Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless.
MNF - Giants / Steelers...
@vanzack Ok, lets talk strictly football The Giants score TD's on 11.8% of their drives. The Steelers give up Td's about 14.1% of their drives. The Giants in the 4th Quarter of games have scored an average of 3 points The Giants haven't scored a Touchdown in the 4th quarter all year on Offense ALL SEASON. A block FG TD yes, no offense TD. So, why would I expect them to do so against the number 2 rated defense? Daboll is awesome at preparing for a game, but it wears off quickly, his in game adjustments suck. Tomlin on the other hand, is perhaps the best HC at in game adjustments.
@vanzack Ok, lets talk strictly football The Giants score TD's on 11.8% of their drives. The Steelers give up Td's about 14.1% of their drives. The Giants in the 4th Quarter of games have scored an average of 3 points The Giants haven't scored a Touchdown in the 4th quarter all year on Offense ALL SEASON. A block FG TD yes, no offense TD. So, why would I expect them to do so against the number 2 rated defense? Daboll is awesome at preparing for a game, but it wears off quickly, his in game adjustments suck. Tomlin on the other hand, is perhaps the best HC at in game adjustments.
Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless.
Absolutely. With the Fed’s endless money printing, BTC will continue to appreciate in price. ETF’s have been approved which will also ensure annual TWAP by financial institutions.
current generation is priced out of owning their own home but not yet priced out of owning some BTC.
Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless.
Absolutely. With the Fed’s endless money printing, BTC will continue to appreciate in price. ETF’s have been approved which will also ensure annual TWAP by financial institutions.
current generation is priced out of owning their own home but not yet priced out of owning some BTC.
@vanzack I respect the work you put in. I lurk, i also consider your perspective. I bet we would have some conversations about football. Basic question: Do you think all the time you put in is worth it?
Great question.
I think there is diminishing returns at work here. I think 10 hours is where I get 75% done, and the other 70 hours are 25%. But I am an obsessive person, and if I miss a line move because I wasn't paying attention it kills me.
It is only 5 months a year, then for 3 months (soccer Feb - May) it is 10 hours - then summers are free.
So overall - it is better than a 9-5. And for me, I have come to accept it is all or nothing. Character flaw.
![]()
@vanzack I respect the work you put in. I lurk, i also consider your perspective. I bet we would have some conversations about football. Basic question: Do you think all the time you put in is worth it?
Great question.
I think there is diminishing returns at work here. I think 10 hours is where I get 75% done, and the other 70 hours are 25%. But I am an obsessive person, and if I miss a line move because I wasn't paying attention it kills me.
It is only 5 months a year, then for 3 months (soccer Feb - May) it is 10 hours - then summers are free.
So overall - it is better than a 9-5. And for me, I have come to accept it is all or nothing. Character flaw.
![]()
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless. yes, and yes.
73,550
ATH = 73,750
![]()
![]()
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless. yes, and yes.
73,550
ATH = 73,750
![]()
![]()
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless. Absolutely. With the Fed’s endless money printing, BTC will continue to appreciate in price. ETF’s have been approved which will also ensure annual TWAP by financial institutions. current generation is priced out of owning their own home but not yet priced out of owning some BTC.
Something we can definitely agree on.
![]()
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless. Absolutely. With the Fed’s endless money printing, BTC will continue to appreciate in price. ETF’s have been approved which will also ensure annual TWAP by financial institutions. current generation is priced out of owning their own home but not yet priced out of owning some BTC.
Something we can definitely agree on.
![]()
@vanzack
I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven.
Driven is the only way to be successful.
I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze.
Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics.
You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. Its all just data to me.
Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles.
Well, i respect that you take the time to post here.
![]()
@vanzack
I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven.
Driven is the only way to be successful.
I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze.
Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics.
You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. Its all just data to me.
Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles.
Well, i respect that you take the time to post here.
![]()
@ArtSchlichterJr Yet, the steelers lead the NFL this year in second half Margin. (+9.5) I guess he feeds them Raw meet at half time
@ArtSchlichterJr Yet, the steelers lead the NFL this year in second half Margin. (+9.5) I guess he feeds them Raw meet at half time
@vanzack I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven. Driven is the only way to be successful. I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze. Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics. You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. Its all just data to me. Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles. Well, i respect that you take the time to post here.
Respect.
![]()
@vanzack I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven. Driven is the only way to be successful. I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze. Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics. You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. Its all just data to me. Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles. Well, i respect that you take the time to post here.
Respect.
![]()
Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: @vanzack I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven. Driven is the only way to be successful. I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze. Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics. You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. It’s all just data to me. Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles. Well, i respect that you take the time to post here. Respect.
Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: @vanzack I sensed you are obsessive, in a good way. maybe a better word is driven. Driven is the only way to be successful. I agree with diminishing returns. there is sometime too much information to cover, and absorb. I used to analyze games, actually over analyze. Then I simplified things substantially. Focused on less time on studying football, and sticking to basics. You are definitely a very good handicapper. My strength is data analytics. It’s all just data to me. Our wager styles are different. You do great for your style. I do extremely well, i do alot of live wagers; my best wager this weekend was Broncos -4.5 (-188) after Carolina scored first. Different styles. Well, i respect that you take the time to post here. Respect.
@vanzack
Van-
I seem to find myself in the same boat as you this season. Actually was getting close to giving up for the year until I analyzed things and realized that I am doing things “correctly” and just not getting the results I’m looking for. Coincidentally you and I seem to have winning and losing weeks at the same time consistently even though we don’t have the same plays.
But looking at it from a positive perspective, I believe it’s bound to take a massive turn. Had a good week myself and I think things really start picking up for both of us very soon. I, like you, never do well when favorites are winning and covering like they have been. But every week more data is gathered and the system/process gets stronger. Here’s to a monster 2nd half of the season ![]()
PS- when you have a chance could you shed some light on how you factor in coaching?
