mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 10

Nice glad to see you're leaning in a similar direction- the Giants won't be able to run it tomorrow, lotta 3rd and longs and with their wideouts banged up in Nicks and Manningham they won't be able get open as well as they usually do- the Niners have a good pass rush so they will be ready for the pass and their secondary is still solid enough as they did fine against the Eagles and Lions this year- I think the Giants are in a horrific spot as they are still in euphoria over the Pats win and what I've noticed is that teams that have beaten the Pats this year have been horrific the following game (Bills L at Cincy, Pitt loss to Balty) plus the crowd at Candlestick will be crazy in this statement game- the -3.5 line is a huge factor as well as they are really baiting in Giants money yet it's not moving

Thanks buddy- I'm guessing you're talking about the Ravens play- I actually decided to hedge it as I can see a nice TD by T-Jax to moose the spread- Ravens ML is a really good play but there's nothing to tease it with

YES SIR!  Love the matchups and situations for this play- I'm going to start working on the write-ups in about 30 minutes just tidying some things up right now and will have the reasoning up in an hour and a half or so

Quote Originally Posted by Toocrafty:

Makes me feel good about my SF pick.

love Batman the one hero I always watch when I come across it doesn't matter how old I am- Batman we are gonna "POW" the Giants with our POW (play of the week) haha

Quote Originally Posted by svensk:

  GL SIR      SF

lets get it Cali

49ers -3.5 (-107) to win 45 units

There are a lot of reason I like the Niners here.  First off the Giants are in a horrible scheduling spot here.  They put a ton of energy into their victory over the Patriots.  It was a dramatic victory as well as the Giants pretty much reinacted their Super Bowl comeback win over the Pats.  The Giants players have still been taking about that game on TV networks.  The Giants now have to fly West Coast to San Fran to take on a tough Niners team knowing that the following week they got a huge divisional Sunday Night Football game on the East Coast home to the Eagles.  The Giants didn’t play well against the Arizona in one of their trips to the West Coast already this season.  Like I said last week in the Steelers-Ravens game it is very difficult to have two performances in a row after putting so much into one game.  This season teams that have beaten the Pats haven’t done anything the next week (Bills losing to Cincy, Steelers losing to Balty J)  This is a big statement game for the 49ers in front of what should be a raucous crowd at Candlestick to show that they are a legitimate contender. 

On top of this being a difficult spot for the Giants the Vegas line is very strong to San Fran.  Vegas knows that everyone is pretty high on the Giants after beating the Pats, but by opening the line at -3.5 they are trying very hard at sucking in money on the Giants by giving bettors the hook.  The bait has been working since the public is all over the Giants yet the line hasn’t moved anywhere but up towards -4 so the sharps are hammering the Niners with big money.

Now I would never make a bet based on pure Vegas and scheduling angles.  There also has to matchups in the game to take a team and there are a lot in this game.  Let’s look at how the Giants are gonna move the chains against the Niners.  The Giants have a horrible running game ranked 3^rd last going up against the 4^th best run D in the league.  Bradshaw is out for the GMen and this is bad cause Jacobs hasn’t done jack all year.  Jacobs is a big back but the Niners excel against big backs as the have a big front 7, plus Jacobs is not a threat in the passing game.  This is gonna lead to a lot of 3^rd and longs in the passing game for the Giants.  The Niners have a top 10 pass rush and will be able to zero in on the pass cause the Giants won’t be able to run the ball.  The 49ers have a solid secondary and they can shut down the Giants since NICKS AND MANNINGHAM ARE BOTH BANGED UP AND GAME-TIME DECISIONS AND SLOT WIDEOUT JERNIGAN IS OUT.  This is big cause the Giants wideouts won’t get their usual separation.  Defensive backs on the Niners in Culliver and Rogers have been very solid against the pass and I mean the Niners have been able to contain high-octane offense in Detroit and Philly this year on the road.  The Giants love using Tight End Ballard but he’s gonna be shut down by Patrick Willis who has been solid against the pass.

On the other side of the ball the Niners will do fine against this Giants D.  Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have been running the ball well and should do well against a Giants defense that is ranked a pathetic 25^th against the run.  This will lead to a lot of 3^rd and shorts and the Alex Smith has done well under Harbaugh and the confidence he’s instilled in him.  The Giants have a very pedestrian pass coverage so Smith should do well.  The key will be the Niners O-Line’s ability to block the Giants tremendous pass rush.  The Niners have protected Smith well since the Eagles game and with the ground game and Giants team off of a big win I and potentially being drained I think they’ll be fine.

The Niners have beaten some good teams in the Eagles, Lions, Bengals, and Bucs so they’ll be confident in knowing they can beat a team like the Giants.  Taking my Niners who are undefeated against the spread so why fix it if it ain’t broke.

