My detailed expectations for NE @ New Orleans:

All these stats you throwing out there for the Pats is nice, BUT this is definitely the most balance the Pats are going to play this season. The closest to balance was the Colts but Colts don't even have a running game as comparable to the Saints. Mike Bell, P. Thomas, Reggie Bush = 5th ranked rushing. Throw in the fact, Saints are @ home where they are 11-2 SU going back to last season. The stats are nice.....but I like to see results in the win/loss column and the Saints have shown stellar results.  

On a final note, NE backers better pray Billicheck don't countinue to make bad coaching decisions like he has all yr. tonight, costing his team losses. True, this is a tough test for Saints but what we all been seeing is, NE on the decline while Saints are on the rise. The Saints are playing like the Pats during their undefeated season....the role have reversed.

That is true, Pats are the staple of the NFL. Beating them is like beating a SB team. But Pats have a thin defense. They have been known to give up big leads in the 2nd half and the Saints are a 2nd half team.

I can certainly see how you derived at that conclusion, and though I don't fully agree, I have to respect how you got to that thought... BOL 2 U!

I am sure you do want to see me fall flat here.  I am a "wana be your friend"... what exactly does that mean?  You kind of lost me there.

Quote Originally Posted by 3WIZARDOFODDS:

@ renroh123.  You bring up some valid points HOWEVER According to your own numbers the Pats have faced 4 teams with a defensive ranking under 20 and they are 2-3 v.s. them.  indy/nyj (2x)/den/bal. Furthermore the only team the Pats have beaten this year on the road is Tampa Bay.
The Saints have beaten everyone they faced and are 5-0 v.s. teams with a defensive ranking of 20 or lower.

As this game is a pick or -1 I can't see even by your numbers an advantage for N.E. here.

I find your method interesting but I am not sure how you account for the variables.
 N.O. will be up for this game.
If their opponent was a lower tier opponent then maybe it could be a trap.
In my humble opinion those numbers mean nothing as they can be read both ways.
Again I am not bashing your method I just don't see why it works, as it appears to be all as to how you read the results.

GL BUT I AM ON THE OTHER SIDE WITH THIS ONE

You are a 'mathematician' after my own heart; I like the angle you took there, as it is much like how I evaluate games myself.  True, the only way to eliminate these varibles is non-exsistent.  We would need each team to play the exact schedules, on the exact days, with the exact injuries, energy levels, motivational factors, ect... impossible.  So, we viewed it, cut it up, looked at it again, and we both took a different view.  I totally respect what you are saying, and thinking.  But as you said, we are on different sides on this one.   GL 2 U on all your wagers (except this one, of course..lol..wink)

The absolute 'X factor' is the running game, and Pats running defense.  I just don't think Brees/Peyton will miss the urge to put it in the air multiple times.  S. Peyton, and Brees both feel 'duped' that they have not been called 'legit' yet, and want to make a statement.  Smart move keeps it on the ground vs Pats, I just don't think they will do so.

Take care, and BOL

I fully agree on both your point, and much of my logic is based on these points... The Saints have not had 'that' game that proves their arrival, and I don't think they will succeed tonight.

Quote Originally Posted by BostonStrangler:

I dont see NEs D having enough play-makers to validate such an advantage on turnovers.

Hmmm... yea, but turn overs become more likely as the opposing offense becomes more desparate.  The Saints-I believe-will become desparate in this game, and once Brees begins to force the issue, he can give up as many as anyone can.  That is what I am banking on...

BOL!

I started writing this during the end of the 3^rd quarter, and posted it with left in the 4^th quarter.  The Saints have literally taken the Pats will to fight. I am the first to stand behind what I say, and admit when I am wrong.  The Saints are for real, and I could not have been more wrong.  Truth be told, this is as big of a capping embarrassment as I ever have incurred. The score does not do justice to the ass kicking that Brees and company dished out.  With that said; I fully anticipate those that I had ‘argued’ with on this topic to have your well deserved shots-as I would have done if the result were reversed.  Congrats, and know I will be hesitant to underestimate the New Orleans Saints in the future. Parting thoughts:

*Damn! The Saints looked good!!  I don’t think the Vikings would have a shot if the game is played in New Orleans.

* If they were to play this game again tomorrow; the line would be Saints -14.5

* Lastly, I wonder what percentage of Charger fans are wishing they traded Phillip Rivers instead? Lol….

Have at it boyz, I deserve it, and you do as well…and I won’t hide; I will reply to posts, just as I have up until now.

Quote Originally Posted by koko11:

You was right about the turnovers, just wrong about who would throw them...Brady has 2 picks for a total of 3 TO for the Pats... You will bounce back, you just took a bad angle on this game IMO.... BOL in the future..

Thanks my man... not often that I discredit myself this badly, but it is what it is.  BOL 2 U

the reason i took the saints is because I read this thread. the common opponents arguement and who you predict will have turnovers (really, can you accurately predict such things?) didnt make any case at all for NE. it seemed you just wanted to take the pats, much like alot of cappers on here early yesterday.

the bottom line for this game was that it means 10x more to the saints (going undefeated, keeping home field pace with Vikes) than the pats (pretty much clinched division, 3rd seed). plus the saints have one of the true home field adantages left in the NFL, playing on MNF and hadnt played a game they could get up for in weeks - perfect spot.  you have to cap those intangables, not just statistics . stats are all relative to who teams played at what time of year and the makeup of the personnel at that time of year. you even said so much yourself on one of your posts

 "We would need each team to play the exact schedules, on the exact days, with the exact injuries, energy levels, motivational factors, ect... impossible"

I am not bashing you here, i am trying to point out how sometimes we want to bet teams and pose a convincing arguement to do so. when it comes to capping, you can always make a case to take one team or the other and throw statistics in there to make you feel better about it. some stats cannot be ignored but try not to base your betting on statistics and predictions of turnover margins. might as well flip a coin