Here are betting rules that I follow:
#1. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
#2. Weather such as rain, snow and wind usually make the team with the best offense wins.
#3. Home advantage, especially in a dome stadium. Will make the home team more likely to win because of the stadium crowd noise.
#4. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Bet what you need to bet and know when to quit.
#5. Future bets seem to be easier to win than ATS and ML bets.
#6. Pay attention to injuries to important players, most of the time can effect the outcome of a game.
#7. NFL teams after the Bye, especially favorites, will have a high chance of winning.
#8. Do as much research as possible.
#9. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! So you should have an account in multiple books.
#10 I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. Many say that the first few weeks of regular season is a guessing game.
#11. There should not be dramatical difference between your stakes. Don't place 2 unit on Game-A, 10 Unit on Game-B and 40 Unit then Game-C.
#12. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#13. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
I use a 4 point system and it works well for me.
1. establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
The key is being able to incorporate all of these tools together to come up with a hypothesis to beat the spread. You can't use one without the others to be effective.
I use a 4 point system and it works well for me.
1. establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
The key is being able to incorporate all of these tools together to come up with a hypothesis to beat the spread. You can't use one without the others to be effective.
Nice, I like these rule.
Here are betting rules that I follow:
#1. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
#2. Weather such as rain, snow and wind usually make the team with the best offense wins.
#3. Home advantage, especially in a dome stadium. Will make the home team more likely to win because of the stadium crowd noise.
#4. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Bet what you need to bet and know when to quit.
#5. Future bets seem to be easier to win than ATS and ML bets.
#6. Pay attention to injuries to important players, most of the time can effect the outcome of a game.
#7. NFL teams after the Bye, especially favorites, will have a high chance of winning.
#8. Do as much research as possible.
#9. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! So you should have an account in multiple books.
#10 I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. Many say that the first few weeks of regular season is a guessing game.
#11. There should not be dramatical difference between your stakes. Don't place 2 unit on Game-A, 10 Unit on Game-B and 40 Unit then Game-C.
#12. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#13. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
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