Bears -3 (-101) to win 35 units

DA BEARSSSSSSSSSS have been playing some great football since their 2-3 start.  This is a must win for them, as they can tie the Lions for the division this week with a win or be 3 games out by losing the tiebreaker and likely missing the playoffs.  The Bears are going to be really pissed off and their hungry vets will want to avenge their Monday Night defeat to the Lions a couple weeks back.  At that time of year the Lions caught the Bears playing probably their worst football of the year.  Since then the Bears have really improved upon many of their weaknesses.  I know the Bears are on shorter rest and the Lions are off a bye but the Bears are rolling while the Lions have not looked all that impressive of late.  Schwartz is not an amazing game planner IMO so the added time won’t be a huge deal that people are making it out to be.

On offense the Bears offensive line has been terrific the past couple of games.  THE BEARS GAVE UP 0 YES 0 SACKS TO THE EAGLES DEFENSIVE LINE FEATURING JASON BABIN AND TRENT COLE, the BEARS GAVE UP 1 SACK TO THE SOLID VIKINGS D-LINE FEATURING JARED ALLEN, ROBSON, AND WILLIAMS, and they gave up only 2 sacks to the Buccaneers.  Detroit’s defense relies on its defensive line getting pressure to the quarterback.  With the new found O-Line success, Mike Martz’s commitment to the run and Jay Cutler being more active in the pocket, having better body language and playing out of his mind I think the Bears will do fine tomorrow.  The Bears have an elite running attack as well.  The Lions are a pathetic 2^nd last against the run so the Bears and their 8^th ranked rushing attack will get theirs allowing Cutler to work in short yardage.  The return of Earl Bennett has been huge for Cutler as he and Williams have improved and will be needed against a stingy Detroit secondary.

On D the Bears were embarrassed by the Lions giving up big yardage plays against the run and pass.  This lead to them releasing two veteran safeties after that game.  Since then their rookies have been solid and Charles Tillman has the physical presence to match up with the Lions passing attack.  Julius Peppers looked healthy and the rest of the Bears line rushed Vick well on Monday.  I think Stafford is going to have a tougher time finding his targets as he will be without running back Jahvid Best.  The Bears will shut down the run game and be able to focus on the past.

The Bears are the better team here and I think their veterans are going to exact their revenge on the “indoor-Lions” on the muddy, rainy, and beat up Soldier Field turf.

Chiefs -3 (-107) to win 27.5 units

The Chiefs are really undervalued here after laying a complete egg against the Dolphins.  Last week the Chiefs were in a tough spot after huge wins over the Raiders and Chargers they had a short week and had a tough time getting up for the winless Dolphins.  Now they play the HUGE FRAUD IN THE DENVER BRONCOS.  Tebow hasn’t done much and had to use some miracle comebacks against the Dolphins and Raiders where he didn’t even throw the ball that much.  This week, that kids training-wheel offense that the Broncos run isn’t going to work against a great defensive mind of Romeo Crennel, Chiefs defensive coordinator.

What nobody can argue with, however, is that the Broncos have won two of three with Tebow as the starter and remain very much in contention in the league’s only division in which no team entered Week 10 with a winning record.

“It’s crazy because if we were in the AFC North, none of this would be going on and we wouldn’t be having a discussion about being one game out,” running back Willis McGahee(notes) said.

The Broncos sound surprised that they are in contention for the AFC West title and I agree.  I think they are gonna get spanked in a tough environment in Arrowhead against an angry and better Chiefs squad who will want redemption after getting blown out last week.  The Chiefs are a resilient group and have been blown out in a couple games this year before rebounding so they should be fine knowing that they can get a share of this wide open division lead after the Raiders beat the Chargers.

The Chiefs have very good linebackers and can shut down the Broncos running attack.  Hali, Johnson, and Belcher are athletic and can bring Tebow down.  The Chiefs have a good secondary with Flowers and Carr who can shut down the Broncos mediocre wide receivers.  I’d love to see Tebow throw against this defense,as Crennel will have something up his sleeve for this disgusting offensive attack.

On offense Matt Cassel had been throwing it well before the Dolphins game and should be able to sling it against this brutal Broncos secondary who will probably get eaten alive by their secondary receivers.  Lot of value on the Chiefs here as I see no reason as to how the books think that the Broncos are at the same level after a couple fluke victories against the Dolphins and Raiders.

Vikings – Packers Under 51 (-116) to win 20 units

I really like this Monday Night total which opened up at 51.5 and is reversing all the way down to 50.5 even with the public slamming the Over.  The Vikings and Packers met up a couple weeks ago and lit up the scoreboard.  The Packers were probably caught a little off guard with Ponder making his QB debut for the Vikings.  The Packers defense is being criticized by ESPN and they will play with a lot of pride at home here.  Dom Capers will be far more prepared for the Vikings rookie and will not let them beat them badly again and will focus almost all their attention on shutting down A Pete.  Also the Packers are struggling on D but still have the core that did so well on their way to winning the Super Bowl.