@vanzack
Van-
I seem to find myself in the same boat as you this season. Actually was getting close to giving up for the year until I analyzed things and realized that I am doing things “correctly” and just not getting the results I’m looking for. Coincidentally you and I seem to have winning and losing weeks at the same time consistently even though we don’t have the same plays.
But looking at it from a positive perspective, I believe it’s bound to take a massive turn. Had a good week myself and I think things really start picking up for both of us very soon. I, like you, never do well when favorites are winning and covering like they have been. But every week more data is gathered and the system/process gets stronger. Here’s to a monster 2nd half of the season ![]()
PS- when you have a chance could you shed some light on how you factor in coaching?
@ActionMagnet
Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
@ActionMagnet
Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
@ActionMagnet Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
@ActionMagnet Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
@Eddy_Winslow
Gold was around $275 per ounce in 2000. A very wise person told me to start buying as much as I could, might have even been your grandma. God bless her, it's over $2700 an ounce now.![]()
@Eddy_Winslow
Gold was around $275 per ounce in 2000. A very wise person told me to start buying as much as I could, might have even been your grandma. God bless her, it's over $2700 an ounce now.![]()
So far this season, I have been very unlucky. I dont say that as like "I am so unlucky" - some thought that comes to my head or a feeling - truly statistically unlucky. And games aren't playing out the way they have historically. When big favs are winning at historical rates - I am always going to be in trouble. The key is how much to adjust, not to overreact - unless necessary - which is a very tough thing to do. I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season. I assure you - when someone inevitably posts "did you consider the weather" or "how about TJ Watt" - I have considered it. The game last night is a great example of "unluck", my backtest shows that not only should the Giants have covered - but there were several key plays that if they didn't happen... Punt return, many 3rd and longs that were converted - untimely turnovers by the Giants etc.... But that happens. It is all part of it. If I was getting my chips in on bad situations it would mean changes should be made. But so far, I havent for the most part. So I am reluctant to change course. Being down 12ish units is not that big of a deal. It should be about 12% of bankroll. Considering I have averaged about 60 units a season in the green for 7 seasons - would you be quick to change your process after 8 weeks down 12?
You've been very unlucky. In other words, you should never lose. Wow.
So far this season, I have been very unlucky. I dont say that as like "I am so unlucky" - some thought that comes to my head or a feeling - truly statistically unlucky. And games aren't playing out the way they have historically. When big favs are winning at historical rates - I am always going to be in trouble. The key is how much to adjust, not to overreact - unless necessary - which is a very tough thing to do. I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season. I assure you - when someone inevitably posts "did you consider the weather" or "how about TJ Watt" - I have considered it. The game last night is a great example of "unluck", my backtest shows that not only should the Giants have covered - but there were several key plays that if they didn't happen... Punt return, many 3rd and longs that were converted - untimely turnovers by the Giants etc.... But that happens. It is all part of it. If I was getting my chips in on bad situations it would mean changes should be made. But so far, I havent for the most part. So I am reluctant to change course. Being down 12ish units is not that big of a deal. It should be about 12% of bankroll. Considering I have averaged about 60 units a season in the green for 7 seasons - would you be quick to change your process after 8 weeks down 12?
You've been very unlucky. In other words, you should never lose. Wow.
@vanzack Giants should have covered. A punt return td was the difference. And many inexcusable mistakes by nyg offense late, dropping a simple, wide open 3rd down pass for a massive gain in Pitt territory. special Eli.2 making mistake after mistake and then overthrowing his wr by 10 yards to Pittsburgh at the end to lose the backdoor. Prime time games get silly sometimes, but I believe your data had the right side. appreciate your picks and know that a big week is ahead
Don't you factor in special teams when capping a game? It's the reason the Chiefs beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl last year.
@vanzack Giants should have covered. A punt return td was the difference. And many inexcusable mistakes by nyg offense late, dropping a simple, wide open 3rd down pass for a massive gain in Pitt territory. special Eli.2 making mistake after mistake and then overthrowing his wr by 10 yards to Pittsburgh at the end to lose the backdoor. Prime time games get silly sometimes, but I believe your data had the right side. appreciate your picks and know that a big week is ahead
Don't you factor in special teams when capping a game? It's the reason the Chiefs beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl last year.
Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless.
yup. Amazing! What do you think of Ethereum? Its still way down from its all time high
Anyone watching BTC today? Should make any sports betting stuff meaningless.
yup. Amazing! What do you think of Ethereum? Its still way down from its all time high
@ActionMagnet Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
I disagree. Can you carry 5 million dollars worth of gold in your luggage? how are you trading gold? I can send anyone in the world 5M worth of Bitcoin in 5 seconds. The future is digitial once the boomers have passed.
@ActionMagnet Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years.
I disagree. Can you carry 5 million dollars worth of gold in your luggage? how are you trading gold? I can send anyone in the world 5M worth of Bitcoin in 5 seconds. The future is digitial once the boomers have passed.
@ActionMagnet
Your digital prison awaits you. I'm a boomer and glad I won't be in this world when it happens. I may need to croak fast the way things are going.
@ActionMagnet
Your digital prison awaits you. I'm a boomer and glad I won't be in this world when it happens. I may need to croak fast the way things are going.
@ActionMagnet Your digital prison awaits you. I'm a boomer and glad I won't be in this world when it happens. I may need to croak fast the way things are going.
haha best of luck sir. Respect. ![]()
@ActionMagnet Your digital prison awaits you. I'm a boomer and glad I won't be in this world when it happens. I may need to croak fast the way things are going.
haha best of luck sir. Respect. ![]()
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