NFL Divisional Round Initial Leans and Thoughts...

Somebody has the feels about my Bengals and Niners picks...

BB - this is the second time in this thread you are drawing very stretched comparisons.  

They (TN) also beat the Niners without Henry, the very team (SF) Vanz is backing to not only beat one of the greatest QBs of all time on his home turf but also the SB. Yet they can’t beat the Bungles. Go figure.

So TN beat the Niners, who lost to the Bengals, and therefore they dont have a chance in GB???  Really?

Lets just say this has zero to do with the way I come up who I will bet, and I will leave it at that.  

I am going to say something that will blow your mind and Im not sure you will understand:  I dont think SF will win the SB, but I sure as hell love my future bet.  I also think they have around a 50% chance of winning against the Packers, but I sure as hell love +220.

GL

All of these are minor ingredients in a very large soup.

Actually, this sounds like it might have to happen.  

Edit...  Just placed:  1k to win 40,240.  Lets go. (this is going to get a lot of comments about my rule of parlays.... )

^This 

So youre telling me the TRAIN convinced you to bet a parlay!? If so, this might be the pinnacle of my gambling career!!

I will probably have them in a round robin of 3 teamers (in addition to the 4 teamer) as well as an 8 teamer and 7 yeam RR with all the unders.....

Van

Way to much emphasis on the regular season ( Not the OP )  by many of the posters in this thread ...Many of these teams are night and different now then they were even 5 weeks ago ...

Just my opinion,  but I almost completely  throw out the regular season when handicapping the post season  

always enjoy your write-ups @vanzack 

I do think at least 1 road dog wins SU and maybe the rest cover the spread but 3+ SU/ML road dog wins seems like a tall hill to climb. Rams/Bills seem most likely of the group IMO.

BOL 

I get your point, Vanz. SOS is one tool cappers use, but not always the best because each game is its own entity. However, I do see the Titans and Niners being mirror image teams. Both old school, both physical, both rely on the run, both with good coaches, booth with playoff experience and heartache, both with stud receivers in Debo and Brown, both with QBs who can lose you the game on a bad day. That, more than anything else, is the reason I don’t understand why you can back the Niners. Who are in a worse spot, on the road against Rodgers, and not the Titans who are in an ostensibly better spot. 

@begginerboy

 I would just say this....  I try not to make the correlations you are making.  In fact - I do it on purpose.

The A beat B, and B beat C, so A beats C stuff doesnt work - for me.  Not saying it doesnt for others - just not for me.

There are huge differences between the Titans and 49ers.  At the same time, I also understand your point of drawing a comparison between the style of play and some characteristics between TN and SF.  But I also see a similarity in style of play and characteristics between say Baylor and the 49ers.  Extreme example, but the point I am trying to make is that just because they are similar, doesnt mean the matchup is good, or the talent is the same, or the schedule, or the spot.

Lets agree on one thing....  No results bias here.  You have yours, I have mine - but at the end of these games regardless of who wins in these 2 games - that is not the Judge and Jury on the concept.

@TRAIN69

I looked back.  3rd parlay in last 6 months for me.  The UDMLP is tee'd up and ready for a DeChambeau smash.

BTW...  If you love the art of a writeup....  Go read Andarmac's thread.

Great reading regardless if you agree or not.

Agree with all your picks except SF.

Rodgers and the packers have been eliminated by SF the last 3 times they’ve met in the playoffs. Huge revenge motivation for Pack (I see it having a lot of significance since SF was Rodgers’ childhood team). Also compound the cold weather for a Cali team. Packers held, SF, Rams and Seahawks to about 75 rushing yards this year; their rush D is not completely horrid. Knowing JimmyG is their weakness, I see them stacking the box and making him beat them… dont like odds of him out-dueling Rodgers, at home, with 3 consecutive SF eliminations on his mind. 

I understand - and this is a very popular sentiment here.

Hard to argue against Rodgers.

GL

Bosa and Warner both practicing today which means they will both play.

Line down a tick on the news.

GL

@Revolution_

Jimmy G. 4-1 playoff record (24-8 overall), playoff loss was the SB in first year as a starter. Rodgers 11-9 playoff record...

SF isn't Miami regarding the cold. Jimmy G was a Patriot for a while, I don't think it's a huge issue.

In last 3 games GB defense hasn't stopped the Browns (4 turnovers and couldn't cover), Ravens or Lions...

