NFL picks and why - week 3

Record stands at 1-0.   Let’s look at some numbers:

        Sd         15   4   21  14  13  11

-1     Minn    8    32  25   15  21  21

Minn opens up as a 1 pt fav – it jumped up to 2.5 but currently it’s 1.    Minn. Is better off. Rushing rank at 8 vice 15 for sd.    Sd is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, def. passing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength.    On paper sandiego looks like the pick.   However, historically when you have an opening line of -1 for the home team with this scenario – the game is often very tight but the home team usally comes out on top.   I’m taking minn on the m/line – 117. 

My plays for week 3:    1. Minn m/l    2.    Stlouis +1    3.   Houston  -6.5     4.    Over Houston 40.5    5.  Ny jets -1.5    6.   Ne – 15.5    7.   Ne/Jax over 49   8.   Cincy/Balt over 45   9.    Chic/Sea under 43.5   10. Buff/Mia under 41.5   10 .   3 team Teaser – Over clev/oak 37.5 – Dallas +5  -  Over atl/dallas 37.5

Good luck all.

Mac, Got, Van, Bamers – Back at ya

Bshoe – just for the record 10-3-2 – thanks

Relax – I just follow the numbers and patterns

Brick – when you look at the ranks of these teams along with the opening line – your looking to find similar scenarios and then let history dictate your future plays – that’s what I’m trying to do.

Blue – back at ya

Fmoe – Thanks.   The plays that I post have support for them so I believe they can all win/cover.   That being said – I should flat bet but like many of us I will go heavy on some and less on others - sometimes it's based on how much I have in my account or previous games played. 

We went 6-5 yesterday – let’s see if we can get it tonite.   Let’s look at some numbers:

        KC     12    25    8   23    9    7

6.5   GB    9     21    31   12   1   19

GB opens up as a 6.5 fav – currently around 5.5.    Kc is better in two categories – Def. rushing and schedule strength 7 vice 19.  Historically when you have an opening line of 6.5 and similar types of rankings – the home team usually scores lots of points and covers by a bunch.  I’m taking GB – 5.5 and over on the Team total of  27.5 . 

Good luck all

thanks rookie - back at ya

barney - i'm not sure either - I find if I go with the numbers  - I do better than letting the line movement drive me to a decision - back at ya

mint - back at ya