This has to be one of the shortest combined spread differences for the divisional round in quite some time. I actually can't remember lines being this short/close. I'm still in the research phase but like the way you're leaning. The oddsmakers may have tipped their hand a bit this week.
I think you are correct with this. I certainly can't remember a closer spread week for this divisional week.
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Quote Originally Posted by Onthereal:
This has to be one of the shortest combined spread differences for the divisional round in quite some time. I actually can't remember lines being this short/close. I'm still in the research phase but like the way you're leaning. The oddsmakers may have tipped their hand a bit this week.
I think you are correct with this. I certainly can't remember a closer spread week for this divisional week.
Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB. Was this your only futures wager in this group? Usually to win these huge odds wagers it takes quite a few stabs ( I would guess around 5 or 6 tickets). That decreases the ROI down from 43-1 to less than 9-1. Still a good payout but with a poor QB. If its 9-1 or less on the 49ers not worth it in my opinion. 49ers have a chance. but we will see if they will. I am in the dark on how you meander though your own process' so best wishes.
Nope... Only 1 future and it was bet before the Rams game on the last game of the season on SF. I rarely bet futures.
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Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB. Was this your only futures wager in this group? Usually to win these huge odds wagers it takes quite a few stabs ( I would guess around 5 or 6 tickets). That decreases the ROI down from 43-1 to less than 9-1. Still a good payout but with a poor QB. If its 9-1 or less on the 49ers not worth it in my opinion. 49ers have a chance. but we will see if they will. I am in the dark on how you meander though your own process' so best wishes.
Nope... Only 1 future and it was bet before the Rams game on the last game of the season on SF. I rarely bet futures.
You don't choose your sos but you can beatdown the teams on the schedule. Bills won 12 games by 12+ points. The only 7 other teams to do that all won the Superbowl. KC gets Jones back which is huge. I think he's their best defender. Bills lost Tre White, their best defender. KC playing much better now than before, bt so are the Bills. Should be a great game. Personally, I think all these games are basically 50/50. So give me all the dogs too. There is a ton of newbie money flooding into sportsmoney....what is a newbie thinking? 1) Higher seed must be the better team (not necessarily true) 2) Better team playing at home is going to win (HFA this year is only 1.5 points roughly - according to Massey) 3) If the team is going to win, they will almost always cover a short line. 4) Tease a 6 point favorite down so you don't get backdoored Best of luck to everyone this weekend, especially the refs. I hope no one talks about them on Monday
Sharp as always.
1, 2, 3, and 4 could go on a poster or a tshirt at every new sportsbook in the USA>
GL Thorpe
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
You don't choose your sos but you can beatdown the teams on the schedule. Bills won 12 games by 12+ points. The only 7 other teams to do that all won the Superbowl. KC gets Jones back which is huge. I think he's their best defender. Bills lost Tre White, their best defender. KC playing much better now than before, bt so are the Bills. Should be a great game. Personally, I think all these games are basically 50/50. So give me all the dogs too. There is a ton of newbie money flooding into sportsmoney....what is a newbie thinking? 1) Higher seed must be the better team (not necessarily true) 2) Better team playing at home is going to win (HFA this year is only 1.5 points roughly - according to Massey) 3) If the team is going to win, they will almost always cover a short line. 4) Tease a 6 point favorite down so you don't get backdoored Best of luck to everyone this weekend, especially the refs. I hope no one talks about them on Monday
Sharp as always.
1, 2, 3, and 4 could go on a poster or a tshirt at every new sportsbook in the USA>
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB. Was this your only futures wager in this group? Usually to win these huge odds wagers it takes quite a few stabs ( I would guess around 5 or 6 tickets). That decreases the ROI down from 43-1 to less than 9-1. Still a good payout but with a poor QB. If its 9-1 or less on the 49ers not worth it in my opinion. 49ers have a chance. but we will see if they will. I am in the dark on how you meander though your own process' so best wishes. Nope... Only 1 future and it was bet before the Rams game on the last game of the season on SF. I rarely bet futures. This is the post... https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1478778509841600517?s=20
Hey well done then. I dont care when, or even if you posted this. Best wishes on the selection.