SF infinitely more capable then the 3 previous teams of going off... I know, GB is getting guys back on D that haven't played in a long time.

Beginnerboy: Always with the hard sell on SF, now they're in great spot to keep their playoff record perfect vs. GB and you bail on them. Worst spot? Pressure is on GB not SF, just like last week v. Dallas. 

SF will score 28 pts minimum, maybe GB can pull this off but SF is strong everywhere and look like they're coming together nicely.

Lets say home field is worth 2 pts, a bye should be 2 pts. GB is 1.5 better than SF at -5.5. OK

Line should be 7 or 7.5 considering Rodgers record at home, the cold, etc. vs. SF and Jimmy G.

GL

Great write ups. Im leaning Rams and Buffy so far. Like always, waiting till game day and game time. (never know with these covid surprises) 

Im on the stuck on the SF/GB game and Titans. For now. 

Do you have a cap analysis on refs for these playoff games? 

@vanzack

 That 6 line is going  to be a huge teaser play , I’m sure books are gonna need the other side of that game.  Could be a teaser killer .  I think if they get to Rodgers he starts sulking as usual.  Has he ever come back fighting when he gets down ?  He’s a great frontrunning qb I’ll be on niners also.  Good luck 

@Revolution_

Please stack the box and give the SF receivers open space.

Just curious.... Do you think the 2nd & 3rd time that they lost in playoffs to SF they didn't have enough revenge motivation yet?

This being the fourth game, they're gonna be more revengeful this time. OK.

I can't wait to see how GB defends the SF weapons... This is a sucker line... -5.5 against Rodgers at home in the cold off a bye? Who could pass that up?

.5 point down. I guess that’s all Bosa and Warner are worth? 

Agree on the Niners

will take them in this spot for sure 

bol with your bets pal 

Deebo Samuel and mitchell are almost unstoppable all day long. They will create big problems for Green Bay and will be able to control the ball and keep Rodgers watching. Then on top of that the niners defense is nearly at the top in every catagory...the +5.5 points are a gift...as far as the weather that is zero factor in this game...

@Vanzack Wanted to start by saying really appreciate what you add to this forum.  Always love reading your thoughts before narrowing down my selections.  Your results obviously speak for themself and personally I believe you are one of the best nfl cappers if not the best on this forum.  Much respect bro.

I’m going to start by playing devils advocate as I’m taking Packers this weekend LARGE.  I’ll admit I’m a packer fan from Green Bay I follow them very closely and trying to not let bias stand in the way.  For the record I did bet against the pack in week 3 when they played the 49ers last and granted I was wrong on that one as their offensive line had held up much better than I had thought in that game.  One point I feel that needs to be mentioned when capping this Packers-49ers game and what asmith was alluding too above is how the Packers should be getting a bunch of key players back in this game. I know some are listed as questionable but the talk here in Green Bay and from the interviews and local radio is that all will play even if in limited fashion with this being a playoff game.  Jaire Alexander, Zadarius Smith, Whitney Mercilus on defense.  On offense David Bahktiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Meyers on the offensive line.  Also Randall Cobb at WR.  These guys are not just role players but are key pieces of this offense and defense.  I know last week you had brought up the Buccaneers returning some pieces and I think this is as or even more significant than the Bucs returning their starters.

Starting on defense Jaire was #1 PFF CB last year.  Having him back I think would allow the packers to stack the box against the run as I believe he can go 1 on 1 with Deebo.  Zadarius and Mercilus will help make a strong rotation at pass rush and pairing them with an underrated Rashan Gary (#6 PFF this year)  and a revived Preston Smith.  The 49ers admittedly do have a strong offensive line and Trent Williams is a beast but in my opinion with these two players returning this will be one of the strongest group the 49ers will face.  Also Devondre Campbell for the pack has had an outstanding season #2 LB on PFF this year and he does not even get mentioned as I believe he can help neutralize Kittle and is also an asset against the run game.  My point in all this is I do believe the packers have a stronger defense than what people think when they are fully healthy. I think that’s going to be the surprise in this game.  You can say statistics are statistics but when you add these players/variables into the mix it gives the Pack much more flexibility in how they game plan and cover up some vulnerabilities that they might have had in the run game.  They have depth at a lot of positions as well and will use rotations to keep their guys fresh.

FYI going to continue this later on with the offense but just feel this is worth talking about and love these discussions.