MNF - Jags / Bills and Commanders / Bengals...

I get asked this a lot...  So I am going to take the time on a less busy Tuesday afternoon to answer completely...

I think the term "bankroll" is actually totally a misnomer in most cases.  I used to think bankrolls were a real thing.  But do people actually allocate a bankroll and then stop if they lose it?  Do they actually stake based on that bankroll?  I am pretty sure that nobody does this in practice.  How long do you wait once you lose this bankroll?  I dont know.  

I prefer to think of staking in terms of goals.  Have you ever been to a financial advisor?  The first thing they will ask you before they advise anything is WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS.  If you say "my goal is to double my money this year", his advice is going to be much different than if you say "my goal is to draw secure income without any risk".  So what is your goal in sportsbetting?  You have to define that before you can seriously lay out a staking plan.

A couple of weeks ago there was a thread here and it was something like "I want to take 1k to 10k in the next month".  Then it was followed by the typical "bet 2% per unit" or whatever advice.  That is not the right answer.  The answer for that goal is some hyper aggressive staking plan so that 10k is actually in play.

So for you to ask if betting 2% of a mythical bankroll per unit is the right move....   You can see how I cant even begin to answer the question you asked.  What I can answer is more that when you define your goal, you can back your way in to unit sizes - whether or not you actually have what most people have come to define as a bankroll.

If I want to win $25 a season, and my expected handicapping rate is 55%, and I expect to pick 100 games this NFL season, and my expecting vig rate is -105 - then I can easily back in my staking size per unit ($3.50 per unit).

Make sense?  Hopefully it does.  I am not trying to be deliberately obtuse with an over complicated response - actually the opposite - I am trying to provide the only possible answer to your question - and that has to do with your goals, and some expectations only you can provide.

Explanation ($3.50×55)-($3.50×1.05×45) = $27.125

@vanzack

 Thats a great answer. Ive had the same discussion with people that want to play poker seriously after they find out about bankroll as everyone that knows me knows ive been playing for 25 years. I dont play exclusively poker for a living, its a side business. I ask them if they are wanting to do that too or if they just want to have fun and hope they win? Its the same for sportsbetting. If you still work a full time job or have full time income you dont need to worry about bankroll rules the same. I work full time so my poker and sports betting bankroll and unit allocation is more aggressive than a full time poker or sports professional bc i could replace it all, but still conservative enough to greatly reduce the chances of my actually having to replace it all. And if I do have a bad run I will just play lower stakes and bet smaller amounts so realistically im never going to have to contribute any more of my regular income to my bankroll anyway. 

This is great.

The key is your analysis of the "bankroll". You articulate it very well.

If your bankroll can be replaced immediately upon exhaustion...  Is it really a bankroll in the same sense as someone who has no more money after their bankroll and doesnt have income?

Not a flex in any way...  I am sure lots of people in the same boat - but I don't ever consider bankroll because there is no amount I would ever bet that I couldn't replace.  That just means I would never bet an amount that would endanger my overall net worth - so bankroll really has no meaning to me - as I am sure for a lot of others.  So how can you talk staking in terms of bankroll when bankroll really doesnt make sense?  It has to be goal driven.  Thats the only answer.

I appreciate the feedback, from all of you. I hadn’t really thought of a tangible goal, as you can tell by my post count I’m new to the gig.

Your numbers of 100 bets a year and 55%/-105 seam to be a reasonable baseline. That said a 9 unit margin per season (rounded) sounds plausible. 

It does seem like a lot of time to such a menial return lol. It seems a decent goal to 1.5x a bankroll in a season and give 10% to humane shelter- so I’d hafta bump my units up to 7%

~9x7% -> 53% (+10%) 
*apologize for the symbols, using an iPhone.

One observation I do have is last year you posted some 50+ unit margin, I know you don’t take vig into account on that number but at a -105, my 9x doesn’t align.

Did you run a lot higher than 55% or make a lot more bets than 100? 

dang, right on...congrats

Been noticing that VZ doesn't do well on prime games...but execellent on Sunday 10\1pm.

@boyersj

 One thing to understand about sports betting (and you may already) is that to make any significant gains you will have to risk a large amount of money over the course of the season to achieve that. If you have a realistic plan/expectation you will realize that, in the words of VZ, this is a marathon and not a sprint.

To give you an example somebody that I know (wink wink)gambled around $100k last football season and in the end was up about $8k. This to me is a success. But these are the types of expectations you should have. It’s not easy to win enough to beat the vig and also make a decent profit. Pay attention to Van, he will talk about juice/vig many times over the season.

Funny kind of story- I use a Sportsbook that is local to me (actually an OTB) that has kiosks to place your bets and you cash out at the window. I got to know the girls at the window very well and one week last year I went up to the window with about $4k worth of “winners”. The girl says something along the lines of “wow, nice job.” I replied to her “I’m down $3.91.” We both laughed and I think she finally realized that the weeks that I tipped her were the weeks I had won. 

When I first started gambling I would go to the casino on my days off when work was slow in the winter. I had a goal to make a days pay which was about $200 at the time. I had a budget and when it was gone I went home, but there were days when I would go back and forth from the blackjack to the craps table for 8 hours to reach that goal. It was a grind but I knew that I had to be careful because I was in a place that could eat me alive. Set your expectations low and be happy when you achieve them.

I guess the moral of the story is that sports betting isn’t like playing the powerball. It’s more like panning for gold. If you’re any good at it and you put in a lot of effort you might get a few flakes from time to time. Good luck 

But boy I’m actually hoping to see another quarterback in JAX next year and what in the world is wrong with the bengals I mean they are supposed to be a potential contender!