Spottie2935 on socials
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB. Was this your only futures wager in this group? Usually to win these huge odds wagers it takes quite a few stabs ( I would guess around 5 or 6 tickets). That decreases the ROI down from 43-1 to less than 9-1. Still a good payout but with a poor QB. If its 9-1 or less on the 49ers not worth it in my opinion. 49ers have a chance. but we will see if they will. I am in the dark on how you meander though your own process' so best wishes. Nope... Only 1 future and it was bet before the Rams game on the last game of the season on SF. I rarely bet futures. This is the post... https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1478778509841600517?s=20
Hey well done then. I dont care when, or even if you posted this. Best wishes on the selection.
You said that non of your plays are finalized yet. Fwiw, imo I feel like the Bengals are the weakest dog on the card.
I was on the Bengals last week and feel very lucky to have covered that game.
The Titans are 4-1 vs sagarin top 10 teams. 8-2 vs top 16.
Bengals 1-2, 2-3
But I do favor Burrow over Tanny, and the QB position is the most important part of a football.
My biggest problem in backing Cincy is that their D line is so bad, and they're banged up.
The Raiders could of ran for 200 if they just handed off the rock, 14 carries vs 54 pass attempts was a poor formula vs a talented young secondary. Jessie Bates is an outstanding center fielder at safety when it comes to pass coverage. But he hates contact and tackling, and I think the Titans won't make the same mistake that the Raiders made when it comes to run/pass ratio.
The Titans don't only get King Henry back, but their fullback Tony Carter. Here's a quick link about him, cause who the fuck caps fullbacks in 2022?
Mike Vrabel is 4-0 ats off a bye. I don't see him screwing the pooch. Only Tanny could screw this up imo, but I don't think that Vrabel will be putting him in that position all that often.
Also, Vrabel coming from the Bill Belichick coaching tree will no doubt take out the Bengals biggest threat, and that's Ja'mar Chase. He'll probably get double teamed.
My 2 cents
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@vanzack
You said that non of your plays are finalized yet. Fwiw, imo I feel like the Bengals are the weakest dog on the card.
I was on the Bengals last week and feel very lucky to have covered that game.
The Titans are 4-1 vs sagarin top 10 teams. 8-2 vs top 16.
Bengals 1-2, 2-3
But I do favor Burrow over Tanny, and the QB position is the most important part of a football.
My biggest problem in backing Cincy is that their D line is so bad, and they're banged up.
The Raiders could of ran for 200 if they just handed off the rock, 14 carries vs 54 pass attempts was a poor formula vs a talented young secondary. Jessie Bates is an outstanding center fielder at safety when it comes to pass coverage. But he hates contact and tackling, and I think the Titans won't make the same mistake that the Raiders made when it comes to run/pass ratio.
The Titans don't only get King Henry back, but their fullback Tony Carter. Here's a quick link about him, cause who the fuck caps fullbacks in 2022?
Mike Vrabel is 4-0 ats off a bye. I don't see him screwing the pooch. Only Tanny could screw this up imo, but I don't think that Vrabel will be putting him in that position all that often.
Also, Vrabel coming from the Bill Belichick coaching tree will no doubt take out the Bengals biggest threat, and that's Ja'mar Chase. He'll probably get double teamed.
You don't choose your sos but you can beatdown the teams on the schedule. Bills won 12 games by 12+ points. The only 7 other teams to do that all won the Superbowl. KC gets Jones back which is huge. I think he's their best defender. Bills lost Tre White, their best defender. KC playing much better now than before, bt so are the Bills. Should be a great game. Personally, I think all these games are basically 50/50. So give me all the dogs too. There is a ton of newbie money flooding into sportsmoney....what is a newbie thinking? 1) Higher seed must be the better team (not necessarily true) 2) Better team playing at home is going to win (HFA this year is only 1.5 points roughly - according to Massey) 3) If the team is going to win, they will almost always cover a short line. 4) Tease a 6 point favorite down so you don't get backdoored Best of luck to everyone this weekend, especially the refs. I hope no one talks about them on Monday
Yep...
I do an ATS pool (fun $10 for family/friends), and the action on the Faves week 1 was about 85% of the picks. I have 4 teams 6-0, 5 teams 5-1, and another 5 at 4-2 out of 25. Rest are 3-3 and 1 team at 2-4.
I am guessing that week 2 picks won't be 85% Faves, but it will be 60-70% for sure. It's kind of like a "Public Bettor Barometer", and it is reading "Dogs"...
