mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 13

mt....shot you a PM..check and get back at me bro.

 Peace.

Covers site wasn't loading on my computer yesterday evening but here's the write-ups sorry about the inconvenience.

Dolphins -2.5 (-117) to win 40 units

Wow a 7-4 team is getting 3 points to a 3-8 team, looks like a gift doesn’t it.  Wrong.  The Dolphins are in a great spot here and have been playing some fantastic football since losing to Tim Tebow.  They abused the Bills, Redskins, and Chiefs, and came oh so close to beating the Giants and Cowboys on the road. 

One of the big reasons for the Phins success has been their improved defense.   They have the 7^th best run defense in the NFL and that’s huge considering that the Raiders rely a lot on their running game with Michael Bush.  They won’t be able to run it so Palmer will be forced to operate from a lot of 3^rd and longs.  Too bad for Palmer that his top wideouts of Ford and Moore are injured and Heyward-Bay is banged up.  Defensive backs Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have been damn good for Miami after a horrific first 6 games to the year.  They will shut down the Raiders in coverage and will allow Cam Wake, Dansby, Burnett and Co. to get some serious pressure on the QB. 

One the other side of the ball Matt Moore has found a comfort zone in this offense along with Reggie Bush.  The Fish are running the ball well.  This is big because the RAIDERS ARE THE WORST RUNNING DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE.  In addition, D-Lineman Jarvis Moss is out, Tommy Kelly is questionable and Richard Seymour will be playing but is banged up.  That’s huge because I think the Phins will control the line of scrimmage and will be able to run the ball and protect Matt Moore from an aggressive Raiders pass rush.  Another side note is that Rolando McClain the Raiders starting LB, got arrested so the Raiders will have to deal with that distraction and his absence.  The Raiders have a good pass D but Brandon Marshall should be able to get open.

The Dolphins want to keep winning after such a disgusting start to the year where they lost a number of close games to good teams.  The Dolphins haven’t played since November 24^th on Thanksgiving so they will have extra rest.  The Raiders have to fly out for an early game on the East Coast coming off of a physical game with the Bears and a potential look-ahead game against the defending champs at Lambeau next week.  Gimme the Phins here!

Giants +6 (-107) to win 40 units

Holy smokes I’m fading Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but you know what I think the Giants are in a great spot here and they are severely undervalued at this price because of their recent struggles.

The G-Men are still a good football team and I expect them to have a big performance here laying everything on the line with their season potentially in the balance.  The Giants defense has been called out after a pathetic performance at New Orleans on Monday night.  The D is welcoming the challenge:

"We have to figure out, at the end of the day, what's our purpose? What are we here for? Are we trying to be a playoff contending team or are we just going out there and going through the motions?"

—S Antrel Rolle, when asked during his weekly radio spot on WFAN 660 if there was a concern in the Giants' locker room if there was another collapse on the way.

"We were outplayed, outhustled," Fewell said. "They've played with more effort, more energy. We got outcoached. So for whatever reason, I can't explain that, I don't think any of those guys can explain that either. We prepared well. We didn't perform well - bottom line."

He said, "We look forward to the opportunity to play these guys. We're going to show up and we're going to play on Sunday."

Meanwhile Rodgers, the NFC's Offensive Player of the Month, will need to brace himself for what's going to be an angry and determined Giants defense.

Concluded Fewell, "We're going to get to the quarterback. Period. We're going to get it done. I'm going to coach better and they're going to play better."

The Giants are in tough against a ridiculously good Packers offense, but one thing the Packers don’t do well and don’t attempt enough is running the football.  The Packers can tend to get pass happy and why not they have the best QB in the game.  The Giants have a great pass rush and with the Packers throwing the ball a lot I fully expect their defense to play big here and pressure the quarterback.  Another key thing to point out is that Michael Boley, their best LB who was out for the Saints game will be back for this game.  With their defensive leader back I think they’ll do well.

