.  Smith will get some drives and settle for FGs.  But, I think the Saints will be up around 7-10 the whole game and the Niners will have a shot for the backdoor.

Hope I'm wrong.  San Fran is not a fraud, they are a very good team but this matchup is going to be very tough for them.

BTW - congrats on the solid week mac 

Nice week, Andy.  Great call on Denver.

expect you to be on SF

Nah I hit New Orleans -3 at the open. Think I posted it on the last page.

I don't get the San Fran love at all. I said halfway through the season that they are the "magic carpet ride" team this year. Every year there is a team that catches lightning in a bottle and plays above their rating and heads every week. These teams get exposed in the playoffs. Atlanta was that team last year and without question SF is that team this year. They caught all the breaks and capatilized and hats off to them for doing so but I believe they are overrated.

I still do believe defense will ultimately win out in the playoffs but the problem with SF is that their offense stinks. It's a simpleton view to look at the QB's but Alex Smith vs Drew Brees right now is a complete mismatch. Smith is a nice game manager but I wouldn't trust this guy trying to come from behind in a playoff game. This is a bad matchup for him too contrary to popular belief. The Saints will blitz the shit out of him on 3rd down. The Saints have a great 3rd down defense and San Fran is horrible at converting 3rd downs and and extending drives at just 29%, the only team worse was the Rams. They are also horrible in the redzone ranking 30th, the only teams worse being the Rams and Chiefs. This team isn't suddenly going to turn it on in the playoffs in those areas. San Fran negative net yards per play. A shocking stat from a 13-3 team and to me that is a huge red flag. For all the pub the Niners run game gets they rank 19th in yards per carry, a signal that their offensive line may not be that good. What confirms it to me is that they are 27th in the NFL in allowing sacks per pass attempt which is a little surprising considering Alex Smith has some mobility. A bad offensive line and a swarming defense like Gregg Williams will bring could spell trouble.

I don't expect the Saints to come out and drop 40 but they will score here. Their offense is playing at a level we have never seen. Brees is unstoppable, they have a deep running game, and they have weapons all over every inch of the field. They have Sproles and Thomas catching passes out of the backfield, they've got Meachem and Henderson stretching defenses deep and they got the middle of the field and jumpballs in the endzone covered with Graham and Colston. I think Lance Moore may come back this week and he's huge on 3rd down. I don't really care how good the Niners run defense is here the Saints will only run to set up and the pass and I think they will throw screens and dumpoffs to Sproles and Thomas which are virtual runs but it will get them in space away from the middle of this defense. Sproles gets a lot of the hype but to me Thomas is such a key piece, I literally fell in love with the guy a couple years ago, he does everything so well. San Fran has a pretty good front 7 but Brees gets the ball out fast that it is so hard to get to him. Since the Rams game which the Saints called a major wakeup call and they gave up 6 sacks they completely changed their protections and the offensive line has dominated. I forget the number of attempts but in the 9 games since and over all those pass attempts Brees has had he's only been sacked 7 times total. I believe the sack percentage was 1.8% or 1.9% it was crazy.

A lot of people will look at the Rams and Bucs games and say the Saints stink on the road. But those games were probably a benefit to the Saints. Payton and Brees have said the Rams game was a blessing and a major wakeup call that they have prepare for every game like it is their last. Since they they have crushed everyone going 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS. The fact they face a great defense this week will probably have these guys working overtime to find a way to stop them.

As far as the intangibles go the Saints are built to win right now. They are a veteran team with tons of playoff experience and have played in countless big games. San Fran has not taken their lumps in the playoffs like most teams do before they win big games. San Francisco has come off the scrap heap and have zero playoff experience. I'm not sure if they are ready for this setting. Sneaking up on everyone in the regular season is one thing. Knocking off a Super Bowl contender in your first ever playoff game is something entirely different.