GL Van - thank for posting your thoughts and picks.
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
You don't choose your sos but you can beatdown the teams on the schedule. Bills won 12 games by 12+ points. The only 7 other teams to do that all won the Superbowl. KC gets Jones back which is huge. I think he's their best defender. Bills lost Tre White, their best defender. KC playing much better now than before, bt so are the Bills. Should be a great game. Personally, I think all these games are basically 50/50. So give me all the dogs too. There is a ton of newbie money flooding into sportsmoney....what is a newbie thinking? 1) Higher seed must be the better team (not necessarily true) 2) Better team playing at home is going to win (HFA this year is only 1.5 points roughly - according to Massey) 3) If the team is going to win, they will almost always cover a short line. 4) Tease a 6 point favorite down so you don't get backdoored Best of luck to everyone this weekend, especially the refs. I hope no one talks about them on Monday
Yep...
I do an ATS pool (fun $10 for family/friends), and the action on the Faves week 1 was about 85% of the picks. I have 4 teams 6-0, 5 teams 5-1, and another 5 at 4-2 out of 25. Rest are 3-3 and 1 team at 2-4.
I am guessing that week 2 picks won't be 85% Faves, but it will be 60-70% for sure. It's kind of like a "Public Bettor Barometer", and it is reading "Dogs"...
GL Van - thank for posting your thoughts and picks.
All this talking about Raiders didn’t stick to the run game or they win… they tried and could not run the ball. Burrow was throwing dimes and Raiders had to play catch-up. What if… Titans could not run either? Trust Tanny? I don’t know, Burrow loves the spotlights and the Bangals are hungry.
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All this talking about Raiders didn’t stick to the run game or they win… they tried and could not run the ball. Burrow was throwing dimes and Raiders had to play catch-up. What if… Titans could not run either? Trust Tanny? I don’t know, Burrow loves the spotlights and the Bangals are hungry.
Going to do what I did last week with some mid-week pregame thoughts on the games this weekend. These are not necessarily my bets, although they likely will be close. I will post final bets in a new thread on Sat and Sun. With Covid and some significant injuries yet to be determined.... I suggest waiting unless you know something to bet. One other thing.... Take these and my final picks for what they are worth. Some random dude on the internet giving free advice. You push the button on every bet you make - not me. Look inward if this doesn't make sense to you. NFL Season: +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs: 4-2 +7.45 units Bengals / Titans: I think we have settled on the cheap 3.5 or expensive 3 for the rest of the week. Would be surprised to see 4 again. I'm having trouble finding anyone who is strongly on the Bengals in this one - but lots of love here and in public for the Titans. Not that that means much to me, I just find it interesting that people seem to be forgetting that the Titans are a pretty below average playoff team. Sometimes I feel like people want so badly to build a narrative to support a side they want to bet that they stretch their own truth to do it. Here are some numbers that stick out to me: Weighted DVOA: TN 13 CN 14TN weighted offense 20CN weighted defense 24CN covered 75% on the road this season The key in this one is going to be the TN offense vs the Bengals defense that will be without Ogunjobe. I keep reading about Henry being back - and while he might be one of the best RBs in the NFL - it is just the least impactful position on the field for replacement value. The Titans offense lays eggs all the time.... in their last 10 game, they have averaged a pedestrian 22 points a game while gaining just an average of 314 yards per game and that includes the Texans twice and the Jags once. I just see this as a very even matchup, and I will be on the side with the bigger potential upside, better QB, plus the points. I see myself on the Bengals +3.5 for around 2 units (TBD). 21-20 either way 49ers / Packers: (Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB but that has no influence on this pick) Line at 5.5ish now awaiting key defensive injury news for SF and final weather I like SF here. I love SF if Bosa and Warner are playing. The key to this game is the Niners ability to run the ball, and the Packers are 28th adjusted against the run, against SF rushing attack at 4th. That is too good to pass up for me. Everyone likes to ignore that the Packers defense is very weak in favor of the Rodgers narrative. Look - I get it - betting against Rodgers is not fun and he is undeniably great. But SF should be able to move the ball - and in a low risk way that keeps the ball out of trouble (Jimmy G's hands). Shanahan is no dummy. I would be surprised to see the Niners with more than 20 throws (unless they fall way behind early). I am waiting to see if Bosa will play - but I think he will. Big bet on the Niners for me again - both ML and spread. Somewhere around 4 units or so. SF 27-21
Talk about constructing a narrative, Vanz, to justify a bet. For fun’s sake, I’ll point out the irony of your premise for the two games above.
