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****MNF PICK & WRITE UP****9/14

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:

i kno wut ur talkin bout...it was like the colts or pitts couple years ago when they were 0-4 in preseason and won the superbowl that year...yea..the bills are DEFINATELY not that kind of team. nobody gives a fiduck bout ur bets for college football and basketball. those r TOTTALLY 2 DIF MARKETS FOR BETTING. and ur losing mad credability rite now saying that nonsense ur mouth is spraying

WHAT NONSENSE AM I SPRAYING? ALL I EVER STATED IS THAT THE BILLS WILL COVER TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE REASONS I STATED. BILLS HAVE SOME EXPLOSIVE GUYS ON OFFENSE THAT CAN MAKE BIG PLAYS, PATS D IS A QUESTION MARK, BRADY IS A QUESTION MARK. YOU DONT KNOW HOW THIS GUY WILL COME OUT AND PLAY TONIGHT AFTER ALL HE'S BEEN THROUGH. CRAZIER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

 
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Posted: #52
NoNeed- You brought up the games that the fav won and didn't cover, but only brought up the NY/Wash divisional game.
 
Indy/Jax, NY/Wash- both Division games, just like NE/Buff and SD/Oak!!!
 
Ten/Pitt also had a past from last yr reg season game.
 
In other words, these are games with ties, just like tonight. Can't really blame a guy fro taking a home dog, on primetime TV, in conference.
 
GL both of you guy
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Maestro664:

classic Jayhawker -using too little of information to come to overall solution - Go back to last year and run same numbers - double digit dogs were 17-4 ats and lost 20 of the 21 games - you cannot run low grade stats plans on a complex problem. They might win both games by 30 but has nothing to do with your breakdown.
 
WOW 

 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Maestro664:

classic Jayhawker -using too little of information to come to overall solution - Go back to last year and run same numbers - double digit dogs were 17-4 ats and lost 20 of the 21 games - you cannot run low grade stats plans on a complex problem. They might win both games by 30 but has nothing to do with your breakdown.
 
WOW 


Monday night Double digit dogs
5-3 ATS, 1-7 SU

day='Monday' and site=home and line>=10
SU: 1-7-0 (-10.8)

ATS: 5-3-0 (1.1) avg line: 11.9











O/U: 4-4-0 (-1.6) avg total: 45.1

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Maestro664:

classic Jayhawker -using too little of information to come to overall solution - Go back to last year and run same numbers - double digit dogs were 17-4 ats and lost 20 of the 21 games - you cannot run low grade stats plans on a complex problem. They might win both games by 30 but has nothing to do with your breakdown.
 
WOW 

WOW

 

So you used 1 year of analysis and I am using to little of information. Amazing.

And a Jayhawker was somone who taxed your ass for traveling west in the olden days. So yes, I am a classic Jayhawker because Ima Tax that Ass!

I guess that is what you get for going to a Party School

 
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Posted: #57
I'm not saying that Buffalo can't cover an 11.5 point spread-- its MNF, TO adds a playmaking threat this team has desperately needed and I don't think Fred Jackson will be that significant of a drop-off from Marshawn, but there is no chance that Buffalo wins this game straight up.  This game is being played in NE on Monday Night to open up the season, the Bills haven't made teh playoffs in almost a decade (Music City Miracle I believe was the last time) and last time Brady was healthy this team didn't lose in the regular season.  I'm laying off this spread but this game is going over.

38-21 Pats
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Maestro664:

classic Jayhawker -using too little of information to come to overall solution - Go back to last year and run same numbers - double digit dogs were 17-4 ats and lost 20 of the 21 games - you cannot run low grade stats plans on a complex problem. They might win both games by 30 but has nothing to do with your breakdown.
 
WOW 


NO and Bal were favored by double digits yesterday and covered.
 
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Posted: #59
WOW is the undisputed king of ugly underdogs in basketball and Football
When he lays the chalk, not so good......
gl WOW, your on the right side tonight.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by DrCizZee:

I'm not saying that Buffalo can't cover an 11.5 point spread-- its MNF, TO adds a playmaking threat this team has desperately needed and I don't think Fred Jackson will be that significant of a drop-off from Marshawn, but there is no chance that Buffalo wins this game straight up.  This game is being played in NE on Monday Night to open up the season, the Bills haven't made teh playoffs in almost a decade (Music City Miracle I believe was the last time) and last time Brady was healthy this team didn't lose in the regular season.  I'm laying off this spread but this game is going over.

38-21 Pats


Under...look at my post on the first page for reasoning
 
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Posted: #61

lets all stop bickering bout this and come bak after the game is over.

 
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Posted: #62
Gambling is like life, the more experience you have, the better you do. remember this people and you will always have perspective.
 
C U 2 Nite
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Creepa:



Under...look at my post on the first page for reasoning


I read your reasoning and I respect your opinion however disagree.  This isn't the type of matchup where either coach is going to come out and try and control the clock.  This is going to be two teams lining up in shotgun most of the game and airing it out.  Neither team has the defensive firepower to shut down their opponent and I see this being a high scoring game from start to finish.
 
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Posted: #64
Nice write up.....Pats win, don't know if they cover, got them -3.5 in a teaser.....my other side won already. Too many points for my taste....same with the Chargers.
 
PATS -3.5   Good enough I hope
 
BOL
 
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Posted: #65
wow
 
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Posted: #66
If age and experience are the call then if you are not 40 yet just quit. I am well over 40 and have worked in the sportsbooks as well as the street books - I am a believer in numbers and the fact that history does repeat itself - age has nothing to do with it - I know some young cappers and numbers guys that blow away the old dudes, but I will take wisdom over eagerness anyday.
 
Look at the NFL history of the double digit dog - and you could play only them over time and live quite well.  1 year in last 20 did the double digit fav cover more than the double digit dog.
 
2007 Pats year and it was still close - just not with the NE boys.
 
So follow whatever logic you must, the Maestro and the numbers will be rolling along.   
 
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Posted: #67
WOW, Why do you feel the need to explain your plays to nay-sayers.  Post your plays, sit back and enjoy the game.
 
BOL,
Ocean808
 
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Posted: #68
i'm stay away from this game, both teams gave gained and lost some players. brady hasn't played a regular season game in a while. bills got TO... these are two very different teams from last year, i wanna see how pats play tonight, if they are the same old pats that everyone knows
 
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Posted: #69
GL
 
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Posted: #70
gl WOW
 
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Posted: #71
gl wow
 
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Posted: #72
BOL
 
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Posted: #73
GL on the play WOW---I'm stickin with some chalk and goin SD..hope the Bills pull it out for ya.
 
usikbastard- shut the f up bro...WOW is as solid as anyone on here and I'll take his insight to any game he wants to give it
 
I like what Ron_Chains said--when WOW takes points he is scary good
 
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Posted: #74
WOW - much respect and appreciation for the in the past. I got the Pats rolling the Buffs by two TDs tonight - so gotta pass but I just lowered my bet knowing you are on the other side
 
 
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Posted: #75
[Quote: Originally Posted by usikbasterd]
dude EVER SINCE U CAME HERE?? i dont kno wut picks uve given since u JOINED IN JAN 2009 AND THIS IS WEEK 1 OF THE 2009 SEASON...maybe u had a good roll in other sports but lets be realistic here this is probably like ur 2nd bet of the year for the NFL...ill give u the benefit of the doubt that u gave a pick for last seasons superbowl

[/Quote

With Or Without.....your damn ass opinion. The guys solid!!!

 

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