The Vikings are a good defense as well and are coming off of a BYE.  You can be sure that they are doing all they can to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.  The Vikings have an elite pass rush ranked 4^th in sacks against a decent Packers O-Line.  The Vikings will pressure Rodgers here and unlike in the last game they will have their best defensive back in Winfield back as well as safety Sanford so passing the ball shouldn’t be as easy for GB.  The Vikings are also a terrific 5^th against the run so they won’t let Starks run on em again.  This game sets up nicely for an Under IMO.

Buccaneers +4 (-111) to win 26.5 units

One of the keys to having success in betting is to buy low on good teams when the public perceptions of them are really low.  This is the case this week with the Buccaneers.  This line is a complete joke, it’s saying that the Texans would be -10 at home to the Bucs when the Saints were only -8.5 to them last week.  Last time I checked the Saints beat the Texans this year so the Texans are completely overvalued after beating up on some bad teams in the Jaguars and the Browns.  The Texans are a good team but their schedule hasn’t been the hardest.  The Buccaneers are 4-4 and haven’t looked good, but you what when you have to play the Saints twice, Falcons, Lions, Bears, 49ers, and Vikings on the road any team can look bad.  At home the Bucs are a different team with a solid 3-1 record with impressive wins over the Saints and Falcons.

The Buccaneers are a good team and can hang with the best of em as seen in some of their games last year.  Their season is pretty much on the line at 4-4 here and need a win to hang in the division race.  The Texans just blew out 2 opponents and have a BYE to get rested after this so I think they’ll be a little fat and happy here. 

The Bucs are going to give the Texans some matchup problems tomorrow.  One key injury for the Houston Texans defense that has not been talked about much is safety Danieal Manning.  His injury hasn’t been talked about because the Texans have played some horrible Quarterbacks with no deep threats in Colt McCoy and Blaine Gabbert.  The Buccaneers on the other hand love to throw deep.  Freeman has a cannon of an arm and almost always hits receivers Benn, Parker, and Briscoe.  It’s huge that the Bucs best receiver Mike Williams is playing since Jonathan Joseph will have to cover him.  This is key since the other Houston DB’s are not good and no Manning Tampa’s deep threats who almost always have a catch of more than 30 yards in all of their games can burn em.  Another big player returning from injury for Tampa is Offensive Lineman Zuttah.  The Bucs have had their 5 starting offensive lineman together for only one game this season and that was a couple weeks ago against the Saints where they stomped them 26-20.  Blount should do much better with an increased workload this week after coming back last week.  The Texans won’t be able to zero-in on the run with the deep threats Tampa possesses.  Tampa protects the QB well so they can nullify Houston’s pass rush.

On defense the Bucs will get a huge added boost with the signing of Haynesworth.  Haynesworth returns to a 4-3 system with which he is familiar with and has been practicing well.  Just his signing alone has given the young Bucs some star power and significance with the media.  It’s gonna be a major jolt in their system and I think they can slow down Arian Foster somewhat because they won’t have to worry about Andre Johnson who is out for this matchup.  Talib, Barber, and Tarnard Jackson can hold the fort in the secondary.  Tampa has all the value, will have their juices flowing and can come out victorious here.

GL

Bears to win NFC Championship Future (+2700) to win 200 units- LOCKED IN ON 5DIMES

You might laugh when you first see this play but I really like the make-up of this Bears team and at this price there’s plenty of value on the Bears.  The Bears know how to win big games and they have improved upon their weaknesses.  I think the Bears can beat the Packers down the road as their D always gives Rodgers a tough time, only allowing maybe 20 points unlike other teams who give up 35 to him.  Jay Cutler is throwing the ball well and is being protected so they can score on a shotty Packers Defense and Secondary.  The 49ers are good but they have never been to the playoffs.  The Saints can’t win on the road and don’t have a good secondary.  The Saints beat the Bears when they were having pass-protection issues and bad play calling earlier in the year.  The Giants are overrated after the schedule they have played.  The Falcons and Buccaneers already got smoked by the Bears.  The Bears have beaten the Eagles 2/2 times the last 2 years and Tony Romo hasn’t won a big game in his life so the Bears can beat the Cowboys.   I think the Bears are much better than the Lions as you can see from my write-up in that matchup.

The Bears have a cupcake schedule after this game and I think that they can finish the season 5th since the Packers will win the division more than likely.   The Bears would likely then play the Cowboys/Giants/Eagles and I don't think any of those teams are that good.  In the 2nd Round they would likely have to beat the Packers, and I think they can win in the Superdome as they will be well prepared after having already played their this year and they can also beat SF in Candlestick. So why not give this future a shot especially when I think of the Bears as the 2^nd best team in the NFC.

NFL Regular Season-to-date: 28-24-0 (+76.26 units)

Futures:

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units

49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units

let's get that paper man!

Quote Originally Posted by NoFumbles:

Love the insights mtbaker! Let's get that paper! 

thanks buddy- and thank you Ray Lewis for helping me hit my big play last week!