NFL Divisional Round Initial Leans and Thoughts...

@vanzack Appreciate your breakdowns of these games. Not to blow smoke, but I'm not sure most here realize how lucky we are to have someone like yourself posting here who is experienced, profitable, and with no agenda

A couple thoughts/questions:

Bills/Chiefs -- I'll have a Bills ticket in this one. Recently we've seen fast starts from the Bills.. and slow starts from the Chiefs. How much do you play Live lines once a team gets down?

49ers/GB -- I have to say, I just don't see it with the 49ers. There's no question SF has an Excellent roster... is a tough match-up for any team with the way they play... But, what "big games" has GB lost over the past 2 seasons?  Tampa Bay NFC Championship & Indy in Week 11 2020 are the only ones really. (IMO both Vikings losses don't fit in.) TB in 2020 was the eventual Super Bowl winner... and Indy was the beneficiary of some flukey plays (muffed punt, Rodgers fumble.) 

I believe the 17-0 hole the 49ers got themselves into is being overlooked. And the fact that they never could quite put that Cowboys away in the 2nd Half. Great team, but I think GB wins this one. Call it 27-17

SF looks like a well oiled machine lately. Of course, it's the NFL and the other team always seems to make a run.

23-7 through 3+ quarters v. Dallas isn't bad on a team that scored over 50 in two of it's last three games and was favored.

That game was nearly blown open on one occasion and the int got them back into it. They didn't earn it on offense. The personal foul on roughing the punter and the int was the highlights of Dallas in the second half. 

Jimmy G 4-1 in playoff games. Rodgers 11-9. Just like last week with the pressure on Dallas, tomorrow it's on Rodgers, obviously he's great but their defense is trash. 

I just want a competitive game, I got futures on SF to win NFC & SB. If they get past this game I'm guaranteed a score.

"I just don't see it"... Did you miss the opening drive vs. Dallas? They took field goals on the next 3 drives after opening td or it coulda got ugly in first half.

SF makes 28 pts minimum and maybe 35. GB can outscore them but I don't think a low scoring game favors GB.

The #1 seed in the AFC, who went to the AFC Championship a couple years ago, who has the 2nd best run defense and 5th best run offense despite losing the best RB for half the season, is average?

Ok.

The Bengals have been playing great lately. Penalties and turnovers not an issue for this team and that's why they finally won a playoff game. This team isn't the Bungles of old.

But they are still the new kid on the block.

Tennessee to dominate in the trenches while Cinci hits some big plays in the pass game.

Taking both road teams on the Saturday is very brave. Especially in an 18 game season I have to think a bye is a big adventage. i dont think either will lose SU but if it happens it wont surprise me either.

But I have a strong suspicion that this Titans team gets another shot at the AFC championship. If any team stops them from going to the big one it might be the Chiefs or Buffalo  but it will not be the Bengals.

I watched them vs a decent Miami defense the last time they played at home the o Line was really dominant after having some iniuries and stuff the weeks before. Huge holes for Foreman and Tannehill barely undee pressure at all. I also like Autry and Simmons to collapse the pocket inside on Burrow a lot more effectively than the Raiders who have one edge rusher

Gl Van..  go Bills

Packers in arguably the weakest Division in NFC. 49ers coming out of the toughest. 49er's have scrapped and clawed to get here. It's all on Jimmy G. I'll take the points.

Most banged up team in the tournament is the Bucs. The Bucs are my team most likely to be boat raced. Love the alt line here

My betting with my heart bet this weekend is the Bengals. Joe Burrow is special. He's going to find a way to get this done. His weapons are sneaky good. Digging the Bengals

I have no freaking idea on the Bills/Chiefs. This probably should have been the Super Bowl. I see the line dropping. So many freaks on the field for both teams. I'll look at the injury report and decide at the end.

Good luck!!!!

or close your eyes and "Use the force Luke". 

PS... lol ... and In the Superbowl... Brady goes to Burrow, "Joe, I am your father". 

Thanks for the posts guys.

Seems like most are on the Titans and Packers, and I will just say very passionate about that.

Final plays for Saturday....

*Bengals +3.5 (2 units) (you can get 4 now at some places, and I think if you wait you will get 4)  Bengals 21-20
*49ers +5.5 (4.5 units) 49ers 27-21

GL all

@vanzack

 PS. The Jets beat Tenn. on Oct. 3rd in OT.. Just something to consider 

@vanzack

Hopefully the dogs will bark loud enough to cover the spread...

the best to you always  my brother 

Bengals +4 at Bookmaker now

@vanzack

 Good Luck this weekend! 

Can't say I have seen more "they cant lose" posts than the Packers this week.

My perception of Covers is that the Packers and Titans are very popular here, and very certain.

@vanzack

 You ever play 1st Half? Or only full game?

Rarely bet 1st half.

I do bet 2nd half, live betting etc - but rarely 1st half.

You have some insight today?

GL

Both bye teams. So it's understandable. I took a stab on the Titans -2.5 1H and a +return with Packers -9.5

Best of luck this weekend 

GL Bud

Good analysis as always ..

IMO I think the Bengals/Titans will be a bit higher scoring. Titans will have to keep up with Bengals if they can.  I personally think the Bengals play with no worries. They already got monkey off back and now can play free..  dangerous team if they click 

Lambeau Field game time temp 16 degrees…dropping to 2 degrees later. Nuff said…bye bye Niners

Titans easy   Bengals were lucky beat the Raiders last week . Good luck though . 

Titans have beaten - Bills , KC , 49ers and the Rams this year . 

GL Today undermysac

SB in my thread!

Cant tell you how many 'Titans easy" or "packers easy" posts I have seen

Final plays for Saturday....

*Bengals +3.5 (2 units) (you can get 4 now at some places, and I think if you wait you will get 4)  Bengals 21-20
*49ers +5.5 (4.5 units) 49ers 27-21

GL all