Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
(**WARNING** Take extreme caution tailing in this game as I am a Homer at heart in this one!)
There is not much at all that points to Atlanta even staying remotely close in this game. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. After the way New Orleans came from behind last week like they did it just proved to me that they can win and blow out teams from leading all the way through or having to come from far behind. I mean, if Brees can turn the ball over four times and still win, is there any way to stop him? The Saints are well balanced on Offense and that I believe is their biggest improvement this year and their secret to winning like they are. Their defense is returning interceptions for scores left and right and also forcing turnovers galore. Already the Saints have recorded five defensive TDs. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The Falcons have been hard hit by injuries, especially in the offensive backfield and along the defensive line. Jerious Norwood, who backs up Michael Turner at tailback, is expected to miss a second straight game because of a hip flexor. Jason Snelling, who filled Norwood’s backup spot last week and responded with 68 yards on seven carries against the Cowboys, has been limited this week because of a hamstring injury and may not play. Fullback Ovie Mughelli has also been limited at practice this week after missing the previous two games with a calf injury. As for the defensive line, starters John Abraham (foot), Jonathan Babineaux (ankle) and Thomas Johnson (calf) are all listed as questionable. Kroy Biermann was also added to the injury report late in the week because of a neck injury. Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. The Saints' biggest immediate challenge may be getting accustomed to their own success. With Carolina and Tampa Bay struggling, Atlanta (4-2) seems like the Saints' primary threat, and the Falcons will be eager to rebound from Sunday's disappointing 37-21 loss at Dallas. The Falcons' running game has been slowed, with Turner averaging 3.4 yards per carry - more than a yard less than last season, when he ranked second in the NFL with 1,699 rushing yards. Matt Ryan has also thrown four interceptions in the last two contests, the most in any two-game stretch in his young career.
So you see and can agree, like I said in my opening statement, that there is absolutely nothing that points towards Atlanta staying close in this one. The wagering public absolutely love teams that score lots of points and you make this game the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. And, that's exactly why I am going with my Birds tonight. Just TOOOOO many people on the Saints. Both the public and a LOT of my fellow cappers. I'm not saying there is no chance for Atlanta tonight. The Falcons can cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied. Hey, you don't want to ignore some of the weapons Ryan works with, particularly tight end Tony Gonzalez (27 catches for 304 yards) and wide receiver Roddy White (435 yards). The Falcons have managed to protect Ryan well also; he was sacked four times by Dallas last week but only twice otherwise. They have do excellent balance on offense behind Ryan (11 TDs, 6 picks), RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White and newcomer 33-year old TE Tony Gonzalez. TE Gonzalez had 73 and 71 receiving yards in the first two games, leading the team each time, and 55 yards in an impressive 45-10 win at San Francisco.
If Atlanta goes down in this very heated rivalry, they're going down swinging. When Michael Turner has at least 19 carries, his teams are 14-1 and John Abraham has 6.5 sacks in eight Monday night games. The Saints had trouble containing Ryan last season, when he threw for 563 yards in two meetings. Tonight it's going to be a matter of outscoring the Saints. The Falcons will have to score and score and score some more. If it's fourth-and-short, they better go for it. They better score touchdowns and not field goals. A ball control game certainly would help, so getting Michael Turner and that running game going is key tonight. Look, these teams are huge division rivals. You got to believe that Atlanta is going to be super fired up tonight coming off that tough road loss to the Cowboys. Tonight they have a chance to redeem theirselves and with a win they will not be too far back in the division. Ryan is 11-3 in his career in games played indoors. A few trends to consider are when playing in November, the Birds are 6-4, when playing on turf are 7-3 and after being outgained they are 7-3. New Orleans most recently when playing in November are 5-5 and when playing within the division are 5-5. Atlanta is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New Orleans. Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games. Look for Atlanta to show up in a big way despite all the negatives metioned!
The "over" continues to dominate Monday Night Football, going on a 7-1 run to begin the season, and 23 of the last 28 since the beginning of 2008. New Orleans is virtually unstoppable at home as they have cashed winning Over the Total tickets at a (13-3) ATS rate of late. The "over" is on streaks of 5-1 against the NFC, 8-3 in Week 8, 10-4 after a non-cover and 10-3 after a straight-up loss. The "over" is 18-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (7-1 this year). Both of these teams are built for playing indoors and both should get their points.
So my plays are:
2* Atlanta Falcons +12
2* Atlanta/New Orleans OVER 55
2* 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser: Atlanta +19, OVER 48