My detailed expectations for NE @ New Orleans:

NE will be +2 in turnover ratio (or better)

 

Saints will be between 90-120  total rushing yards

 

Brady will throw for between 325-375 yrds

 

Brees will throw atleast 3 picks

 

NE to win by over 10.5 pts…

You do know the Saints defense leads the league in take aways and defensive scoring right?? Giants all over again IMO..

Depending on the odds on the MNF prop points; I would be willing to lay $100 to give an additional 13 points (above the current line) if I could get atleast +750 ($100 to win $750 with the Saints +12.5)... not saying that NE would cover that much tomorrow, but I know they would cover that amount atleast 2 of 7 games in this exact scenario, which would make it a profitable play (7 games played, don't cover 5 times = -$500, cover 2 times = + $1500..=+$1000)

Yep, but do you know that NE is 2 better in the +/- turnover catagory, and have played SUBSTANTIALLY better defenses..... NO has played no one worth talking about.... their 2 best wins were over Philly (lost to the Raiders, and just squeaked by the Skins), and the Giants....ummm... the Giants lol

They are +2?  Whoopii!  That doesn't tell the whole story.  Saints lead the league in takeaways, but they also are top 5 in giveaways, yet are still 10-0. 

Substantially better defenses? Substantially how?  With a team like the Saints, yards will not tell the whole story.  You do realize they gotten up so big on many opponents the backups came in right?  With the Saints D in prevent mode?  David Carr even came in at the end of the Giants game it was so out of hand.

Face it Renroh, you are betting based on a popular names and simply because its the "Patriots".  You don't know jack sh*t about the Saints.  Probably haven't seen a Saints game all year.

No Sir, it is not just me talking; I actually don't care that much about talking.  It is based solely on the fact that NO has played no one, and brees can't win against a real team...  and the Pats have faced much better defenses...  that is what I believe... make no mistake, this is not just my being a fan, because I hate the Pats, but I have to admit that they are just flat out a better team.

incidently, I welcome your 'comebacks' as I will post a thead to regurgitate these comments at the games end.... please... put it out there.

So I guess losing to the Broncos and Jets is losing to someone?  What better defenses have the Patriots faced?

I have to answer this in multiple replies, due to the size of the reply. 

The way I based that-can't imagine a better way to do it-is to look at each opponents overall defensive rating (in the NFL), add them togather, and divide them by games played:

Saints played (team/overall defensive rating): Detroit/31, Eagles/8, Bills /25, jets/5, Giants/2, Miami/19, Falcons/28, Panthers/11, Rams/29, Bucs/27, that equates 185 total/ 10 games = 18.5 ave defensive teams.

The Pats played (team/overall defensive rating): Bills/25, Jets/5, Falcons/28, Ravens/9, Broncos/7, Titans/26, Bucs/27, Dolphins/19, Colts/15, Jets/5, that equates 166/10 games = 16.6 average defensive rating.

 

reply #2:

Also, in looking at the common denominator teams played this season:

 

Atlanta: Both teams played on their home field, Pats won by 16, Saints won by 8, time of possession went to Pats 39:49 to Saints 33:44, Passing yards went to Saints 299 to Bradys 277 (note: in Bradys defense, the pats had a 3 score lead-unless there were 2 touchdowns and two 2 point conversions to take place..not likely due to the previous 3 ½ quarters yielded the Falcons only 1 TD and 1 FG), rushing yards went to the Pats 168 to 146. Saints 445 total yards, pats 445  equal

 

Jets: Saints won by 14, pat by 17, Saints 153 rush, pats 111, Saints 190 passing, Pats 299 pass, Time of possession: Saints 32:39, Pats 39:54 (using the most recent Pats/Jets b/c it is the most indicative of what team is playing now.  Saints total yards 343, Pats 410

 

Bucs: Saint won by 31, Pats by 28….Saints passing 187, pats 307…. Time of possession is not listed for the Saints….total yards Saints 270  Pats 414

reply #3:

The other common denominator team played was the Bills… Pats won 25-24, to the Saints 27-7, saints 222 rushing, pats only 73 rushing, passing 368 pats, only 156 passing saints (though I don’t think this says much b/c if the saints running game was going that well, why would they throw it), time of possession 37:08 pats, 33:34 saints… Also, this was Bradys first game played in a year…. Multiple reasons that this one means very little.  Saints total 378 yards…. Pats 441

 

In short, I am not talking just to talk.  The Pats faced better defensive teams.  The Pats-in the common denominator games-have had superior yards gained, and time of possession.  Brady was not Brady until a few games into the season.  I just really can’t understand how this all is not obvious…. The Pats are going to show the world that the Saints can’t stand up to the elite teams.  I think it is great what the Saints have done this season, but the reality will show itself in this one.