San Fran lived off turnovers this year. While some of it is because of a good defense the fact is having a crazy number like +28 has a high degree of variance (basically randomness). There is no guarantee something like that carries over to the playoffs either. Since 1992 there have been 18 teams that tied or led the league in turnover margin and 11 (61%) have lost their first playoff game. Only 5 of them have ever even made their conference championship game. The Patriots led the league in turnover margin last year but didn't get any in their playoff game and as a result never sniffed a cover in a SU loss. Getting boatloads of turnovers tends to mask flaws but those flaws usually get exposed come playoff time. The fact San Fran is +31 in turnovers over the Saints and these teams finished with the Saints records tells me a lot.

Again, hats off to San Fran for capitalizing on their breaks but I really don't see them beating a team like New Orleans that is ahead of the curve as far as coaching and offense goes, is built to win right now, and looks to be on a mission. The game won't be a blowout but I think the Saints win by at least 7. Could be wrong though, I don't remember the last winning week I had in the NFL prior to last year.

^^^^^The fact they face a great defense this week will probably have these guys working overtime to find a way to score on them.

^^^^ The fact San Fran is +31 in turnovers over the Saints and these teams finished with the same records tells me a lot.

Few more mistakes in there, gotta start proofreading those big ass spews.

Nice writeup andarmac99--- i will say on the TO thing, Brees should have been picked several times on Saturday which would have given the Lions a chance at the straight up upset.  think the Niners catch those balls.

the only other thing about the Niners is the entire world doesn't think they can win this game---every espn analyst has this pegged as the team that "shits the bed" in the divisional round (except bill simmons)

I think the Brees thing is also a benefit. The Saints didn't play that well last week and caught several breaks with dropped picks and that fumble return that was whistled dead. Brees did not look too happy in the post game interview. This guy is all business this season he should be focused to cut out mistakes this time around.

I'm not sure I agree with the whole world being against SF. There are more people on SF on this board than NO early and I just saw PTI where a clown like Micheal Wilbon picked SF to beat NO.

GL kroch.

I don't agree.  There's a decent amount of people that think the Niners win.  The Niners have the outdoor elements and great D, the Broncos have god, and the Giants have the '07 magic, but the Texans have NO CHANCE

I didn't unload on this game or anything (yet) but to me San Francisco beating New Orleans would be a bigger upset than Denver beating Pittsburgh.

I'm sure.  But Niners actually have a pass rush and Willis to stop those draws up the middle that really is one of the core parts of Saints offense that no one mentions. 

My worry about Saints is really this team has no pass rush.  They also don't have the Sharper type season from 2 years back and are near the league lows in picks.  Doesn't it seem that Alex Smith can actually have a decent day out of this (and don't laugh at me!)?  The Rush D does appear average--and on the other side, think Sproles can have a good day against this defense.

The Niners do have a pass rush but the Saints offensive line is dominating right now. They have manhandled teams at the line of scrimmage in the past two months and that includes games against the Giants, Vikings, and twice against the Lions and those teams all have excellent defensive fronts. San Fran might have to try to blitz to get pressure and IMO that will not work at all because the Saints have too many weapons. San Fran will not be able to afford to commit extra guys to the line of scrimmage. I like this game a lot, satisfied with what I have now but will look to add more before gametime.

Love the Ravens this week. Thought it might be risky laying points with them because of how they tend to let up but they have worked hard for a home playoff game and I'd be shocked if they played lackadaisical in a playoff game in front of this crowd. This team knows their time is now. Houston has been a nice story but with a rookie 3rd string QB on the road who teams now have some film on against this defense I think it is a total mismatch. I think this game will be a blowout.

Love the Ravens as well.  After struggling through the first half, they made some adjustments at halftime of the last game with Houston and outgained them 269 to 151 in the 2nd half while outscoring them 13 to 0 in the fourth quarter.  It should be more of the same this weekend with, as you said, some film for Baltimore to study.  I'm just trying to figure out if I should buy the hook now.