On the other side of the ball what makes this a good play is that Eli Manning is going to be able to put up some points to pressure the Packers.  Nicks and Cruz should be able to get open against a mediocre Packers secondary.  THE GIANTS ALSO GET A HUGE BOOST TO THEIR OFFENSE AS AHMAN BRADSHAW IS BACK.  This is huge because Bradshaw has had a solid year running the ball unlike the useless Brandon Jacobs.  Bradshaw can also catch out of the back field so I fully expect some production ESPECIALLY CAUSE THE PACKERS ARE MISSING DESMOND BISHOP AND AJ HAWKS, 2 OF THEIR BETTER RUN STOPPING LINEBACKERS.

This high of a line is a joke.  An angry Giants team with a defense that has been called out and a potent offense should not be 6 point dogs at home to the Pack.   

Bears -7 (-104) to win 30 units

I bet against the Bears last week and won, but I like them here.  I watched a lot of the Raiders-Bears game last week and Caleb Hanie, QB, looked pretty solid after the 1^st quarter.  He had good pocket presence, could scramble, and made some nice throws.  The Bears now face a KC defense that has played well the last 2 weeks.  KC still believed it had a shot at the playoffs before the Pitt game.  They threw the kitchen sink versus Pitt holding them to only 13 points.  The week before that Crennel had a solid gameplan against Brady for the 1^st half on Monday Night Football.  After 2 primetime games and 2 losses I think they won’t have enough in the reserves to compete with a hungry Bears team needing wins to make it to the playoffs.  The Cheifs are a poor 26^th versus the pass and last in the league in the sacks department.  Hanie should have time and gaps to throw the ball against a worn-down defense after looking solid in the Black Hole in Oakland.  The Bears should be able to get their ground game going here with Barber and Forte, as I expect more balanced play-calling from Mike Martz.

On the other side of the ball all I gotta say is it’s Tyler Palko versus the Bears vaunted defense.  Palko sucks a big one and will have no confidence after splitting first team reps with Kyle Orton, as he knows he’s gonna be replaced after this week.  Even if Orton subs into the game he doesn’t know the play book well enough and will get ripped apart by his former team that will know some of his tendencies.  The Chiefs can’t run so that means a lot of 3^rd and longs against a reborn Julius Peppers.  The Chiefs have a big threat in wideout Dwayne Bowe.  Unfortunately, Charles Tillman  will shut him down likes he’s down to the likes of Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson. 

The Bears force a lot of turnovers and Palko donates a lot of them.  In rainy Chicago that sounds like a great combination to take the Bears at the key number of -7.

GL

NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)

NFL Regular Season-to-date: 39-34-1 (+153.77 units)

Futures:

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units

49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units

Quote Originally Posted by spork:

Not on either of those myself but it looks like good stuff dude. best of luck. 

thanks man

Quote Originally Posted by AK415:

with you on chic-7, but I'm leaning oakland moneyline

hope we hit Chicago

Fantastic write-up once again my friend I really like the Dolphins as well- D will shut down the banged up Raiders wideouts and they will run the ball on Oak leading to a lot of 3rd and shorts plus they are in a much better scheduling spot.

Thanks for stopping by BC bro!   I thought Hanie looked good last game in the 2nd half and I thought that the Chiefs D would be worn down after throwing the sink at Pitt.

Forte just got injured so imma lil worried.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Like the two picks buddy, only ones I like on the whole card.

Keep up the great work and let's get the money.

You too man hoping for a nice week, as this week's card was really tough to choose from a number of games

Quote Originally Posted by No_Contest:

Got a good feeling about your plays this week(week 13) and its not the Hennessy talking either! lol GL MT

hope so man haha Bears gotta step it up on O and the Fish gotta stop kicking FGs they are dominating the Raiders so far

Quote Originally Posted by Orangemen44:

The more and more i look at it the more i like Chicago. I think im going to add them

Bears D is playing well so far but their O-Line has been really shaky so far hope they get it going