***Line Movement System*** Details Included (YTD: 25-9-1)

I want to talk a little bit about line movement in the NFL. The first thing I like to do when capping a game is analyze match-ups.. Look at teams strengths and weaknesses. From that point (like many others), I try to create my own Line for the game and see how close (or far off) I am from the official line on the game.

But there are three things that I always look at when capping a game in the NFL that carry a bit more weight for me. That is, Situational spot playing, Public Perception, and Line Movement. I'm about to go into more detail about the latter two.

Now, for those of you that have been in the game for a while, this is nothing new to you. Anybody that has been gambling on sports for a while, and has been successfull, already knows that theses things are important. So, I'm not trying to school anyone, or suggest that you bet solely on these angles. But, I just thought I would share some information that I've gathered over the first quarter of the NFL season.

First, let's look at Reverse Line Movement through the last 4 weeks:

ex. DETROIT @ DALLAS... DAL comes in as a 3pt favorite.. 80% of the public is betting on DAL, yet the Line moves to DAL -2.5

SEE POST BELOW:

 Still not working! It's saying i can't post over 7800 characters. But I even tried to break it up into several posts and it still won't allow me...Anyway, What I did was break down each and every line movement, along with the public %, and the outcome was alarming.

Here are a few teams that fit this angle in Week 6:

CLEVELAND +3 / +1  (16%)

DALLAS +4 / +3.5  (22%)

PHILLY -6 / -4  (36%)

SEATTLE +4.5 / +3.5  (38%)

I have one example from Week 2 last year that pokes a little hole in my system theory…..same exact scenario but the result was a dog win:

Last year…Cinn (+6/+3.5……45% on Denver) @ Denver….result was Dog Win (Den 24 – Cinn 20).  What was different versus this Philly matchup? 

Therefore, after the analysis is all said and done maybe we do throw out the trends.  We have Philly that can’t score and Detroit that can’t stop anyone (lost to Titans a couple of weeks ago).  I am still on Philly.