MNF - Giants / Steelers...

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Quote Originally Posted by jpot34: @ActionMagnet  Any crypto will never have the staying power of physical gold and silver in your hands. It is not a digit on a computer. You do not need electricity to keep it. Any computer crime and your crypto disappears. Gold and silver hidden in the great outdoors is almost impossible to steal. With all the hacking going on, electric grid going down in various segments of the USA, I wish you luck over the next 5 years. I disagree. Can you carry 5 million dollars worth of gold in your luggage? how are you trading gold? I can send anyone in the world 5M worth of Bitcoin in 5 seconds. The future is digitial once the boomers have passed.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@Crusher13 It is totally characteristic for me.  There isnt a possibility I would be on the Steelers tonight.  This is exactly who I am - no fortune tellers involved. TJ Watt is on a defense that is 25th in the NFL in pressure rate.  Why do you think that is?  Because he can be doubled and the rest of the Steelers front cant get to the QB.  So while Daniel Jones is no prize - and you are always taking risks by backing him - with a clean pocket he can produce.  And the Giants should be able to moderately run the ball tonight. What would be uncharacteristic for me would be to lay 6 points in the NFL based on one player.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: @vanzack  I respect the work you put in.  I lurk, i also consider your perspective. I bet we would have some conversations about football.   Basic question: Do you think all the time you put in is worth it? Great question. I think there is diminishing returns at work here.  I think 10 hours is where I get 75% done, and the other 70 hours are 25%.  But I am an obsessive person, and if I miss a line move because I wasn't paying attention it kills me. It is only 5 months a year, then for 3 months (soccer Feb - May) it is 10 hours - then summers are free. So overall - it is better than a 9-5.  And for me, I have come to accept it is all or nothing.  Character flaw.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

So far this season, I have been very unlucky.  I dont say that as like "I am so unlucky" - some thought that comes to my head or a feeling - truly statistically unlucky. And games aren't playing out the way they have historically.  When big favs are winning at historical rates - I am always going to be in trouble. The key is how much to adjust, not to overreact - unless necessary - which is a very tough thing to do. I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season.  I assure you - when someone inevitably posts "did you consider the weather" or "how about TJ Watt" - I have considered it.  The game last night is a great example of "unluck", my backtest shows that not only should the Giants have covered - but there were several key plays that if they didn't happen...  Punt return, many 3rd and longs that were converted - untimely turnovers by the Giants etc.... But that happens.  It is all part of it.  If I was getting my chips in on bad situations it would mean changes should be made.  But so far, I havent for the most part.  So I am reluctant to change course. Being down 12ish units is not that big of a deal.  It should be about 12% of bankroll.  Considering I have averaged about 60 units a season in the green for 7 seasons - would you be quick to change your process after 8 weeks down 12?