 

Also, in looking at the common denominator teams played this season:

 

Atlanta: Both teams played on their home field, Pats won by 16, Saints won by 8,    It was a Divisional game smarty wrong team to your point

No offense, but a grammar, and sentence structure class might help you get your point across properly; I really cannot understand what you are trying to say here, I tried reading it a few times, and I can only guess that you are making a point that the interdivision game makes the game more difficult on the Saints,...yes/no?... if so, then it is a 'push', because the Jets are interdivision rivals with the Pats.

stones and glass houses......

lol.. actually, I majored in communications in my undergrad. I understand that this is a sports betting site, and grammatical correctness is not of high importance, but being coherent is.  I was simply saying that I could not understand what he was trying to communicate, could you?

Why would you use the second Jets game when the Saints and Pats played the Jets within in two weeks of each other the first game?

Excellent question; and one that I would ask if I were reading this argument.. kudos.  I used this for two reasons; 1) Let's face it, Brady is now playing like Brady of old, but it took him the first games of the season to get going.  2) The Pats team that just played that game is going to be a closer indicator to the team the will take the field in New Orleans Monday evening.

Make no mistake, I am the last person to try to make the Pats look good, b/c I despise that team.  I just see this the way I see it.

Thanks for the question.

Cut your bs, please tell me what defenses are you talking about? Ravens,

that is all above. Scroll up... this disclaimer is focused on exactly your type... way too much time wasted on you...

New disclaimer:

I try to respond to any replies of people kind enough to read, and reply to a thread I post. I will be happy to answer any requests to justify my posts, any stats, conflicting opinions, or questions you may have.  I will only reply, or justify my opinon with multiple replies if you have viewable pick histories on wagerline at, that are above 50% accurate.  I am not interested in people’s stating that their history is 200-20-3, yet they have their wagerline pick history hidden.  Why would they purposely hide their pick history if they cap at such incredible success?  If a debate or difference of opinion ensues, well I am fine with that.  This is how we learn more by taking in other credible opinions.  I will not get into a debate, or put time into debating my position if I have no way of knowing if the other person’s opinion is credible/valuable or not.  They know, and we know that no one is going to go back and verify their ‘claims’, especially when we already know what we would find if we did.  I don’t have enough time to cap, play, watch, and study my games, and argue baseless points with losing cappers, I am sorry, but I just don’t have the time. 

 

Now I agree with the Brady part, but at the same time, this Jets team doesn't look anything like it did to start the season so I dont feel like that is a fair comparison.

I am trying to find an angle on this one and I just dont see it. It just looks like a shootout and the last team with the ball is going to win it.

bol to all everybody is getting all fired up 

Dude you say philly and then add they loss to the Raiders means nothing. Look at last week what happen to the Steelers they loss to Kansas City. You making that statement means absolutely nothing, you are a wanna be my friend. i hope you fall on your face with this game.

BIG DIFFERENCE KOKO11, NO ISN'T PLAYING NEARLY AS WELL NOW AS THEY WERE WHEN THEY FACED NYG SEVERAL WEEKS BACK.

@ renroh123.  You bring up some valid points HOWEVER According to your own numbers the Pats have faced 4 teams with a defensive ranking under 20 and they are 2-3 v.s. them.  indy/nyj (2x)/den/bal. Furthermore the only team the Pats have beaten this year on the road is Tampa Bay.
The Saints have beaten everyone they faced and are 5-0 v.s. teams with a defensive ranking of 20 or lower.

As this game is a pick or -1 I can't see even by your numbers an advantage for N.E. here.

I find your method interesting but I am not sure how you account for the variables.
 N.O. will be up for this game.
If their opponent was a lower tier opponent then maybe it could be a trap.
In my humble opinion those numbers mean nothing as they can be read both ways.
Again I am not bashing your method I just don't see why it works, as it appears to be all as to how you read the results.

GL BUT I AM ON THE OTHER SIDE WITH THIS ONE