For Bungles vs Titans you claim running backs are overvalued (Henry in this case) and the strong play of the QB (Burrow) will win the day over the Titans conservative offensive approach. Whereas for the Packers game you say the Niners strong running game, or ball control offense, will win the day over one of the greatest QBs to play the game?!
4
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Going to do what I did last week with some mid-week pregame thoughts on the games this weekend. These are not necessarily my bets, although they likely will be close. I will post final bets in a new thread on Sat and Sun. With Covid and some significant injuries yet to be determined.... I suggest waiting unless you know something to bet. One other thing.... Take these and my final picks for what they are worth. Some random dude on the internet giving free advice. You push the button on every bet you make - not me. Look inward if this doesn't make sense to you. NFL Season: +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs: 4-2 +7.45 units Bengals / Titans: I think we have settled on the cheap 3.5 or expensive 3 for the rest of the week. Would be surprised to see 4 again. I'm having trouble finding anyone who is strongly on the Bengals in this one - but lots of love here and in public for the Titans. Not that that means much to me, I just find it interesting that people seem to be forgetting that the Titans are a pretty below average playoff team. Sometimes I feel like people want so badly to build a narrative to support a side they want to bet that they stretch their own truth to do it. Here are some numbers that stick out to me: Weighted DVOA: TN 13 CN 14TN weighted offense 20CN weighted defense 24CN covered 75% on the road this season The key in this one is going to be the TN offense vs the Bengals defense that will be without Ogunjobe. I keep reading about Henry being back - and while he might be one of the best RBs in the NFL - it is just the least impactful position on the field for replacement value. The Titans offense lays eggs all the time.... in their last 10 game, they have averaged a pedestrian 22 points a game while gaining just an average of 314 yards per game and that includes the Texans twice and the Jags once. I just see this as a very even matchup, and I will be on the side with the bigger potential upside, better QB, plus the points. I see myself on the Bengals +3.5 for around 2 units (TBD). 21-20 either way 49ers / Packers: (Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB but that has no influence on this pick) Line at 5.5ish now awaiting key defensive injury news for SF and final weather I like SF here. I love SF if Bosa and Warner are playing. The key to this game is the Niners ability to run the ball, and the Packers are 28th adjusted against the run, against SF rushing attack at 4th. That is too good to pass up for me. Everyone likes to ignore that the Packers defense is very weak in favor of the Rodgers narrative. Look - I get it - betting against Rodgers is not fun and he is undeniably great. But SF should be able to move the ball - and in a low risk way that keeps the ball out of trouble (Jimmy G's hands). Shanahan is no dummy. I would be surprised to see the Niners with more than 20 throws (unless they fall way behind early). I am waiting to see if Bosa will play - but I think he will. Big bet on the Niners for me again - both ML and spread. Somewhere around 4 units or so. SF 27-21
Talk about constructing a narrative, Vanz, to justify a bet. For fun’s sake, I’ll point out the irony of your premise for the two games above.
For Bungles vs Titans you claim running backs are overvalued (Henry in this case) and the strong play of the QB (Burrow) will win the day over the Titans conservative offensive approach. Whereas for the Packers game you say the Niners strong running game, or ball control offense, will win the day over one of the greatest QBs to play the game?!
You mention DVOA for titans game, but thats based mostly on yards. titans defense gives up yards but make big plays in the redzone. bengals do the opposite.
Redzone Offense TD ranks: TENN #6 CINC #19
Redzone Defense TD ranks:TENN #4, CINC #15
I see the possibility of a backdoor but I think TENN will be in control up 10+ most of the game
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You mention DVOA for titans game, but thats based mostly on yards. titans defense gives up yards but make big plays in the redzone. bengals do the opposite.
Redzone Offense TD ranks: TENN #6 CINC #19
Redzone Defense TD ranks:TENN #4, CINC #15
I see the possibility of a backdoor but I think TENN will be in control up 10+ most of the game
All this talking about Raiders didn’t stick to the run game or they win… they tried and could not run the ball. Burrow was throwing dimes and Raiders had to play catch-up. What if… Titans could not run either? Trust Tanny? I don’t know, Burrow loves the spotlights and the Bangals are hungry.
