NFL Divisional Playoff Ponderings and Wagers

No plays as of yet, or leans either for that matter. I usually do well in the Wild Card round (3-1 ATS this past weekend, +6.7 units), but I've found the Divisional round to be a little trickier over the years. Weather could certainly come into play in three of the four matchups, especially in KC and Philly where the Chiefs and Eagles host teams more acclimated to warm weather. It looks to be absolutely frigid in Buffalo, but the Ravens probably won't be as affected as the other two teams could be. Snow may or not be in the forecast for all three venues. I can hardly wait for the Ravens-Bills clash. I think both teams grade out better than the Chiefs, but fortunately for KC they'll only have to play one of them, provided they get past Houston.

One note from the wild card round; I was totally impressed with the poise Jayden Daniels exhibited in the Commies' win at Tampa Monday night (my sole loss of the weekend), but Dan Quinn took some reckless gambles that could've cost them the game. Who does he think he is, Dan Campbell? 

Well that's the reward for obtaining the #1 seed in the conference. 

8 

I like chiefs and eagles because of their O line matchups.   

Daniels has been very impressive this season, same with Goff.    Still thinking about this game but I believe commandos have a punchers chance at the upset if Goff is off like he was @texans

I was following you in the wild card round and you did a great job!

This Texans team have speed on defense, but the Chiefs are NOT going to play into their hands, where the Texans are Strong! Andy Reid have done this for too long. I lost a bunch on the Chargers last weekend. A few things I see not happening this week if KC's D playing out of position when their front 4 get to Stroud allowing those break play plays going to big yards or scoring plays, Chiefs defense is GOOD as well if not better than the Chargers, the key for me is the same as last week for the Texans, missing Diggs and Dell isnt going to help, the Chargers let Nico Collins beat them, I doubt the Chiefs will even entertain that idea of even having a possibility. Mahomes no need to say is GREAT! They aren't going to sit around and let the Speed of the Texans make plays, Andy Reid is a Guru on the offensive side of the ball, but this will be a nice game for the Chiefs Kingdom to enjoy. With the current spread of 8, I feel like its KC or no play! Chiefs will win, betting the Texans is praying for a cover.

As much as I lost on the Chargers I made more than enough back PLUS on the RedSkins, they are a good team, fun to watch with a explosive play makers, but they are NOT fully running at top speed yet. Some things just takes time to jell, but I am not worry too much about their offensive side as I am on their defensive side of the game, the Lions are very well balance, unless Goff really shits the bed, Lions should be pounding this RedSkins defense all game long, but the Spread is at 10 fucking points, maybe a bit too much even for the Lions to cover with the way the RedSkins can move and score the ball?

I like Rams, I made out like a bandit on that game. Lowkey might be one of the top defense in the league, but Hurts is no Darnold, and Barkley is a real MF, Hurts might not be Joe Montana, but he is not going to run into sacks and do stupid shit to kill his team's chances or moving the ball and scoring at the very least not put them behind the sticks. One key player no one is really talking about is Dean, losing him SUCKS for Philly fans, and the way those CBs always get hurt in the game leaving for a few plays here and a drive there won't help with Puka and Cooper but this Philly team's D=Line will get to Stafford, we all know how ass he can be when he SUCKS! I like the Eagles to move on to the next round. 

Ravens at Bills might be the best game all season at this stage in the playoffs, 100% Ravens have the better overall TEAM! Especially if Zay Flowers can play like his normal self, but Josh Allen is insane this year! I honestly can't watch a game without having a penny on the line but this is one game where I dont even want to pick a side, going get a few buddies and just enjoy this game!

BOL and I look forward to seeing your plays!

I wasn't overly impressed with the Rams offense on Monday. Sure the first 2 drives they put points on the board, but after that, what did they really do? They returned a fumble and then scored off a poor decision by O'Connell right before halftime. Furthermore, since the Buffalo game on December 8th, the offense has been stagnant. Outside Puka and Williams there isn't much there right now. Kupp seems like a shell of himself and Higbee was great for the 1 quarter they got out of him, but it sounds like he is in rough shape. If he can't go that is a big blow. You can see the difference without him there as the safety valve for Stafford. Throw in the constant travelling for LA right now and I don't like their chances. Philly D will come to play. Losing Dean is a big loss but they can adjust. Anything is possible but this just feels to me like a beat down.

@detroitdavid

@bigred84

@FillyFlier16

 True enough. 

@Fuse

@Biscuit

 No argument with anything you posted.

@MRxKrazz

 Great analysis! I'll be posting at least one play tomorrow. 

@AJ86

 Spot on! Plus, the weather conditions don't favor the Rams at all  

BOL peeps! 

3* CHIEFS -9 over Texans - Yes, I know that ten of KC's first 11 wins were by seven points or less, and here they're laying nine. Yikes! But in their last three games that mattered (Browns, Texans, Steelers) the Chiefs seemed to have found their groove (3-0 SU and ATS), and have basically had two weeks off to heal and get ready for another playoff run. No team in this year's playoffs has had more success than Andy Reid's Chiefs, with FOUR Super Bowl appearances in the last five years! Houston meanwhile is 0-5 in divisional playoff games all time, and CJ Stroud is 0-2 SU and ATS in temps of less than 35 degrees. Temps at kickoff will be in the low 20s with a wind chill factor in the teens. That doesn't bode well for a Texans team used to playing their home games in a controlled climate. Patrick Mahomes meanwhile seems to thrive in cold weather, going 8-3 SU and ATS in less than 30 degree temps! Finally, home teams that score 27 or more points in this round are 35-13 ATS. If they score less than 27 they fall to 7-35-2 ATS. It's 50-50 that the Chiefs hit that number. However, road teams that score less than 23 points are a dismal 11-24 ATS! With KC's defense and the weather factor I don't see Houston coming anywhere near that number. I also don't expect the Texans to come up with another four interceptions like they did against the Chargers last week. KC just finds ways to win.ffense, defense, special teams, they have it all, and I expect over the course of the game they'll methodically wear the Texans down. 27-10, CHIEFS! BOL to all! 

Also, read Indigo's thread for another reason to back KC. Andy Reid is money as a home fav of more than six points in the playoffs. 14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS with more than nine days rest! 

Wow! Chiefs are being totally outplayed! Wasn't expecting this from Joe Mixon with a bad ankle. Houston could win this.

-9 is too much for a playoff game. Very bad call

I see you have 20-20 hindsight! Got any plays you wanna share for the rest of the weekend genius?

Yes Lions -9 so you can get your money back

LIONS (-8, down from -9) vs Commanders - I could make a case for either side here. Lions have been a consistent money maker under Dan Campbell, but have they peaked too soon? The return of David Montgomery is huge for Detroit. He and Jahmyr Gibbs SHOULD be able to run against Washington's porous run defense, and keep Jayden Daniels and that offense on the sidelines. But Daniels really impressed me with his poise last week at Tampa, and even with rookie QBs now 6-12 SU and ATS in the last 18 tries, the Lions could have their hands full. No play for me here. I'll say 28-20, LIONS.

Looks like you just copied my pick

CHIEFS -9 is a push. Damn intentional safety at the end cost me the cover.  Would've been a lucky cover though! Texans outplayed em.

"-9 is too much for a playoff game. Very bad call"

And yet you're taking Lions -9? You oughta be a politician! But good luck on your play. 

Yep! Looks like you might be right. "-9 is too much for a playoff game. Very bad call". Still early though. You MIGHT pull it out with Detroit. 

Sorry scratch that previous play. I took the Commanders +9.5 and moneyline.

Riiiiiiiight. 

Wow! What a shocker! Congrats to the Commies!