7.4 yards per rush is kinda decent last I checked.
Carr average 5.7 yards per pass, got sacked 3 times, lost a fumble, and threw a pick.
Yet, the Raiders had 4 downs to tie the game from the 10 yard line on the last drive.
The Raiders ran 71 plays, the Bengals ran 61 plays. Then how did the Bengals out gain them in time of possession by nearly 3 minutes?
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Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:
All this talking about Raiders didn’t stick to the run game or they win… they tried and could not run the ball. Burrow was throwing dimes and Raiders had to play catch-up. What if… Titans could not run either? Trust Tanny? I don’t know, Burrow loves the spotlights and the Bangals are hungry.
7.4 yards per rush is kinda decent last I checked.
Carr average 5.7 yards per pass, got sacked 3 times, lost a fumble, and threw a pick.
Yet, the Raiders had 4 downs to tie the game from the 10 yard line on the last drive.
The Raiders ran 71 plays, the Bengals ran 61 plays. Then how did the Bengals out gain them in time of possession by nearly 3 minutes?
I like the Titans to win and cover 3.5. Vrabel has this team focused and especially if Henry is back they should be able to control the clock. It’s not pretty football, but it’s effective and their defense can do enough to keep it close. Bengals too inexperienced but I like them moving forward, they have a lot to build on future playoff appearances. As for the others, I will bet Brady until at least the NFC championship, Bills have the better defense and can score with KC either way. SF is dangerous and Deebo is a lethal weapon on that team, I’ll take the points. BOL Van!
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I like the Titans to win and cover 3.5. Vrabel has this team focused and especially if Henry is back they should be able to control the clock. It’s not pretty football, but it’s effective and their defense can do enough to keep it close. Bengals too inexperienced but I like them moving forward, they have a lot to build on future playoff appearances. As for the others, I will bet Brady until at least the NFC championship, Bills have the better defense and can score with KC either way. SF is dangerous and Deebo is a lethal weapon on that team, I’ll take the points. BOL Van!
Quote Talk about constructing a narrative, Vanz, to justify a bet. For fun’s sake, I’ll point out the irony of your premise for the two games above. For Bungles vs Titans you claim running backs are overvalued (Henry in this case) and the strong play of the QB (Burrow) will win the day over the Titans conservative offensive approach. Whereas for the Packers game you say the Niners strong running game, or ball control offense, will win the day over one of the greatest QBs to play the game?!
I guess I didnt make my point well about RBs. I was saying that individual differences in RB performance is overrated. The difference between Henry and XXXX in the NFL is not as great as other position replacements.
That has nothing to do with the Niners / Packers game.
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Quote Talk about constructing a narrative, Vanz, to justify a bet. For fun’s sake, I’ll point out the irony of your premise for the two games above. For Bungles vs Titans you claim running backs are overvalued (Henry in this case) and the strong play of the QB (Burrow) will win the day over the Titans conservative offensive approach. Whereas for the Packers game you say the Niners strong running game, or ball control offense, will win the day over one of the greatest QBs to play the game?!
I guess I didnt make my point well about RBs. I was saying that individual differences in RB performance is overrated. The difference between Henry and XXXX in the NFL is not as great as other position replacements.
That has nothing to do with the Niners / Packers game.
VZ how much weight do you put into Tennessee straight up wins against Buff and KC? Vrabel > Bengals coach also.
They also beat the Niners without Henry, the very team Vanz is backing to not only beat one of the greatest QBs of all time on his home turf but also the SB. Yet they can’t beat the Bungles. Go figure.
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Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
VZ how much weight do you put into Tennessee straight up wins against Buff and KC? Vrabel > Bengals coach also.
They also beat the Niners without Henry, the very team Vanz is backing to not only beat one of the greatest QBs of all time on his home turf but also the SB. Yet they can’t beat the Bungles. Go figure.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN
Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN
Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance.
Niners don't have any great chance
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Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance.
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance. Niners don't have any great chance
In that case, lay the lumber and eat the chalk HEAVY.
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Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies.... Please tell me Im going to see you post a .25 unit UDMLP at +3500 VAN Only home favorite that wins is Tennessee I believe. Rams, Niners and Bills ML has a great chance. Niners don't have any great chance
In that case, lay the lumber and eat the chalk HEAVY.
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